Hurricane Isabel is a possible problem for us....

[GeekChic]

Are they? I have this awful sinking feeling that if we try to fly out next Thursday it's not gonna happen I'm trying to convince my husband to change our flights and fly out earlier but so far he doesn't seem to be going for it

 

[JVL1018]

Originally posted by GeekChic
Are they? I have this awful sinking feeling that if we try to fly out next Thursday it's not gonna happen I'm trying to convince my husband to change our flights and fly out earlier but so far he doesn't seem to be going for it

A few posts above, dvcgirl said she heard if it does hit the US it will probably be Friday or Saturday, so actually your timing is perfect! I only wish I had a Thursday flight instead of Saturday.

 

[BoxerMom7]

I am hoping and praying for ALL of us that Miss Isabel takes a turn northwest and stays out to sea.

We are leaving tomorrow a.m. and will just wait and see what goes on. If we have to leave early, that's ok--we will deal with it (at least the adults will--I don't know how I will explain to my DD who is 2.5 years old why we have to leave!). And, if we get stuck in Florida, I'm sure we can deal with that too.
I am concerned more about driving with rough weather than being onsite, having gone through hurricanes before. If travel weather looks bad, we may just have to extend our stay a little.

 

[AdventurerKat]

I leave for Orlando in the a.m. but am coming back the 17th. The last I heard was "later in the week" for when it would hit land, if it does hit land. I don't know what later is but I am assuming Thursday or Friday. I hope everything goes o.k. for everyone.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 130843
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED. DATA FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN
TO 935 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS ARE 139 KNOTS. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 130 KNOTS AND THIS IS PROBABLY ON THE
HIGH SIDE. THE RECON ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF TWO CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS OF 25 AND 35 NMI AND A BAND OF MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EACH EYEWALL...RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS NO SKILL IN PREDICTING IF
THE CURRENT EYEWALL CYCLE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING OR IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION. BEST BET IS TO INDICATE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A WEAKENING
TREND DUE TO COOLER SSTS OR SHEAR THEREAFTER. NEVERTHERELESS...
ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY ERODING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD.
THIS EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTROL HOW CLOSE ISABEL
APPROACHES THE U.S EAST COAST.

HIGH UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE AT LONGER RANGE. THE CONSISTENT AND
GOOD PERFORMER UK MODEL HAS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RELIABLE
GFDL TURNS ISABEL NORTHWARD IN FIVE DAYS AT A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY
FROM THE U.S EAST COAST. BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD SO
FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. AT THIS
TIME...I WOULD NOT EVEN DISCUSS THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE HURRICANE
EASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS IN THE LATEST 00Z RUN AND
ISABEL IS ALREADY WEST OF 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER...THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN PROVIDED BY THE GFS IS QUITE REASONABLE.

NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT
EVER REACH FLORIDA.



So if this thing does hit land, it's starting to look like North Carolina will be the "hot" spot. Hopefully this will just stay at sea.

 

[HurricaneWarning]

NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT EVER REACH FLORIDA

This is from the post above about the NHC discussion of Isabel. So that looks good for all of us going to WDW in the near future. We can only hope that the high pressure ridge doesn't extend to far to the west and keep Isabel out at sea! If not anyone on the east coast start to check your hurricane supplies. A supply checklist can be found here Supply Checklist

Also check out Isabel here HurricaneWarning.net

Stay safe,
Mike W.

 

[GeekChic]

Thank you again Mike for the priceless information these past few days! i've bookmarked your website! (I was the 25,001st visitor, I thought that was kinda cool

I hope this nasty lady stays at sea and doesn't ever make land...folks in the Carolinas we're thinking of you!!!!

 

[Morgid]

Thanks GeekChic for the NC thoughts, looks like we might rock-n-roll again here on the NC coast, but I'm still praying. I did hear a local forcast this am that sounded a bit better for us, so I think we still have a chance. I do wish that direction arrow we seem to have out there pointing our way would be removed (LOL).

 

[Disney-Kim]

Well things are looking up for those of us going to WDW this weekend. But looking bad for the residents of NC and VA.
I am hoping that the airport situation won't be too bad. We fly out Sat Morning.
6 more days....could it go any slower

 

[heart4pooh]

I live in Morehead City, NC, right about in the middle of the current projected landfall!!! We stick out like a sore thumb here on the coast. I was in south Florida during hurricane Andrew. My husband and I have no intention of riding out the storm here. The problem for us is we have tickets to see Dave Matthews in Raleigh on wed night!! We just might have to pack and leave for a couple extra days. Sure wish I was back in WDW. I still haven't had time to do my trip report and it looks like I'll still be too busy to sit and write one this week!! Morgid, where do you live?

 

[doombuggy]

I am starting to get concerned about Isabel htting us here in PA. We are scheduled to go to the Miss America pagent in Atlantic City on Saturday. Here's hoping Isabel stays out in the sea (wishfull thinking, i know)!

Survivor of ~
hurricane Agnes
hurricane David
hurricane Gloria
hurricane Floyd
blizzard of '93
blizzard of '96
blizzard of '02 (Christmas day)
blizzard of '03 (President's weekend)

and too much Weather Channel

 

[Morgid]

I live in Wilmington, things today look a bit brighter, but we've been fooled before, I've seen too many crazy things happen over the years.

 

[NYDisneyMom]

I went from worrying that Isabel will hit while we're in Disney to worrying that it'll hit us at home before we leave!!
We're on Long Island...a Cat. 5 hitting us here could be devastating. Keeping my fingers crossed and saying prayers that Isabel dies down while out at sea and everyone remains safe!

 

[callaghan]

We are on the Jersey Shore and in the same boat you are in. Well I guess it is time to go and buy some bottled water. Here is to hoping his thing dies at sea.
callie

 

[crazymomof4]

most of the computers project it to make landfall on or near the Jersey coast. DH is going to Cape May tomorrow after work to get the boat (you know, that hole in the water we put our money into ) out of the marina, hoping to avoid the rush later on this week.

 

[Camping Griswalds]

I just posted on another board about the lovely Izzy. After almost 12 years of marriage, my DH and I bought our dream home on the water. We can see the Ocean City coastline from our deck. We can travel there by boat in about three minutes. That's the good news...the bad news it looks like it might actually hit us. The last storm that big happened here in I think 1936. It actually created an inlet between us (Ocean City Maryland) and Assategue Island. For those of you who read Misty of Chincoteague about Pony Penning and the big storm...thats us. Well at least I got my dream house insurance. To be honest, it's kind of scarry. The last hurricane that hit here was I believe in 1986 and it was only a Category one. The damage it did was horrifying. Hopefully she'll turn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[jscharf]

Hi all Im on the southshore of long island and we are leaving wed morning early. THe only problem is my 15 year old daugther is not going with us....she couldn't miss that much school I really hope this thing stay away....