Hurricane Irma?

[CAS239]

Unfortunately, some people here are falling into the "please show me what I want to see" mindset and ignoring the actual tracking that is going on with this storm.

It's not ignoring. It could very well go up the east coast.

No one will know until tomorrow likely.

Hopefully it does indeed take a hard right turn

 

[North of Mouse]

As a Florida part time resident I just have to ask what kind of stupid do you have to be to travel to our state to experience the 5th largest storm to ever be recorded in the Atlantic ocean. I of course say this with tongue in cheek, and I know people plan their Disney trips over many years, but I seriously have to ask if people think a major, one of the most major storms ever recorded, will be just cleaned up the day after with a few men and brooms and then its all Dole whips and Peterpan. Folks need to think that if it is a major storm then it will probably take more than a couple cleaning folks to make the results go away. Additionally I cant believe that adding more humans to an environment set to be inundated will make things easier on the safety responders. This baffles me.

I've noticed a trend on this thread. Most all of the ones that live in the southeast have experienced, or have very close knowledge of severe hurricanes and are 'very' cautious and respectful of them. They seem to be the ones that say they would 'never' intentionally go into a 'potential' storm rather than stay away. I do get the frustrations of a messed up vacation, but that doesn't mean go anyway rather than wait, or cancel. Disney is good, but they cannot protect you any better than other hotels. It upsets me that some cannot seem to realize how serious this could be.

 

[Wood Nymph]

"Hi! Hope your plan works out. We thought about doing that all, but when you switch your SW reservations, I was told your ticket then goes to nonrefundable. Aka if something happens and you have to cancel altogether, you're out of luck or only get a travel voutcher in its stead. Did you get that same information, or are you just willing to swallow the cost in the case that Sat morning flight is canceled, or if you decide to cancel your entire trip?" (forgot to insert the quote)

My travel agent didn't tell me that, but I wouldn't be surprised. If so, we'll take the credit.

Our flights with SW are always nonrefundable. I never book the refundable fares. They are all too expensive with SW. The ones we book are always fares that go back on as a voucher if you cancel. So sounds the same to me.

The difference with SWA is that if they cancel your flight, or issue the option to rebook, then you can make one change and it won't cost you more than the price you originally paid for the flight. Then that new ticket becomes just like any other nonrefundable ticket, and you would have to pay the current ticket price to change the rebooked ticket.

 

[HarperLeigh]

I'm watching it right now. Scroll down to the posts and it's live now.

I did. Still don't see it.

 

[Josh125]

I just spent a day in Epcot. I'm hitting Trader Sam's and then crashing. I don't see watching a hurricane model at 2:00 AM in my future.

We did as well, beautiful afternoon. We won't be up either, but rest assured it will be what everyone is looking at tomorrow.

 

[SaintsManiac]

I've noticed a trend on this thread. Most all of the ones that live in the southeast have experienced, or have very close knowledge of severe hurricanes and are 'very' cautious and respectful of them. They seem to be the ones that say they would 'never' intentionally go into a 'potential' storm rather than stay away. I do get the frustrations of a messed up vacation, but that doesn't mean go anyway rather than wait, or cancel. Disney is good, but they cannot protect you any better than other hotels. It upsets me that some cannot seem to realize how serious this could be.

It kind of reminds me of when I "evacuated" to a hotel in downtown NOLA for Hurricane Ivan. Luckily it turned at the last minute!!! We were so stupid to think that was a good idea.

 

[SaintsManiac]

I did. Still don't see it.

I'm sorry. Not sure how else to help. He's about to sign off anyway to go to Buffalo Wild Wings lol.

 

[xiphoid76]

We are flying in Friday. Staying at Polynesian Saturday for 6 nights. Does anyone have any memories of how they handled Matthew? Were any discounts offered on rooms during the stay? Was there food? Should we bring a suitcase of food? Of course, we probably won't know the answers to any of these questions but my mind is racing...I really appreciate this thread - so much good information. Thank you all, please keep posting.

 

[arminnie]

I've lived through Betsy (New Orleans), Alicia (Houston), Katrina (New Orleans), Loma Prieta earthquake (San Francisco), and a couple of tornados.

I'm at WDW right now until the 15th. I'll deal with whatever happens.

 

[BigMac3001]

Sorry! I took it the wrong way. I'm going to blame Irma for the edginess tonight. I appreciate the back up Welcome to the DIS. It can be a bit intense at times lol.

It's ok. I'm flying in to Orlando in 82 hours, so intense is going to be my life for a bit.

 

[HarperLeigh]

I'm sorry. Not sure how else to help. He's about to sign off anyway to go to Buffalo Wild Wings lol.

LOL That's ok. Oh, I wonder if I couldn't see it because I am on my ipad, so no Flash.

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

It's ok. I'm flying in to Orlando in 82 hours, so intense is going to be my life for a bit.

I was there during Matthew and Disney really did a great job. I'll keep my fingers crossed for you, me and everyone else that it veers out to sea.

 

[Josh125]

Where do you see that?

A few different places, I'll copy/paste the best write up I've seen on it. Perhaps bad run is not quite right....you can read it for yourself.

After the 18z GFS operational run had finished, the GEFS ensembles came out. These essentially give a spread of different (but plausible) solutions to the track of Irma. The concentration of these tracks (how clustered they are) determines the confidence you can have in the track. Each individual ensemble member - Bar the operational run, have a roughly equal chance of being correct. The operational has a slightly higher chance as it is run at a higher resolution.

The Operational run from the GFS ended up being close to the edge of the spread of the ensembles. Imagine a bell curve of probabilities, with Florida being the location at the centre of the curve (highest probability), then the operational was to the far right of the curve.

It doesn't mean that this run is definitely not going to happen, it doesn't mean that it is 100% discarded, it just meant that the probability of it being accurate is much lower - And therefore the amount of use it is is also lower.

It is essentially an outlier and as a result is not weighted heavily into any forecast as it is relatively unsupported (at this stage)

 

[SaintsManiac]

LOL That's ok. Oh, I wonder if I couldn't see it because I am on my ipad, so no Flash.

I bet that is it!

 

[BigMac3001]

I've noticed a trend on this thread. Most all of the ones that live in the southeast have experienced, or have very close knowledge of severe hurricanes and are 'very' cautious and respectful of them. They seem to be the ones that say they would 'never' intentionally go into a 'potential' storm rather than stay away. I do get the frustrations of a messed up vacation, but that doesn't mean go anyway rather than wait, or cancel. Disney is good, but they cannot protect you any better than other hotels. It upsets me that some cannot seem to realize how serious this could be.

It "upsets me" that people are making assumption about other people. You have no idea what is going to happen. So chill.

 

[GrumpyFamilyof5]

I'm not trying to be rude, so please don't think I am, but... I live in the panhandle of Florida and have went through many hurricanes, my husband was activated for many through the years and after seeing what they can do, I have cancelled my reservations for the weekend and I guess will have to waste the money I spent on NOJ tickets. This is not something to take lightly at all. Look up what Ivan did and he was only a Cat 3, then look at what Andrew did back in 92, he was a Cat 5 and leveled Homestead. Also search on how wide Irma is she spans over 400 miles, so even if she shifts there will be part of FL if not all covered by her. She would literally have to go out into the Atlantic at this point. I personally will not be taking any chances. I love Disney and it is magical, but even a Disney resort won't hold up to a historic Cat 5+ ... again I'm not saying this to be rude, but out of concern. I pray all will be safe and I pray that a miracle will happen and she will shift to the east back into the Atlantic. I would also like everyone to realize that many stores are out of gas or very high priced gas and are running out of water.... God Bless Everyone, prayers for safety!

 

[wonder whisper]

t

How is using the second most respected track "shopping around"? Who cares about the other possible tracks if they come from unreliable sources??

None of the current NHS projections show Irma screeching to a halt, going in reverse of the north westerly path it has been following and then lurching to the northeast and heading up into the Carolinas. Which is what that foreign site is showing and is -- with all due respect -- speculative wishful thinking.

The present track is to the northwest, because Irma is being pushed in that direction by a high pressure Atlantic trough, which will continue to do that until at least Thursday. Then the NHS is projecting that in the Friday/Saturday timeframe an atmospheric ridge from the east may begin to degrade the trough, causing Irma to move more northerly. By that point, Irma will likely be south of Florida and only then will it become clear if it is going to hit Florida and if so where.

 

[BigMac3001]

t


None of the current NHS projections show Irma screeching to a halt, going in reverse of the north westerly path it has been following and then lurching to the northeast and heading up into the Carolinas. Which is what that foreign site is showing and is -- with all due respect -- speculative wishful thinking.

The present track is to the northwest, because Irma is being pushed in that direction by a high pressure Atlantic trough, which will continue to do that until at least Thursday. Then the NHS is projecting that in the Friday/Saturday timeframe an atmospheric ridge from the east may begin to degrade the trough, causing Irma to move more northerly. By that point, Irma will likely be south of Florida and only then will it become clear if it is going to hit Florida and if so where.

Nice straw man you have there.

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

I'm not trying to be rude, so please don't think I am, but... I live in the panhandle of Florida and have went through many hurricanes, my husband was activated for many through the years and after seeing what they can do, I have cancelled my reservations for the weekend and I guess will have to waste the money I spent on NOJ tickets. This is not something to take lightly at all. Look up what Ivan did and he was only a Cat 3, then look at what Andrew did back in 92, he was a Cat 5 and leveled Homestead. Also search on how wide Irma is she spans over 400 miles, so even if she shifts there will be part of FL if not all covered by her. She would literally have to go out into the Atlantic at this point. I personally will not be taking any chances. I love Disney and it is magical, but even a Disney resort won't hold up to a historic Cat 5+ ... again I'm not saying this to be rude, but out of concern. I pray all will be safe and I pray that a miracle will happen and she will shift to the east back into the Atlantic. I would also like everyone to realize that many stores are out of gas or very high priced gas and are running out of water.... God Bless Everyone, prayers for safety!

I get what you are saying, but comments like "even a disney resort won't hold up to a category 5" is basically fear mongering. There is lots of evidence that Disney builds its permanent structures to withstand very intense winds. I've seen people in Engineering at Disney state they the buildings are designed to withstand 200mph winds. Plus, the forecasted intensity IF it hits Florida is a category 4 at the tip of the state. It will break up slightly if it progresses up the state as it is a 250+ mile run from the tip to Orlando.

 

[DisTXMom]

We are flying in Friday. Staying at Polynesian Saturday for 6 nights. Does anyone have any memories of how they handled Matthew? Were any discounts offered on rooms during the stay? Was there food? Should we bring a suitcase of food? Of course, we probably won't know the answers to any of these questions but my mind is racing...I really appreciate this thread - so much good information. Thank you all, please keep posting.

I seem to recall some pretty good responses on this topic at that time- people making the most of it at the resort. The values were in rougher shape because they mostly had to go outside to get anywhere. If you do a search for hurricane Matthew you'll see some people's discussion of it at the time. Hope it works out.