Hurricane Gustav - Saturday evening update in Post #41

[JimMIA]

Like Fay before it, Hurricane Gustav seemed to spring up out of nowhere. Actually - just like Fay - it had been watched for a couple of weeks as it moved across the Atlantic as a low pressure system that didn't seem like it would ever get going.

However, it finally did get cranked up yesterday, and it's now a Category 1 hurricane.

At this time, it does NOT look like Gustav will threaten mainland Florida, but anyone in peninsular Florida should certainly keep an eye on this storm due to its proximity and strength.

Hurricane Gustav is currently located south of Port au Prince, Haiti, moving NW at 9 MPH. Current winds are 85 MPH with gusts to 105 MPH, making Gustav a mid-range Category 1 storm.

Gustav is expected to reach Category 2 strength before making landfall in Haiti this afternoon. It should weaken slightly moving over Haiti, and will probably drop to Category 1 for a short time.

Given the enviornment in Haiti, damage could be catastrophic even though this will not be a major hurricane at that point. For comparison, Tropical Storm Jeanne killed more than 2,000 people in Haiti a couple of years ago.

After passing over the SW peninsula of Haiti, Gustav is expected to turn to the west, passing to the south or along the southern side of Cuba and then into the Gulf of Mexico. On that path, the storm does not threaten peninsular Florida for the near term, but of course that is subject to change.

The waters in the northern Caribbean are very warm and Gustav will regain Category 2 strength and will possibly reach Category 3 status, which is a major hurricane.

For now, this is just something to be aware of.

 

[donmil723]

Thanks, Jim! When I heard about Gustav this morning, this is the first place I came to for information because I knew you would be on top of it.

My DS and his new wife will be flying into Miami on Sunday evening and leaving on Monday on the Majesty of the Seas for their honeymoon.

So I'll be watching for your posts.

Donna

 

[tecodis]

Thank goodness! Yesterday they were predicting the track to take it up towards Miami by Saturday, my arrival date!


The track has now changed away from central/south Florida!

 

[Chuck S]

Our news, here in the San Antonio area, said once Gustav gets into the Gulf, they expect it to strengthen a lot, maybe cat 4 or 5, because there is, right now, a lack of "steering currents". It may stay fairly stationary in the Gulf and gain strength. It is possible for it to hit almost anywhere along the Gulf Coast when it eventually makes landfall, from Mexico to Florida...it just depends on which way the winds eventually blow.

If it were to continue on the projected path (though it likely will be stopped by a high pressure system) it would be heading for land somewhere between East Texas and New Orleans. But again, with a lack of steering currents, it is anyones guess at this point.

 

[SueBill]

JimMIA,
I don't know anything about hurricanes but my daughter just relocated to Biloxi,Ms. Do you think that she should evacuate? I keep watching the weather channel but I don't really understand everything they keep discussing.

Thanks for your help,
Susan

 

[ssr4me]

hi just wondering if you can give me any advise...... we are coming to vero beach for 5 days then orlando for 14 days from 21/9/08 dont usually come sept its usually may and i have had no dealings with hurricane weather prev. Im a little conserned i know its 3 weeks till we travel and hard to say whats gonna be happening then but do you think things will have calmed by then or do you think there could be more and more of these storms brewing??? (from past experience) from a worried DM

 

[JimMIA]

First of all, this storm does NOT look like it will affect either WDW or VB.

The current official forecast track predicts that Gustav will regain hurricane strength and hit Jamaica as a Category 1 storm. Jamaica just went to Hurricane Warning a short time ago. After Jamaica, the storm is expected to hit Grand Cayman on Friday, also as a Cat 1.

On Saturday, current forecasts project the storm picking up speed and passing between the western tip of Cuba and the NE tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. In the Gulf, the storm is expected to strengthen to Category 2, and then to Category 3, which would make it a major hurricane.

At this point, U.S. landfall is expected somewhere between New Orleans and Galveston, TX (Monday night/Tuesday morning), although I would not be surprised to see that path adjusted to the right a few days from now. It would not surprise me at all to see the storm come ashore between Pensacola, FL and New Orleans.

I also would not be surprised to see that landfall prediction pushed a little later, because the current track calls for the storm to really fly across the southern Gulf on Sunday. If the storm does move as fast as they predict, it might not reach Category 3, IMHO. If it slows down considerably, it could get stronger, as Chuck indicates above. But it will also weaken prior to landfall, when it reaches the cooler waters in the northern Gulf.

As one of the NHC forecasters wrote yesterday, there is "little, if any, skill" in projections more than 3 days out. That is especially true of intensity predictions, which are really not much more than educated guesses. Reliability of position varies 300-400 miles five days out, and intensity estimates have error factors in the 20-30 knot range...which is huge.

If I were watching the storm closely, I would pay a LOT more attention to the 3-Day predictions than any speculation about what happens after that.

 

[JimMIA]

JimMIA,
I don't know anything about hurricanes but my daughter just relocated to Biloxi,Ms. Do you think that she should evacuate? I keep watching the weather channel but I don't really understand everything they keep discussing.

Thanks for your help,
Susan

The short answer is she should evacuate if authorities recommend evacuation.

The problem is, that is not as easy as it sounds, and she should make a plan for evacuation, including when she's leaving, how she's leaving, where she is going, etc. It's not as simple as getting in a car and driving 100 miles inland, because everyone else will be doing exactly the same thing at exactly the same time.

There is a discussion of evacuation on another thread, starting with Post #15. Here's a link: http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=1925939

 

[donmil723]

Thanks for the update, Jim. Sounds like DS and DDIL will be fine flying into Miami on Sunday and leaving on their cruise on Monday. However, now I'm concerned about Tropical Depression Eight which might become Hannah as the kids will be in the Bahamas on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Donna

 

[JimMIA]

hi just wondering if you can give me any advise...... we are coming to vero beach for 5 days then orlando for 14 days from 21/9/08 dont usually come sept its usually may and i have had no dealings with hurricane weather prev. Im a little conserned i know its 3 weeks till we travel and hard to say whats gonna be happening then but do you think things will have calmed by then or do you think there could be more and more of these storms brewing??? (from past experience) from a worried DM

That is truly impossible to say.

Currently, we have three other systems backed up behind Gustav.

The closest - Tropical Depression #8 - looks like it has potential to threaten Florida, but it's too early to tell. But even IF it turns out to be a threat to Florida, it would be gone before your arrival.

The other two systems are much too far out to even guess what will happen with them.

I wouldn't worry about tropical weather until a week before your trip, because it won't be possible to even guess at things until then.

 

[JimMIA]

Thanks for the update, Jim. Sounds like DS and DDIL will be fine flying into Miami on Sunday and leaving on their cruise on Monday. However, now I'm concerned about Tropical Depression Eight which might become Hannah as the kids will be in the Bahamas on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Donna

They'll just have to wait and see.

Ordinarily, I would say "No problem, Mon..." because the cruise ships just sail away from the weather. However, if TD 8 threatens the Bahamas, they could be between Gustav and TD 8.

The cruise companies still have options in those situations, but they'll just have to see what happens. Usually these things have a way of working themselves out.

 

[SLK1]

Gustav is not a threat to Florida; but another tropical depression popped up this morning that looks like it could make a direct hit on the east coast of Florida. That is the one I'm watching...

 

[wildernessDad]

We're going down from Sept 1 - Sept 5. It appears that we'll just miss one on the backside (Gustav) and miss one on the front side (Hanna).

 

[keliblue]

Hello Hanna

We are checking in at Vero Beach on Sept 3rd..

 

[goofy4tink]

The only good thing about Hannah is that someone over on the Transportation board posted a historical graph with storms that were similar to Hannah (inception and early days) and they all just headed off to the north before impacting Florida too much. Here's hoping that's what happens with Hannah...Florida has already had too much constant rain (thankyou very much Fay!!), and I'm supposed to be flying down on Thursday!! Hannah needs to move north before she goes much further west!!

 

[keliblue]

The only good thing about Hannah is that someone over on the Transportation board posted a historical graph with storms that were similar to Hannah (inception and early days) and they all just headed off to the north before impacting Florida too much. Here's hoping that's what happens with Hannah...Florida has already had too much constant rain (thankyou very much Fay!!), and I'm supposed to be flying down on Thursday!! Hannah needs to move north before she goes much further west!!

That would be wonderful !!

Only problem, She's already turning slightly to the south

 

[JimMIA]

That would be wonderful !!

Only problem, She's already turning slightly to the south

Actually, she's moving WNW, and will be until probably Sunday...as you can see from the graphic.

It's WAY too early to get any real idea of where Hanna will end up. We might have a better idea tomorrow...or not.

For now, Hanna is just something to be aware of. And for now, I wouldn't look at anything beyond Saturday AM on these maps.

 

[DisneyMomOfThree]

The only good thing about Hannah is that someone over on the Transportation board posted a historical graph with storms that were similar to Hannah (inception and early days) and they all just headed off to the north before impacting Florida too much. Here's hoping that's what happens with Hannah...Florida has already had too much constant rain (thankyou very much Fay!!), and I'm supposed to be flying down on Thursday!! Hannah needs to move north before she goes much further west!!

Personally, I hope to falls apart. We are headed to HHI the first week of September, I have family in Gulfport, Ms. and I wouldn't want anyone's trip to WDW ruined because we all know how kids can be couped up in a hotel room.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I know Gustav will have me on conference calls all weekend and working the Emergency Operations Center in our part of Louisiana. Everyone else, enjoy your holiday weekend.

 

[Deb & Bill]

JimMIA,
I don't know anything about hurricanes but my daughter just relocated to Biloxi,Ms. Do you think that she should evacuate? I keep watching the weather channel but I don't really understand everything they keep discussing.

Thanks for your help,
Susan

It is tricky getting out of the gulf coast area if you wait too late. Gas stations are already running dry in parts of Louisiana. There are no hotel rooms until you get to Ft Smith Arkansas if you evacuating from South Louisiana. Make sure she has a full tank of gas and a place to go to. Jim Cantore was supposed to be in Biloxi/Gulfport this weekend for the anniversary of Katrina and he has already left town. Does that tell you anything?

Contraflow lanes (meaning nothing heading south, everything going north) in Louisiana will probably start Sat or Sun. LSU football game may be cancelled since LSU is very close to I-10 which is the contraflow route out of New Orleans.

Your daughter should listen to the local authorities like JimMIA suggests. When they say evacuate, she should be ready to go, not planning to go at that point. If she has any pets, she should take them with her, with a hard sided carrying case for the animal, plus any food they may need. We are preparing for 10-15K people to arrive up here in my part of LA evacuating from the south part of the state.

We're not taking any chances this time in Louisiana. They have already been moving patients out of hospitals and moving nursing home residents to hospitals if they can't evacuate them.