Hurricane Earl - WATCH OUT N.C. - update in post #7

[JimMIA]

Just so you know, Hurricane Earl is out there in the North Atlantic. It's a LONG way from being problematic, and probably will pose no threat except to the far NE portion of the Caribbean islands (St. Maarten, Barbuda, etc.)

However, Earl is currently a Category One storm, will become a Category Two tomorrow, a "major" Category Three tomorrow night (Monday), and a dangerous Cat 4 on Tuesday. So it presents an excellent marketing opportunity for cable news and weather and will therefore probably be hyped beyond reason.

The forecast track has Earl turning north and recurving out to the mid-Atlantic just like Danielle did. All of the computer models are in pretty tight alignment and Earl should not be a problem to the mainland US. Not even close. This system should not affect VB, HHI, WDW or anywhere else in the mainland US -- but it's a hurricane, so you never really know.

This is just a heads-up and I will not post further updates unless things change.

 

[smacky1]

Thanks!

 

[helenk]

I noticed that Usairways has issued a travel advisory for 8/29=8/31 for St. Maarten, Netherlands Antilles ; San Juan, Puerto Rico ; St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands

 

[tgj]

Those of us going on the DVC member cruise are carefully watching all of this...

 

[JimMIA]

Those of us going on the DVC member cruise are carefully watching all of this...

Earl is now a Category Three storm, but it should be out of your way by Thursday-Friday. About the only way Earl might affect you would be if they had to delay bringing the boat back in from the cruise they are on now, but I think they have plenty of room to go around.

However, there is another system (Invest 97) which is almost certain to develop into a tropical cyclone probably today. That's the one to watch, although it looks like it's going to track East of the Caribbean and stay some distance out in the Atlantic without bothering anyone.

 

[stephen11]

Thanks, Jim - we are scheduled to fly out of Newark on Friday morning and I'm hoping Earl stays far enough out to sea not to impact our flight...

 

[JimMIA]

Hurricane Earl is now a dangerous Category Four hurricane with sustained winds estimated at 133 MPH, and gusts to 162 MPH. The storm is expected to continue to intensify, although there will be periodic fluctuations in intensity as is common with storms this strong.

In addition, the projected track of this storm has moved somewhat westward and it is now looking like there will be a direct landfall at the Cat 4 intensity.

For reference, Katrina was a Cat 3 when she hit the Gulf Coast five years ago. If you go to the National Hurricane Center site (www.nhc.noaa.gov) and click on Saffir-Simpson Scale, and then on the scale summary, you will see the level of destruction expected from a Cat 4 storm, and it's pretty scary reading.

It is too early to predict WHERE landfall will occur (if it occurs), but the current track indicates the area of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, keep in mind that the "cone of uncertainty" ranges 200-300 miles in either direction at four days out, so the storm could hit anywhere from SC to Maine, with the NC - Mid-Atlantic states area looking the most likely right now.

A huge problem in predicting landfall is the configuration of the coastline and a very slight shift in course of the storm could result in the worst impact moving hundreds of miles northward.

The other thing to remember is that hurricanes are not points on the map. They are huge areas of very bad weather, with really ugly weather sometimes stretching 500-600 miles (Wilma) and hurricane force conditions across a front of 200 miles or more. It's good to look at the projected track maps, but if you look at the satellite photos you'll get a much better idea of how much area a storm like this covers.

This storm could certainly affect Hilton Head if it continues on it's presently-projected course.

Anyone along the middle or upper Atlantic Coast should really watch this dangerous storm.

 

[queendarvet]

Let's hope it goes out to sea. We just returned from OBX and the roads quickly flooded with just a little bit of rain. I can only imagine what would happen with a direct hit. Hopefully everyone is heeding red flag warnings in the surf along the Atlantic this week. Way too many needed to be rescued this past week.

 

[ruthma]

Bump

 

[CocosMeme]

My DH was a "hurricane hunter" at Keesler AFB for 22 years and he has flown into many a storm. He still says that even though progress has been made recently in the tracking of the storms, they very often have a mind of their own! They can stall and be very unpredictable. I know the media likes to hype them but we have tremendous respect for hurricanes and, living on the gulf coast, we get ready any time we are under threat.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

We don't like hurricanes here.

They seem to be exciting news items... unless you live in their paths.

 

[bookwormde]

Look like for most of the night the track has stabilized (stopped being readjusted westward) so that is good news for those of us in the mid Atlantic. Of course anything can happen and with a storm this big an powerful even a near miss can has a major impact.

bookwormde

 

[JimMIA]

I know the media likes to hype them

Yeah, and the unfortunate part of that is that the decibel level of the hype is usually inversely proportional to the quality of the news.

If you look at the NHC site, you get straight facts -- including the facts that they are sometimes as confused as we are. Weather Underground will give you straight facts, plus some very good additional information. Local TV news in South Florida will provide almost the same quality of info as Weather Underground, sometimes better because they live at NHC.

But go to any cable TV channel, or especially the Weather Channel and you're going to get 80% hype and 20% stuff they took straight out of the NHC advisories -- little or no actual reporting.

but we have tremendous respect for hurricanes and, living on the gulf coast, we get ready any time we are under threat.

We do too. We still have some scars and a wrecked economy in part of Miami-Dade County as a result of Andrew in 1992.

 

[JimMIA]

Look like for most of the night the track has stabilized (stopped being readjusted westward) so that is good news for those of us in the mid Atlantic. Of course anything can happen and with a storm this big an powerful even a near miss can has a major impact.

bookwormde

Two things I like about the latest data are that the two models I like the best are on the eastern boundary of the envelope, and the intensity forecast for Friday has been lowered to Cat 3. That's still a Katrina-strength storm, but 3 is a LOT better than 4.

 

[lilpooh108]

Ugh...I'm flying out on Friday late, with a layover in Newark at 5am on Saturday...should I be worried?

CNN just reported that Earl may hit the Carolinas by Friday, and go northward after...

 

[JimMIA]

Ugh...I'm flying out on Friday late, with a layover in Newark at 5am on Saturday...should I be worried?

No, Earl should be in New York City by 5 AM, Newark should be nice.

Naw, seriously...as they say, timing is everything! If you are scheduled to fly into Newark at 5 AM, I'm guessing you'll be flying into someplace else.

It's really too early to tell yet, but I'd expect major disruption in air travel on Thursday and Friday if the storm is anywhere near the coast. When the Northeast gets bad summer storms, the whole commercial aviation system goes down the plumbing, so you can imagine what a hurricane will do. Airlines usually repo aircraft away from the path of the storm, and getting all the pieces back in place is not exactly like flipping a light switch and turning the system back on. The only good thing is it's on the weekend when there are fewer flights.

I'm not sure which way you're going, or where you are headed, but if you're going through Newark, I'd expect to get re-routed...at a minimum. A lot also depends on who you're flying with. The majors are WAY better at resuming operations that the little guys.

CNN just reported that Earl may hit the Carolinas by Friday, and go northward after...

Yep...welcome aboard, CNN! They're right on top of everything!

 

[Ted in Halifax]

It is coming to visit us on Saturday by the looks of things. The problem here ... we have record Heat and warmer than usual oceans. This has us wondering if we are getting nailed.

Our infrastructure is not made for this. I live in the "City of Trees" .... and they all have full foliage on them. Hoping for this to head out to sea early ... and avoids land.

 

[JimMIA]

It is coming to visit us on Saturday by the looks of things. The problem here ... we have record Heat and warmer than usual oceans. This has us wondering if we are getting nailed.

Our infrastructure is not made for this. I live in the "City of Trees" .... and they all have full foliage on them. Hoping for this to head out to sea early ... and avoids land.

I know y'all (Southern US for "you" both singular and plural, eh?) are not used to watching hurricanes. Don't sweat this one too much, for a whole host of reasons.

First of all, at five days out the ONE place you want to be is in the crosshairs...which is exactly where Nova Scotia is at this point. If you had to bet, the one place where the hurricane is most likely NOT to be is where the forecasts say it will be five days out.

With hurricanes, the range that the forecasts show is derisively called the "cone of uncertainty." It's hard to predict where a storm will be one day out, but the place you know it will NOT be five days out is where the forecast says it will be.

Second -- forget the wind. The fact that the Saffir-Simpson scale is based primarily on wind speed is an unfortunate accident that has little to do with damage except at the very top of the scale like Andrew which disassembled major concrete buildings. Water, not wind, is the problem.

Case in point -- Katrina in New Orleans. Category Three storm, but the problem in New Orleans (and throughout the Gulf States) was not the wind. It was the storm surge (tides). IF Earl comes near Nova Scotia, it will only be a Category One storm, which means not a lot of wind. Think Northeaster -- forget the winds.

Three -- pay attention to the tides...whether Earl comes close or not. You NS folks don't know much about hurricanes, but you know a thing or two about tides. With your topography, if the main storm surge hits at low tide, NS will just laugh at it. If it hits at high tide, you may have a storm surge 3-6 feet above mean high tide. That might be a local problem, but with your topography, probably not a major lasting problem.

Long story short, watch Earl but don't freak out.

Go to www.nhc.noaa.gov or http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ for accurate information without the hype. There is a ton of info there, so you have to prowl around a bit, but very worthwhile sites.

Do NOT look at cable TV -- especially the Weather Channel -- they'll scare you to death in the hope of selling you Viagra. Selling stuff is really all they are about and a hurricane is a golden opportunity.

 

[lilpooh108]

Do NOT look at cable TV -- especially the Weather Channel -- they'll scare you to death in the hope of selling you Viagra. Selling stuff is really all they are about and a hurricane is a golder opportunity.

OK seriously that is really funny.

I have a layover in Newark before we fly down to MCO...maybe we'll get "re-routed" directly to MCO...one can only hope.

Don't bash my CNN...I'm a CNN junkie...and yes their weather reports suck and it's always labeled some dramatic thing...WEATHERWATCH 2010, or HURRICANEALERT 2010!! They dramatically draw scribblies all over the touch screen. It's kinda funny actually.

 

[admom]

We are flying out or Newark early Friday...Do you think we will get lucky?? Should we try to resched for Thursday evening?? (Not even sure if we will get any seats!)