Hurricane DEAN

Hi ya, mom2rb. I think we rented points from you to stay at OKW Mardi Gras 2005.

We are owners too now at BWV via resale.

I was in Houston for Hilda (not sure what year but a very very long time ago.)
Stay safe.

Did you evacuate for Rita?

We were at Disney World for Rita. My family came and taped up my windows. Disney sent us over to All Star Sports at a reduced rate. We had annual passes but they let some other family members add on to their tickets for about $5.00. So we just had a very long vacation.
 
That is the best evacuation plan I have heard of. I did not know WDW ever extended park days for $5/day. That is pretty neat.

My mom and I have plans to go to WDW on Sept. 8th for the Orlando Race for the Cure (any excuse for a WDW vacation;).

Dean will be long gone but I sure hope there are none of Dean's younger siblings being hatched down there off the coast of Africa waiting to make a more direct hit on the southeast gulf area.

Mom and I had to stay an extra day in WDW in Sept. 2002 when our trip fell between storms hitting the Louisiana coastline (the New Orleans airport was shut down for a day or two). I'll have to ask for a $5 park ticket extension for mom if we get stuck again this time (I have an AP). I swore I would not try to do WDW in Sept again, but the race for the cure falling on my birthday this year was entirely too attractive. So I am tempting fate once again.

If one hits either Louisiana or Florida around the 8th or 9th, you know who to blame.:rolleyes1
 
I wonder if there are any reservations in the Baton Rouge area still available.
I need to start calling the relatives.

I doubt it. One of the Baton Rouge posters over on the New Orleans thread on the Community board posted yesterday that the BR hotels were almost full. That's what got me on the ball making our reservations. It took some calling to find a hotel in Hattiesburg that still had vacancies.
 

Acccording to the NHC, Dean will be a Cat 5 tonight -- not 3-4 days from now. It's going to hit Jamaica, Grand Cayman, and probably the Yucatan as a Cat 5.

Once it gets into the Gulf, it should lose strength, not gain strength.

I hope Dean does lose stength as it enters the Gulf. I quoted exactly what was said last night, by the forecaster on The Weather Channel.
 
I hope Dean does lose stength as it enters the Gulf. I quoted exactly what was said last night, by the forecaster on The Weather Channel.
Right, I'm sure you quoted them accurately. But that's the problem with the cable news folks -- they're just plain wrong much of the time.

That quote from Weather Channel was about something they thought might happen four days in the future.

However, in reality, the 11 PM, 8/17/07 NHC official forecast (same forecast they should have been looking at) was calling for Cat 5 conditions not 4 days later, but just 24 hours later; and not in the Gulf of Mexico, but hundreds of miles east, south of the Dominican Republic, prior to hitting Jamaica. Here's the exact quote, with 135 Kt being 157 MPH, which would make the storm a Cat 5:

24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.7W 135 KT

This storm has never been forecast to be Cat 5 in the Gulf. Here's the official 11 PM, 8/17 forecast for the storm in the Gulf of Mexico four days later:

96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 110 KT

110 Kt is 128 MPH, and that's a Cat 3, not Cat 5.

I'm sure you reported what you heard correctly, but that's my point with the cable news folks...including the Weather Channel.

Why watch them sell Viagra when you can go to the source and get more accurate, more timely information without the hype?
 
Hurricane Dean continues to move westward, and the forecast track looks as solid as I've ever seen...which makes me think it will change, bit it probably won't. The storm has shifted slightly south and will pass a little south of Jamaica today, then south of Grand Cayman tomorrow, and will pass through the Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday, across the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico and make final landfall again in Mexico Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

The shift to the south undoubtedly helped the Dominican Republic, and hopefully Haiti, avoid most of the problems with the storm. However, if Haiti experienced heavy rainfall, we can expect substantial loss of life due to the socioeconomic conditions there. I haven't seen any reports from Haiti yet.

The intensity of the storm now is Cat 4/5 -- it's right on the borderline and fluctuating up and down due to changes in the internal structure of the storm. For now, NHC is calling it a Cat 4, but it is expected to strengthen to a steady Cat 5 prior to landfall in the Yucatan. Once it crosses the Yucatan into the Gulf, it will decline to a Cat 3 (still a major storm and still dangerous) and will hit Mexico the second time as a Cat 3.

Since the storm doesn't threaten the US or WDW, this will be my last update unless the storm makes a dramatic turn. For accurate info without the hype, go to www.nhc.noaa.gov , the National Hurricane Center's excellent website.
 
Dean -- Thanks for the update!!!

I was getting a bit concerned because we fly out on Wednesday and have to touchdown in Phoenix en route to Orlando and I was hoping we didn't experience any other weather problems as a result of Dean. Prayers to those that might be affected by this over the next few days (especially our neighbors to the south).
 
JimMIA, thanks so much for that link. Looking at the 5 day forecast, we could still be affected, so we're going to keep our eyes on it here in Brownsville.
 
Jim,
Thanks for all your posting on this. We live on the coast, so I have always been an advid Weather Channel watcher. Now, I will switch to Noaa.
 
Well, it looks like Hurricane Dean has reached Category Five status. Dean is expected to hit the Mexico/Belize Yucatan coast tomorrow morning with sustained winds 160+ MPH, gusts very close to 200 MPH, and 12-18 foot waves. If you've ever been to Cozumel or Cancun, you'll know what 12 foot waves would mean.

This storm reminds me so much of Andrew in South Florida in 1992. It is fairly small (a little bigger than Andrew), compact eye (20 mi. vs 10 for Andrew), very strong winds, and moving very fast (which may be the only thing that saves a lot of people).

Hurricane winds only extend across a 100 mile front, but for those unfortunate people right in the middle (the middle 30 miles or so), Dean is going to be like a BIG tornado.

Hopefully, people have evacuated.
 
I agree Jim. I sincerely hope that all that were asked to evacuate did so since the NHC is talking about a 12 to 18 foot storm surge at landfall. Mexico is in for a double whammy since the NHC is also forecasting Dean to hold its hurricane status after crossing the Yucatan and making a second landfall in Mexico. I hope that all will keep those affected in their thoughts and prayers. If you have travel plans to Florida, or live in Florida and/or the Gulf Coast, keep your eye on Invest 92L for potential development, an area of disturbed weather northeast of the Lesser Antilles that has the potential for tropical system development according to the NHC. It is "that time of year" for those of us on the Gulf Coast.
 
If you have travel plans to Florida, or live in Florida and/or the Gulf Coast, keep your eye on Invest 92L for potential development, an area of disturbed weather northeast of the Lesser Antilles that has the potential for tropical system development according to the NHC. It is "that time of year" for those of us on the Gulf Coast.
Yep. Been quietly watching that little jewel since yesterday. From the models, it looks like it will become Felix soon and could be a Cat 1 hurricane in a couple of days. Because of it's proximity to the Bahamas and Florida, the NHC may be issuing watches and warnings on this one before they actually name it.
 
Jim, thanks for your updates. We have loved ones in FL now and have really appreciated your reports.
 



















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