How will this coronavirus scare affect 2021?

[BrytEydBelle]

I think pricing will be low for some time. I love cruising, but until there is a vaccine and a large number of people have been vaccinated for this monster (likely not till next year) I don’t plan to cruise. The idea of being quarantined in a small stateroom is just not appealing. And for new cruisers it is probably even more of a turnoff.

 

[Ccll4]

I wouldn't be so optimistic, yet. It's hopeful that the world population develops some type of immunity due to being infected, but the Virus might mutate just like the general flu.

 

[spiders]

I'm going to answer in two parts:

Initially they will be more expensive -- as in, specifically right now as they deal with people who are re-booking.

After that, they will be cheaper.

Demand for travel in general will be low due to a continued fear and then demand for travel will be low because there are going to be millions of unemployed if these shutdowns last into the summer.

 

[Joe Brig]

It isn't just the virus, we are now dealing with a global economic collapse.

 

[smmco]

It isn't just the virus, we are now dealing with a global economic collapse.

I know a lot of people on these boards think the parks and cruise lines will and should be shut down until June or July’ My thought is if they are still shut down in June we won’t have to worry about cruiselines or theme parks because most of us won’t have jobs.
Some people don’t understand the reality of the economic implications of this. I work with a lot of millennials that don’t remember 2001 or 2008 and this has the potential to be a hundred times worse.

Let’s hope they keep this at 15 days. I hate to say this but saving a few more lives is not worth a global collapse. In the long run that may kill more people than the virus. Especially if it sets off another war.

 

[spiders]

I know a lot of people on these boards think the parks and cruise lines will and should be shut down until June or July’ My thought is if they are still shut down in June we won’t have to worry about cruiselines or theme parks because most of us won’t have jobs.
Some people don’t understand the reality of the economic implications of this. I work with a lot of millennials that don’t remember 2001 or 2008 and this has the potential to be a hundred times worse.

Let’s hope they keep this at 15 days. I hate to say this but saving a few more lives is not worth a global collapse. In the long run that may kill more people than the virus. Especially if it sets off another war.

It’s really disturbing how many people don’t understand basic economic principles. I’ve seen far too many people suggest how Disney will be raising prices to make up for the lost revenue. I just don’t understand how they don’t realize that no one is going to have any disposable income left to travel when this is all said and done.

 

[Karin1984]

It’s really disturbing how many people don’t understand basic economic principles. I’ve seen far too many people suggest how Disney will be raising prices to make up for the lost revenue. I just don’t understand how they don’t realize that no one is going to have any disposable income left to travel when this is all said and done.

Well, the MET Gala 2020 is cancelled so my guess is the Kardashians are going to spend the money meant for their costumes on renting the parks for a few night or a few cruises

 

[Mainsail Minnie]

Let’s hope they keep this at 15 days. I hate to say this but saving a few more lives is not worth a global collapse. In the long run that may kill more people than the virus...

Agreed. It's also not necessarily saving lives if people therefore die because their medications have become unavailable due to production stoppages, or unaffordable due to unemployment. It's very important that most people can get back to work soon. The vulnerable groups need to be helped to isolate themselves, rather than the entire planet coming to a standstill.

 

[crazy4wdw]

I wonder if Disney is going to delay the construction of the new ships?

 

[catali150]

It is really hard to say. We are going to see a huge negative impact on the economy. If there is a long period of social distancing you can expect layoffs across industries. People may not be able to afford a cruise. If that is the case then prices will drop

My thought exactly. I’m worried about myself or my husband getting laid off. Also, our investments dropped, so unless those come back on by the fall I’ll likely cancel our cruise as I won’t want to take a big hit on pulling money out for a vacation. That’s investing for ya.

 

[catali150]

It’s really disturbing how many people don’t understand basic economic principles. I’ve seen far too many people suggest how Disney will be raising prices to make up for the lost revenue. I just don’t understand how they don’t realize that no one is going to have any disposable income left to travel when this is all said and done.

Thank you for posting this! I serious wondered if I was the only one who felt economic collapse was as much as a concern as public health. And I’m an epidemiologist! I’m not worried about coronavirus. I’m worried about our financial security!

 

[Jon Mraz]

Glad to hear others are feeling the same and asking questions like "Is this worth it?"

I saw some calculations:
$7-8 Trillion of value wiped off from the stock market
$5-10 Trillion of hit to our national GDP

We're at 120 deaths now. Maybe we get to 1,000. Let's say it's really bad and we hit 10,000. (Italy at this point has 2,500 deaths).

At 10,000 deaths, it comes out to about $1-2 BILLION per death in economic damage and lost value.

Look, no one wants to see deaths, but we need to keep some perspective. 650,000 people a year die from heart disease. 600,000 people a year die from cancer. The deaths we're seeing from COVID-19 are older patients who are at risk who were going to probably die from heart disease, cancer, and other old age diseases. We don't shut down our country's economy when 600,000 people die from cancer. Why are we doing it now for this virus?

Thank you for posting this! I serious wondered if I was the only one who felt economic collapse was as much as a concern as public health. And I’m an epidemiologist! I’m not worried about coronavirus. I’m worried about our financial security!

 

[BruinEd03]

Glad to hear others are feeling the same and asking questions like "Is this worth it?"

I saw some calculations:
$7-8 Trillion of value wiped off from the stock market
$5-10 Trillion of hit to our national GDP

We're at 120 deaths now. Maybe we get to 1,000. Let's say it's really bad and we hit 10,000. (Italy at this point has 2,500 deaths).

At 10,000 deaths, it comes out to about $1-2 BILLION per death in economic damage and lost value.

Look, no one wants to see deaths, but we need to keep some perspective. 650,000 people a year die from heart disease. 600,000 people a year die from cancer. The deaths we're seeing from COVID-19 are older patients who are at risk who were going to probably die from heart disease, cancer, and other old age diseases. We don't shut down our country's economy when 600,000 people die from cancer. Why are we doing it now for this virus?

Right now the mortality rate is estimated to be between 2-3%. Assume that 50% of the US population gets the disease. 50% of 300 million = 150 million. 1% of 150 million = 1.5 million. 2% = 3 million. 3% = 4.5 million. That's assuming the health system isn't severely overrun. If the health system is severely overrun, the mortality rate could be even higher. On the flip side, if the health system is not overrun, and we have time to develop a vaccine or find better ways to identify those who are sick and quarantine, the mortality rate could drop drastically.

You are saying X # of people are dying from a certain disease. Now how many of those deaths are preventable if there is certain action taken for a limited period of time? I think if heart disease or cancer was contagious, and the effects might be limited if the economy was shut down for a limited period of time, it might actually be an option that people considered.

On the flip side, you are saying the economy will tank. Well, first of all, the stock market is not the economy. Furthermore, the stock market drop was not just because of the coronavirus. There was a huge run up in the stock market and people/companies were looking for reasons to dump the stock.

Second, the economy tanking can be mitigated somewhat depending on governmental and private action (e.g., putting money in the hands of people, who will spend it and naturally keep the rest of the economy afloat). The worst hit may be travel companies, but so long as they are operational, so what? Again, stockholders being wiped out at the end of the day does not really matter all that much to the US economy. If they want a bailout, the first condition would be that they don't layoff people. The economy can and will rebound - just depends on the time.

 

[Jon Mraz]

Yikes. So much to chew here.

Mortality rate - if you look at the countries that have recovered (exclude China because their data is unreliable), the actual mortality rate is no where near where it would approach 1-4 million people dead. These were numbers thrown out to try to scare govts and society to take this virus seriously. I'm not advocating we don't do anything to tamp this down or "flatten the curve", but we have to keep it proportional.

Economy - It's already tanked. We're in a recession. It's not a "will" happen. It's already here. Mass layoffs haven't started in this country yet because this is still relatively new. But what do you think happens when small business (who employ most of the American workforce) can't sustain carrying payroll with revenues down? What happens to the people in the travel industry when their employers can't continue to carry their salaries with no revenue?

Stimulus - As much as we would all love $1000 or $2000 more in our bank account, that won't matter if you can't actually go use it! You do realize that "stockholders" are people's retirement accounts, their savings, the capital for investments into new businesses, endowment funds for schools, pension funds, trust funds for unions' health care, etc.? It's not just Uncle Scrooge who is being affected here.

The solution here is to allow everyone to get this virus, build up herd immunity, wait for the vaccine, accept that there will be casualties and acceptable losses, and allow this virus to normalize in our society as something to watch out for until the vaccine is prevalent. This is what happened previously with the spanish flu, and other epidemics over the years since then. No other time other than war or 9/11 have we just shut down our entire economy and let it grind to a halt.

Right now the mortality rate is estimated to be between 2-3%. Assume that 50% of the US population gets the disease. 50% of 300 million = 150 million. 1% of 150 million = 1.5 million. 2% = 3 million. 3% = 4.5 million. That's assuming the health system isn't severely overrun. If the health system is severely overrun, the mortality rate could be even higher. On the flip side, if the health system is not overrun, and we have time to develop a vaccine or find better ways to identify those who are sick and quarantine, the mortality rate could drop drastically.

You are saying X # of people are dying from a certain disease. Now how many of those deaths are preventable if there is certain action taken for a limited period of time? I think if heart disease or cancer was contagious, and the effects might be limited if the economy was shut down for a limited period of time, it might actually be an option that people considered.

On the flip side, you are saying the economy will tank. Well, first of all, the stock market is not the economy. Furthermore, the stock market drop was not just because of the coronavirus. There was a huge run up in the stock market and people/companies were looking for reasons to dump the stock.

Second, the economy tanking can be mitigated somewhat depending on governmental and private action (e.g., putting money in the hands of people, who will spend it and naturally keep the rest of the economy afloat). The worst hit may be travel companies, but so long as they are operational, so what? Again, stockholders being wiped out at the end of the day does not really matter all that much to the US economy. If they want a bailout, the first condition would be that they don't layoff people. The economy can and will rebound - just depends on the time.

 

[BruinEd03]

Yikes. So much to chew here.

Mortality rate - if you look at the countries that have recovered (exclude China because their data is unreliable), the actual mortality rate is no where near where it would approach 1-4 million people dead. These were numbers thrown out to try to scare govts and society to take this virus seriously. I'm not advocating we don't do anything to tamp this down or "flatten the curve", but we have to keep it proportional.

Economy - It's already tanked. We're in a recession. It's not a "will" happen. It's already here. Mass layoffs haven't started in this country yet because this is still relatively new. But what do you think happens when small business (who employ most of the American workforce) can't sustain carrying payroll with revenues down? What happens to the people in the travel industry when their employers can't continue to carry their salaries with no revenue?

Stimulus - As much as we would all love $1000 or $2000 more in our bank account, that won't matter if you can't actually go use it! You do realize that "stockholders" are people's retirement accounts, their savings, the capital for investments into new businesses, endowment funds for schools, pension funds, trust funds for unions' health care, etc.? It's not just Uncle Scrooge who is being affected here.

The solution here is to allow everyone to get this virus, build up herd immunity, wait for the vaccine, accept that there will be casualties and acceptable losses, and allow this virus to normalize in our society as something to watch out for until the vaccine is prevalent. This is what happened previously with the spanish flu, and other epidemics over the years since then. No other time other than war or 9/11 have we just shut down our entire economy and let it grind to a halt.

I get that China's rates may not be entirely accurate - but right now it's at 4%. Thus, 2-3% is lower than that. In addition, while there may have been more cases of infections that weren't counted. There were also cases of deaths that weren't counted as people were essentially denied access to healthcare and told to die at home. The reason they don't have the number of deaths is that they essentially flattened the curve and stopped the transmission of the virus. South Korea did the same thing, only at an earlier point in time and with better testing. Speaking of economic turmmoil, China and South Korea seem to be OK so far.

As for stocks - if your 401k goes down, it only affects a small population - those who need to withdraw it. That's where that $1,000 comes in. I seriously doubt people will have problems spending that $1,000. Take rent, utilities, groceries, etc.

 

[Jon Mraz]

When all this is done, let's hope "flattening the curve" gets exposed as the fraud it is. The X and Y axis don't have labels on them. Yes, the concept in theory sounds good when you can fit it into this nice clean chart that doesn't have any time horizon or based on actual capacity of hospitals. I can't believe people are just accepting an unlabeled chart as gospel without questioning it. For example, where on the chart does the cost of such "flattening" get represented?

China and S Korea's economies are decimated, especially China's. What do you mean they seem to be "OK"?

$1000 isn't nearly enough for people and small businesses to make through this if it lasts more than 2 weeks.

I get that China's rates may not be entirely accurate - but right now it's at 4%. Thus, 2-3% is lower than that. In addition, while there may have been more cases of infections that weren't counted. There were also cases of deaths that weren't counted as people were essentially denied access to healthcare and told to die at home. The reason they don't have the number of deaths is that they essentially flattened the curve and stopped the transmission of the virus. South Korea did the same thing, only at an earlier point in time and with better testing. Speaking of economic turmmoil, China and South Korea seem to be OK so far.

As for stocks - if your 401k goes down, it only affects a small population - those who need to withdraw it. That's where that $1,000 comes in. I seriously doubt people will have problems spending that $1,000. Take rent, utilities, groceries, etc.

 

[jdb in AZ]

It's really too soon to predict next year's cruising situation. If the unemployment rate is as high as some economists are predicting, fewer people will be able to afford a cruise.

 

[Mainsail Minnie]

We don't shut down our country's economy when 600,000 people die from cancer. Why are we doing it now for this virus?

Fear. That's why. Our nation has been whipped into hysteria.

The "experts" who are advising these extreme measures don't have the foresight to consider the very negative effect an economic collapse will have on the health of millions of people around the world.

 

[mousefan73]

I think for a while they will be booked due to people rebooking current sailings. A lot has to do with how long our global shut-down lasts and the collateral damage it will make on the financial standing of many families. Keeping in mind that the DIS community seems to be immune to financial hardship. ( check out the thread on the community board asking what people will do with their 1000 govt check.. many responses are IMO- disturbing " will apply to my next Disney trip " where this money is meant to feed, house people. But DISers I believe in general are in other income brackets and have nonservice jobs.

My gut feeling there will be many families who right now can afford to reschedule and travel later in 2020/21. I fear many of these families will be in a very different financial place in a few months, next years.. This of course is dependent on how long this crisis lasts. Could be very well 2021 is the beginning of a big recession..

When Mnuchin say 20% unemployment.. things are serious.. Boeing on the edge of bankrupcy.etc..

 

[smmco]

Thank you for posting this! I serious wondered if I was the only one who felt economic collapse was as much as a concern as public health. And I’m an epidemiologist! I’m not worried about coronavirus. I’m worried about our financial security!

You are not alone. I was beginning to think I was the only one. I think when everyone gets over their fear of the virus the reality is going to set in.