How valid are crowd predictor websites?

[MomtothreeEs]

I'm trying to figure out if I should really be concerned or not. I keep coming across different websites that predict how busy a specific WDW park will be on a specific day. Of course the websites don't align for which days I "should avoid", and since we already have ADRs I don't really want to change our plans if it's not needed. Are parks generally busier on days they have EMH in the morning? We made plans to go to MK specifically because of the extra magic hours, but at least two websites say that the day we're planning on will be busy. I'm not sure if I should value that extra hour in the morning more than going on a day that a lower crowd is anticipated? How do they come up with these crowd level predictions?

 

[mesaboy2]

I'm trying to figure out if I should really be concerned or not. I keep coming across different websites that predict how busy a specific WDW park will be on a specific day. Of course the websites don't align for which days I "should avoid", and since we already have ADRs I don't really want to change our plans if it's not needed. Are parks generally busier on days they have EMH in the morning? We made plans to go to MK specifically because of the extra magic hours, but at least two websites say that the day we're planning on will be busy. I'm not sure if I should value that extra hour in the morning more than going on a day that a lower crowd is anticipated? How do they come up with these crowd level predictions?

EasyWDW explains his rationale pretty much day-by-day. Touring Plans uses historical data and puts it through a magical statistical machine.

But, pretty much all agree that EMH days are busier. They generally succeed in luring onsite guests to that particular park for the day.

EMH Mornings are still worth it, if you discipline yourself to get there before EMH starts so you can take advantage of it. A couple of hours after, the advantage disappears as more people are drawn to that park--even if they completely missed the AM EMH.

 

[vicb]

That's the beauty of park hoppers, you can do am emh, make a lunch ADR then head to a less crowded park after 4 hours.

That said, we never do morning emh anymore because we are not morning people, we do rope drop at non emh parks. But when our kids were little we did morning emh at MK to get thru Fantasyland rides.

 

[DisneyMomma81]

We purposely avoid EMH parks even though we've stayed on site for our previous WDW visits.

 

[Micca]

Someone once posted here with respect to crowd calendars: "Pick your weatherman."

I'm sure these folks work hard to come up with accurate predictions, but just like the weather anything can happen at any time.

If you're going to WDW during a typically crowded time, plan to make some rope-drops and schedule your FPs as best you can. Even during busy times, folks get a lot done during the first hour or so early in the morning. I believe it may have been the Unofficial Guide that stated you can do more during the first two hours of the day at MK than you will for the rest of the day. Seems that most people on vacations just don't want to get out of bed too early.

In our 50+ trips to the parks (mostly during slower time periods) MK gets busy at some point every day. DHS is probably second to attract the crowds due to a smaller area with several thrill rides. Epcot is less of an issue, and we don't have many priorities in AK to comment on.

 

[ellie05]

They are usually accurate I use more than one when planning our trips.

 

[CanadianPaco]

They are usually accurate I use more than one when planning our trips.

We're the same. I like to review both Easy WDW and Touring Plans and make my park choices based on a variety of info including what we like to do.

 

[JennyDrake]

I go to WDW 3-4 times each year (late April/early May, early/mid August, early November, early December) so I am not there during peak times. I do not use crowd calendars for planning, but I usually check them against my experience upon return. I put almost NO credibility in predictions, especially over the past 2-3 years when there is no *slow* time as we knew it 10-20 years ago.

I'll echo PPer--rope drop at EMH park, then hop to another.

 

[JennyDrake]

I go to WDW 3-4 times each year (late April/early May, early/mid August, early November, early December) so I am not there during peak times. I do not use crowd calendars for planning, but I usually check them against my experience upon return. I put almost NO credibility in predictions, especially over the past 2-3 years when there is no *slow* time as we knew it 10-20 years ago.

I'll echo PPer--rope drop at EMH park, then hop to another.

 

[GovieMom]

I put almost NO credibility in predictions, especially over the past 2-3 years when there is no *slow* time as we knew it 10-20 years ago.

I agree; we've found from our recent trips that the crowd prediction sites greatly underestimate crowd levels.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

The crowd ratings on easywdw are relative to the six months before that date and the six months after that date. A "1," "2," or "3" on the crowd calendar does not indicate an empty park. Nor is it comparing crowds to past years. If you choose a date with a lower crowd level, it means that it's some of the lowest crowds this year. Those crowds are much higher than 2002, 2009, 2011 etc. but the low numbers are useful in picking the least crowded days this year.

 

[PJ]

This is our 2nd retired Winter 20 minutes from WDW.

For the 4 months we're here we've used the combination of the easywdw crowd level estimate and most recommended park to decide if we're going to go to a park, and which one to go to. Since we have AP's (and 4 mos available), we have pretty much only gone on days with an estimate of 4 or less, and stick to Josh's most recommended park.

We recognize that its just an estimate, but we haven't been disappointed yet following his recommendations.

Others where we stay laugh at me - at the beginning of the Winter I set up a spreadsheet for all 4 months with the date, crowd estimate #, and list the parks on order for each date most recommended to least recommended. What can I say - I was a Business Analyst for 28 years before I retired

 

[tina.tina]

I think it really does help to read the stuff on EasyWDW to see how he makes his decision. Plus, it's free. I had a Touring Plans subscription when we went and things changed right before our trip.

We went during Spring Break and most days were 8's and 9's. The best thing to do is have a good attitude.

On our first full day I was upset that my family was slow and we weren't making the 8am rope drop. We got on the bus to the Magic Kingdom at 8:00am & I was really aggravated. We hadn't eaten & I did NOT stop in the food court to eat because we were so late. On the bus to the Magic Kingdom, I took some deep breaths & made myself relax. I realized that my attitude would make things better or worse. I was the one with the high expectations. My kids just wanted to have fun. We went to the Main Street Bakery & had a good (leisurely) breakfast. Then we went & tackled Fantasyland. We still got a lot done because we were there pretty early. So it was a good lesson to me that even though things might not go exactly as planned, sometimes they turn out just fine. Our breakfast was great, our tummies were full, and we were relaxed. It was a great way to start out the day.

 

[Animal]

If you are going March 16-24, go to the park the calendar tells you to avoid! The studios has morning EMH the day before and evening EMH the day after? Don't go to the studios that day! MK has evening EMH, MSEP, and Wishes? *That's* the park to go to that day! Maybe MK closes early one day for some random reason? Avoid MK like the plague! Why would you possibly pay for a full day when the park closes at 7?!

 

[mesaboy2]

If you are going March 16-24, go to the park the calendar tells you to avoid! The studios has morning EMH the day before and evening EMH the day after? Don't go to the studios that day! MK has evening EMH, MSEP, and Wishes? *That's* the park to go to that day! Maybe MK closes early one day for some random reason? Avoid MK like the plague! Why would you possibly pay for a full day when the park closes at 7?!

What calendar are you referring to, and what day does MK close at 7:00p in late March?

 

[Mickeynutty]

Just started a thread on this topic. I would avoid using touringplans advice!

 

[DisneyDad222]

We used to rush out to get to the early emh park and found that there were many people just like us who wanted to get there early and get their day started. Then one trip, we had tickets to the not so scary parade, but we're disappointed hat all the lines were so long during the after hours party. We watched the parade and decided to just come back to MK the next day to do more rides. To our surprise, the park was essentially deserted the next morning at 9am. We were able to walk on to every ride with no line until about 11:30am. We couldn't believe it. Since then, we've always tried to avoid the early emh park and we try to target the park that had the late emh the night before. Has seemed to be a good strategy to avoid crowds for the last few trips.