How reliable is UPS's estimates?

[bicker]

I'm tracking an inbound package. This is what it says on UPS' website:

Your package is on time with a scheduled delivery date of 06/07/2007.

Package Status: In Transit - On Time
Scheduled Delivery: 06/07/2007
Shipped to: BURLINGTON, MA, US

Package Progress

Location Date Local Time Description
BERKELEY, MO, US 06/04/2007 8:55 P.M. ARRIVAL SCAN

ROLLA, MO, US 06/04/2007 6:54 P.M. DEPARTURE SCAN
06/04/2007 6:20 P.M. ARRIVAL SCAN

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK, US 06/04/2007 5:51 A.M. DEPARTURE SCAN
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK, US 06/01/2007 5:54 P.M. ORIGIN SCAN
US 06/01/2007 10:36 P.M. BILLING INFORMATION RECEIVED

Now, figuring it's gone such a short distance between the time it left Oklahoma City and now, is it really possible that it will arrive the day after tomorrow?

 

[eeyoreiscool]

Their estimated delivery dates are pretty accurate. The weather might mess it up but it has to shut down airports or roads first. I have never understood how it takes so long to go the first part but they are probably trying to get it to a main distribution center.

 

[SeaSpray]

I'm tracking an inbound package. This is what it says on UPS' website:
Now, figuring it's gone such a short distance between the time it left Oklahoma City and now, is it really possible that it will arrive the day after tomorrow?

It's been my experience that UPS delivers exactly on the date they say it will be delivered on

 

[Green Tea]

UPS is always on target.

 

[bicker]

Okay, I'm game. I'm going to plan on it arriving on time and make follow-on arrangements for the purchase from there.

 

[Hannathy]

The first part of your dates are over the weekend. Regular packages don't move on the weekend very often. I have a package that shipped out the same day as yours sat over the weekend and was delivered yesterday. UPS I would say delivers things 99% of the time when they estimate they will. My Dates and times looked very very similar but I had a shorter distance after it left OK.

 

[MareQ]

You're good. Often times UPS won't move ground packages over the weekend - plus when they do move very often their website won't be updated for HOURS - sometimes not even until AFTER you have received the darn thing.

90% of the time they're fantastic though - so you should be fine

 

[Beth76]

Berkeley MO is near the airport in St. Louis, if that makes you feel any better. It's probably in the air right now.

 

[bicker]

I still haven't seen a departure scan entered rom Berkeley MO. It's basically spent a full 24 hours there.

 

[sweet angel]

I've had packages delivered earlier than the estimate.

 

[cardaway]

They are not guesses. They pretty much know exactly when and how the package will move from place to place. I have yet to have one be wrong yet, even if the inbetween info was a little behind the actual movement of the package.

 

[bicker]

My installation appointment is Tuesday, so if it doesn't arrive on Thursday, no biggie, but if it sits in Missouri another day, I'm going to start getting nervous!

 

[cardaway]

It's hard to explain, but very possible to see them travel further in one day than it had the two or three previous days. It's all about the way the feeder trucks are planned.

Typically on the day it was esitmated to arrive we will see it leave the local hub and be out for delivery. Sometimes without having any updates the days before and then just that morning. That means the feeder truck actually did come from the other location directly to the local hub.

 

[SeaSpray]

It's hard to explain, but very possible to see them travel further in one day than it had the two or three previous days. It's all about the way the feeder trucks are planned.
Typically on the day it was esitmated to arrive we will see it leave the local hub and be out for delivery. Sometimes without having any updates the days before and then just that morning. That means the feeder truck actually did come from the other location directly to the local hub.

This has been my experience too; it looks like the package is sitting in one place for a day or so, and then next thing you know, the next location is very close to where you are. I hope it gets there on time for you

 

[Hedy]

It's been my experience that UPS delivers exactly on the date they say it will be delivered on

Agreed. Although, I live a half mile from our local sorting site, so my data may be skewed.

 

[poohandwendy]

They are not guesses. They pretty much know exactly when and how the package will move from place to place. I have yet to have one be wrong yet, even if the inbetween info was a little behind the actual movement of the package.

I agree, they are usually right on time if not earlier than I expect.

 

[diznygirl]

UPS tracking is usually pretty accurate. I love it when it says "out for delivery."

 

[bicker]

The package was scanned in at the Chelmsford center (our local dispatch center for UPS) last night at 8:30 PM. It seems strange that the package was never scanned, from the time it arrived at the Berkeley, MO center, until the time it arrived at Chelmsford. No departure scan from Berkeley, and no scans at all in between. I'd figure that the package had to get transferred at least once along the way, no? (They couldn't have a truck dedicated to make the Berkeley to Chelmsford run each day, could they?)