How often are there discounts on direct purchases?

[Cyberc1978]

Why?

They charge instant profit for management which they already do with the hotels.

They control DVC right now which is partnered with their hotels and does whatever they want.

They get to take nonbooked rooms to rent for cash and keep a good portion of cash for free.

It literally makes no sense unless Disney is selling off WDW.

If Disneys Financials are as bad as some claims then selling off DVC could bring in a nice chunk of cash. Not saying they would but it would be a way of getting a lot of money.

 

[intamin]

If Disneys Financials are as bad as some claims then selling off DVC could bring in a nice chunk of cash. Not saying they would but it would be a way of getting a lot of money.

It might be a way to get a lot of money in the short term but if its one of the few things actually making you profit and helping the business afloat as a whole would you get rid of it? The goal isn’t to have a bunch of cash on hand immediately, it’s to have a business model that will be profitable for years to come. Disney+ on the other hand is hemorrhaging money, hence the cuts. Disney obviously thinks DVC is worth investing into with the building of VDH, poly tower, cabins at FW. If Disney is truly strapped for cash, we’ll see a pause on DVC expansion like we did during the pandemic when Reflections was put indefinitely on hold.

 

[WeIcomeHome]

I haven't dug into their financials but if i had to guess I'd expect their parks are still a cash cow but inflation is eating up some of their margins, box office has been a disappointment between less moviegoers and putting their movies on Disney+ too quickly. DVC is likely profitable and helps cover hotel expenses and creates a baseline for parks admissions.

Biggest change I foresee is cutting back on expenses tied to streaming. Content is expensive and streaming is a crowded field and difficult to attract new customers while keeping current subs. A lot of people bounce from service to service for a month or two at a time, watch the new content then cancel and move on.

Iger trying to increase P/E for the stock holders doesn't mean the business is struggling financially.

 

[WeIcomeHome]

The reason I feel like some nice discounts are coming has more to do with higher interest rates making financing less appealing and inflation rating up household savings that accumulated during the pandemic years.

 

[MyDogTink]

I feel like the company itself isn’t building new resorts/hotels and is relying on DVC/DVD for new lodging or Tishman owning and Marriott operating the Swan and Dolphin. They gave GF hotel space to DVC and the new large resort (RIV) and resort that didn’t happen (Reflections) are DVC.

 

[take36]

I feel like the company itself isn’t building new resorts/hotels and is relying on DVC/DVD for new lodging or Tishman owning and Marriott operating the Swan and Dolphin. They gave GF hotel space to DVC and the new large resort (RIV) and resort that didn’t happen (Reflections) are DVC.

Probably because timeshares are really profitable and despite us (dvc members) justifying the savings from our points…timeshares are a great deal for those that sell them!

 

[grease1739]

I know that there is no way to know for sure, but after this promotion ends at the end of May, is it likely VGF would go back to $250 a point if DVC sells enough? I can’t see them opening up CCV at a promo price so soon. VGF, CCV and Poly are the only properties I’d consider buying at the $217 price(plus promo discount) I’d be a new buyer and have very little feel for these direct sales and worry VGF will jump up to $250 again and I’d have missed my chance at a decent direct price point.

 

[intamin]

I know that there is no way to know for sure, but after this promotion ends at the end of May, is it likely VGF would go back to $250 a point if DVC sells enough? I can’t see them opening up CCV at a promo price so soon. VGF, CCV and Poly are the only properties I’d consider buying at the $217 price(plus promo discount) I’d be a new buyer and have very little feel for these direct sales and worry VGF will jump up to $250 again and I’d have missed my chance at a decent direct price point.

No. When they increase the price for resorts they're actively selling it's typically in 10 dollar increments. They won't do a 33 dollar jump. The guides will typically know when a price increase is going to happen. When I was first buying my direct Riviera contract they knew the price would be increasing from 207 to 217 on December 4th so I bought 2 days before the jump in price and it has been at that price since. The incentives or promo discount as you call them are what typically has more variation.

 

[Cyberc1978]

I haven't dug into their financials but if i had to guess I'd expect their parks are still a cash cow but inflation is eating up some of their margins, box office has been a disappointment between less moviegoers and putting their movies on Disney+ too quickly. DVC is likely profitable and helps cover hotel expenses and creates a baseline for parks admissions.

Biggest change I foresee is cutting back on expenses tied to streaming. Content is expensive and streaming is a crowded field and difficult to attract new customers while keeping current subs. A lot of people bounce from service to service for a month or two at a time, watch the new content then cancel and move on.

Iger trying to increase P/E for the stock holders doesn't mean the business is struggling financially.

I would just hate if DVC ended up like every other timeshare being worth pennies on the dollar, I know if you keep your contract to the end it will and that's fine.

Increasing P/E for shareholders is normally a good thing, but as everything else it just depends on how you do it.

 

[Cyberc1978]

I know that there is no way to know for sure, but after this promotion ends at the end of May, is it likely VGF would go back to $250 a point if DVC sells enough? I can’t see them opening up CCV at a promo price so soon. VGF, CCV and Poly are the only properties I’d consider buying at the $217 price(plus promo discount) I’d be a new buyer and have very little feel for these direct sales and worry VGF will jump up to $250 again and I’d have missed my chance at a decent direct price point.

The only way to lock in at a know price is to buy now.

Depending on the financial winds you could see a better price on RIV, VDH or any of the other resorts that DVC is actively selling or even at the sold out resorts. My guesstimate is that the financial situation will become worse during 2023, which in turn will bring back good promos.

If you really want to go direct, I would wait and see which way the winds blow. But if YOU feel that the only way is up from here, I would consider buying now.

Another option is to buy a smaller contract resale now. The prices on some resorts are really low right now, personally I got SSR for $81 pp. When DVC does promos etc there are always new member pricing and existing member pricing. Existing member pricing is lower that for new members. With the reale contract you are a member and are qualifying for existing member pricing.

So if you plan on buying 200 points you could split it between 50 resale and 150 direct. BUT if you end up buying 200 direct even with 50 resale because the promo is better on 200 then you end up spending more money overall but you also have more points.

 

[Sandisw]

I know that there is no way to know for sure, but after this promotion ends at the end of May, is it likely VGF would go back to $250 a point if DVC sells enough? I can’t see them opening up CCV at a promo price so soon. VGF, CCV and Poly are the only properties I’d consider buying at the $217 price(plus promo discount) I’d be a new buyer and have very little feel for these direct sales and worry VGF will jump up to $250 again and I’d have missed my chance at a decent direct price point.

It won't go to that big of a price jump until it is considered "sold out" again, and it is no where near that...

 

[kmm227]

I do not think they would sell off DVC but I do think they are going to look at other areas of their business and either merge them or sell them off. Meaning anything outside of the parks

 

[sethschroeder]

If Disneys Financials are as bad as some claims then selling off DVC could bring in a nice chunk of cash. Not saying they would but it would be a way of getting a lot of money.

Their financials being bad doesn't mean you sell of a portion core business unit.

If they sold of DVC it essentially would be a signal that Disney is pulling out of Florida and devesting from WDW moving forward.

Additionally if they wanted to swiss hole their WDW property they would be better off selling actual land or selling a 100 year lease to Hilton or Marriot where those companies could go all out on their own resort. Heck even put in the ability for them to pay to have a private entrance to the park created at Epcot as an example.

 

[Nursemanit]

The real issue is the streaming - you don’t cut off your arm when you break your leg. DVC is only at risk if DVC is not making money.

 

[crisi]

If they ever find themselves unable to sell their new resorts it will be time to sell…. Assuming they can find a buyer willing to pay what it’s worth (which I kind of doubt)

They could sell while continuing to build (and sell) new resorts. Their big profit isn't once they start managing the resorts, its in selling the resorts to start with. Then selling the management of those resorts to another company for a guaranteed in your pocket profit now would be financially astute idea. I don't think they'd sell the resorts, they'd sell the right to manage those resorts for the remaining term of the contract, leaving them in ownership of the land. And some company will take it based off guaranteed profit, and if Disney thinks they can get a better return on the cash in hand than they get on the management fees, they'll do it.