how much more can it go?

[jerseyduke]

First: let me say that this is not meant to be a debate about financing a DVC purchase. That gets done ad nauseam.

With the news of the the up coming price increases, there is a suggestion that VGF will shoot to 180 per point,

Now using my data (150 points purchased at 150$ per point).

If I were to buy that post price increase, I would pay 4,500$ more than I payed 18 months ago.

Now, let's say I financed 20,000 of it when I first bought it for 5 years at 9% (which is only 10 percent down), amortized over 5 years means I would have paid 24,910 back on my loan (4,910 in interest) plus a down payment

That is a total difference of 410$ in price! That is it. How much can they keep going up?

 

[MountainMouse]

First: let me say that this is not meant to be a debate about financing a DVC purchase. That gets done ad nauseam. With the news of the the up coming price increases, there is a suggestion that VGF will shoot to 180 per point, Now using my data (150 points purchased at 150$ per point). If I were to buy that post price increase, I would pay 4,500$ more than I payed 18 months ago. Now, let's say I financed 20,000 of it when I first bought it for 5 years at 9% (which is only 10 percent down), amortized over 5 years means I would have paid 24,910 back on my loan (4,910 in interest) plus a down payment That is a total difference of 410$ in price! That is it. How much can they keep going up?

Hard to tell how high they can go. 180 may not even be the limit for monorail resorts. Prices at GF, Poly, and CR are extremely high and less likely to be discounted and folks buying at VGF know what it costs to stay there without DVC and realize the discount.

I'll be interested to see what DVD does to entice folks to a higher price point once they build out the monorail resorts and build another resort further out.

 

[sndral]

Hard to tell how high they can go. 180 may not even be the limit for monorail resorts. Prices at GF, Poly, and CR are extremely high and less likely to be discounted and folks buying at VGF know what it costs to stay there without DVC and realize the discount.

I'll be interested to see what DVD does to entice folks to a higher price point once they build out the monorail resorts and build another resort further out.

But didn't I read that the deluxe resorts were running at a high vacancy rate and thus the retro DVC infill, which suggests they've priced many of their deluxe rooms at more than the market will pay.
When you couple price per point inflation with needing to buy more points to reserve a villa, I do wonder how the numbers are sustainable. But I am fiscally conservative and I suspect the DVC direct buy audience has a lot of buyers who define affordability as being able to 'afford' the monthly payments.
Since so many finance direct buys it will be interesting to see what happens when interest rates return to norm, particularly if wages continue to stagnate.

 

[MountainMouse]

But didn't I read that the deluxe resorts were running at a high vacancy rate and thus the retro DVC infill, which suggests they've priced many of their deluxe rooms at more than the market will pay. When you couple price per point inflation with needing to buy more points to reserve a villa, I do wonder how the numbers are sustainable. But I am fiscally conservative and I suspect the DVC direct buy audience has a lot of buyers who define affordability as being able to 'afford' the monthly payments. Since so many finance direct buys it will be interesting to see what happens when interest rates return to norm, particularly if wages continue to stagnate.

I hadn't heard that the deluxe resorts were running at high vacancy. Some are certainly more vacant than others, AKL seems to be pretty available but I don't know that any have an occupancy problem. Disney appears very good at controlling demand, they could lower prices if necessary but they just keep raising so I have to think demand is fine.

I'm astounded at how the point prices have raised and will be more so if they do raise again. That said, I can't argue with how they've sold VGF and I expect that they will sell poly at a reasonable rate as well.