How much is the lack of AP sales affecting DVC?

[tidefan]

So, I've had a lively discussion with folks over on the Parks board about APs. I personally think that it is a big factor in what is going on in the DVC market currently. Folks over there think that it isn't. I know that it's been discussed here on the DVC boards, but as members, how has it affected you? I know that we, without APs, now have WAY too many points for what we need. I don't think many of the people over there understood how many DVC members had APs, not just to go multiple times a year, but I knew many people that got them just to get 2 trips out of them over different years (early July one year, late June the next). Am I wrong on this?

 

[Brian Noble]

I'm in Camp Not a Huge Factor. Non-Floridian APs haven't been sold for about a year and a half. The DVC sales dip is much more recent, and I think more easily explained by the macroeconomic environment.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

Well, even though I was one who disagreed with you on the other thread, I would not say that you are wrong!! We just have a slightly different slant on the topic, and I'm no more right or wrong than you are! I expect many DVC members are reconsidering their ownership seriously since APs might not be available to them. And many wouldn't buy them if they were available.

 

[Anthony1971]

For us No... I have found since we have DVC we go to the parks less. Its a vacation to relax and do some things...
I could see having an AP at the old prices just to eat some places in the parks and maybe hit an attraction but with the new pricing (I know not even an option now) No. There is just really a lot more to do at Disney or better a lot of other ways for them to take our money.

 

[Matty B13]

No cheap AP, no need to go to WDW more than once a year for this family. So no need for anymore DVC points already have enough for 1 week.

 

[tidefan]

I'm in Camp Not a Huge Factor. Non-Floridian APs haven't been sold for about a year and a half. The DVC sales dip is much more recent, and I think more easily explained by the macroeconomic environment.

Brian, I guess I'm thinking more specifically about add-on sales (as well as folks unloading points). I fully realize the economic headwinds, but when I looked at how it had specifically affected us over the past three years in terms of how our visit pattern changed, I was shocked (though its pushed us to Aulani more, which I'd say is a good thing )

 

[nalabear]

Lots of points to allow for upgrades; or just rent out. Go to WDW once every 2 years so no APs not an issue. So DVCs are frequent short stay goer's and those probably had APs that didn't lapse.

New DVCs will adjust without the APs and Disney has lots of data to decide whether it's significantly impacted sales or travel. Or simply replaced by higher per stay spends per unit (either through rentals or concentrated DVC spend).

The recent drop of sales is economy; not lack of APs availability IMHO.

 

[Anthony1971]

I will also add Believer or not in if when we are in a Recession one is thing is certain housing markets are dropping DVC is a part of that market and being considered a Condo will drop first, faster and lower then the housing market as it did back in the late-mid 2000's... Add a Dropping housing market to a Recession and prices will come down real fast... Last go around there were people who bought and sold a few years later and made $.

 

[Brian Noble]

when I looked at how it had specifically affected us

There are going to be lots of individual situations. Many people will have planned purchases that they deferred, add ons not taken, etc. But, from Disney's point of view, the individual decisions do not matter all that much. What matters is the volume of points sold and the price at which they are selling. Or, to put it another way: what is the sum total of all of those individual situations.

And up until the last few months, that "sum total" looked just fine for Disney Vacation Development.

If the absence of APs were a material drag on sales, I would have expected to see some evidence of it a long time ago.

Plus, Hawaii is awesome.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Brian, I guess I'm thinking more specifically about add-on sales (as well as folks unloading points). I fully realize the economic headwinds, but when I looked at how it had specifically affected us over the past three years in terms of how our visit pattern changed, I was shocked (though its pushed us to Aulani more, which I'd say is a good thing )

The number of resale contracts is staggering. DVC Resale Market alone has over 1,000 listings. AP’s, or the lack of, are degrading DVC ownership. People are realizing this, and IMO, is a big factor in resales.

 

[Brian Noble]

The number of resale contracts is staggering.

But that's also a much more recent phenomenon than the discontinuation of APs. To (partially) quote James Carville: "It's the economy."

I openly admit I could be wrong about this. But I am always skeptical when DISers--who are in no way representative of the average Disney fan or DVC owner--are sure they know the reasons for something, and those reasons are based on their own beliefs and experiences.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

But that's also a much more recent phenomenon than the discontinuation of APs. To (partially) quote James Carville: "It's the economy."

I openly admit I could be wrong about this. But I am always skeptical when DISers--who are in no way representative of the average Disney fan or DVC owner--are sure they know the reasons for something, and those reasons are based on their own beliefs and experiences.

No doubt the economy is a factor. But not being able to purchase AP’s further degrades ownership and causes more expenses. DVC is suppose to save us money. Removing perks causes more expenses. Magical Express, TIW, as well as AP’ s all contributed to savings on a WDW trip. Now, DVC is not the savings it once was.

 

[Brian Noble]

Magical Express ended more than a year ago. TIW has been gone since the pandemic started. Do these things matter at the margins? Sure. Are they anywhere near the most important reasons why direct sales have slowed and resale prices dropped over the last several months? I'm skeptical.

 

[kilik64]

Just my opinion with no data to back it up, but I would be willing to bet if you DID have the percent of owners who had an AP back when you could easily buy one when you want, it'd be a fairly low percentage.

 

[tidefan]

Magical Express ended more than a year ago. TIW has been gone since the pandemic started. Do these things matter at the margins? Sure. Are they anywhere near the most important reasons why direct sales have slowed and resale prices dropped over the last several months? I'm skeptical.

I agree with you on a lot of this. I think my take, with APs specifically is that the market it really affects is the add-on market. After all, if you aren’t going multiple times a year, you won’t need as many points. Perhaps that market isn’t as big as I thought it was.

Actually, I think that the recent direct sale woes are also at least in part because the delta with resale is getting so much larger over the past few months. But, my thought there was that people may be getting rid of points as perhaps now they find they suddenly have more than they need. It will be interesting over the next few years to see how it plays out.

 

[tidefan]

Just my opinion with no data to back it up, but I would be willing to bet if you DID have the percent of owners who had an AP back when you could easily buy one when you want, it'd be a fairly low percentage.

Really? Every other owner we knew had them. That said, we are in Alabama and it is a 5-9 hour drive from here, so it’s not a representative sample…

 

[tjkraz]

Brian, I guess I'm thinking more specifically about add-on sales (as well as folks unloading points). I fully realize the economic headwinds, but when I looked at how it had specifically affected us over the past three years in terms of how our visit pattern changed, I was shocked (though its pushed us to Aulani more, which I'd say is a good thing )

From the sales side, numbers were good (some would say excellent) until fall 2022. That included nearly a year without any AP sales.

In the winter, direct sales have declined. But that decline has been coupled with a poor economy, massive direct price increase, falling resale prices and the looming start of VDH sales. If the only thing that changed was resumption of AP sales, I'm not convinced direct point sales would be significantly better.

And the same is true on the selling side. The volume of resale contracts has been building since February / March of last year. IMO it started with the usual seasonal increase that comes with dues bills arriving in January '22. Then it was compounded by things like Chapek, the whole HB 1557 thing, people realizing they didn't need as many points coming out of COVID, Disney reducing ROFR activity and surprisingly low launch day prices on VGF.

(Sidebar: think about this...when VGF sales re-opened in March 2022, a current member could add 200 points for as little as $186 each. At that same time, points for BWV and BCV were selling in the $170s-180s resale. You could flip a 2042 report for almost the same cost as a resort that doesn't expire until 2064--more than double the years--picking up all of the direct purchase benefits in the process. I know there are people who did exactly that. Or at least tried until prices began to fall in earnest.)

When someone decides to sell, I think there are a variety of factors which play into that decision. While lack of APs is probably one of those factors, I'm not sure that it's a tipping point for many owners. If AP sales resumed tomorrow, I don't think a lot of contracts would be pulled off the market with owners exclaiming "never mind, I'll keep all of my points now."

 

[kilik64]

Now, DVC is not the savings it once was.

Its the same savings its always been, a discount on pre-purchased rooms at Disney locations.

 

[tidefan]

If AP sales resumed tomorrow, I don't think a lot of contracts would be pulled off the market with owners exclaiming "never mind, I'll keep all of my points now."

Strangely enough, from a personal perspective, that’s exactly where we are (though we haven’t listed yet).

(Noted that this is just our personal situation and is not representative as the whole)

 

[SL6827]

Could some DVC members have just given time for the APs to come back and they haven't so times up? They are listing?