How much higher can Disney go?

[Rush]

Considering the point total for direct blue card benefits has recently been increased to 150, how much higher can Disney logically go?

We bought in just over 2 years ago when the requirement was 75 points, it’s crazy to think it’s doubled in that short time. But with the increase to 150 points, that takes the total over a 1 full week studio stay at nearly every resort with a couple noticeable exceptions in the highest seasons. The price per point can continue to go higher no doubt, but haven’t they reached a point now where any future increases to points required would remove anyone who buys in for a full week in a studio from becoming a full member with the benefits of DVC ownership, further pushing people to just buy resale then anyway.

If Disney isn’t going to give them a blue card, what would be their incentive? Future resort stays? Surely that wouldn’t be enough.

DVC had been around for 20+ years when we bought in in 2019 at 75 points, to then double that in 2 years seems like Disney has over played their hand on that front, or at the very least reached a logical ceiling, no? Again, price per point is a whole other animal that seems to have no limit going forward.

We had recently considered buying more direct to assure when we leave our contracts to our daughters they’d both have blue cards, but at 150 points it was a bridge too far for us knowing we already had a blue card, and had no guarantee the girls would want them or could afford them later. I can only imagine a new person buying in now having a real problem not getting the blue card if they were buying in at the studio level. Or is it that blue card membership benefits have eroded so much that the only difference in the future may just be the new resorts restrictions, essentially removing the whole blue/white issue all together? Disney can just escalate the points charts to match that requirement, so what am I missing?

 

[Yinn]

Considering the point total for direct blue card benefits has recently been increased to 150, how much higher can Disney logically go?

We bought in just over 2 years ago when the requirement was 75 points, it’s crazy to think it’s doubled in that short time. But with the increase to 150 points, that takes the total over a 1 full week studio stay at nearly every resort with a couple noticeable exceptions in the highest seasons. The price per point can continue to go higher no doubt, but haven’t they reached a point now where any future increases to points required would remove anyone who buys in for a full week in a studio from becoming a full member with the benefits of DVC ownership, further pushing people to just buy resale then anyway.

If Disney isn’t going to give them a blue card, what would be their incentive? Future resort stays? Surely that wouldn’t be enough.

DVC had been around for 20+ years when we bought in in 2019 at 75 points, to then double that in 2 years seems like Disney has over played their hand on that front, or at the very least reached a logical ceiling, no? Again, price per point is a whole other animal that seems to have no limit going forward.

We had recently considered buying more direct to assure when we leave our contracts to our daughters they’d both have blue cards, but at 150 points it was a bridge too far for us knowing we already had a blue card, and had no guarantee the girls would want them or could afford them later. I can only imagine a new person buying in now having a real problem not getting the blue card if they were buying in at the studio level. Or is it that blue card membership benefits have eroded so much that the only difference in the future may just be the new resorts restrictions, essentially removing the whole blue/white issue all together? Disney can just escalate the points charts to match that requirement, so what am I missing?

As high as they want.

As long as it remains a topic of "Is blue card worth it?" on the boards, there is room to go up.

The reality is that it's one of many things that does aid with direct sales. Regardless of what the actual benefit is, if the average purchase size is 100 points, why have blue card at 75? If the average sales size is 200 points, why have it at 150 points? If I was on the other side of the table, I'd say bump it up just above the average contract purchase, let's see if we can get another 10% out of the purchase and convince people to step up just a tad more. Even if the only benefit is a digital blue card instead of a digital white card.

 

[Sandisw]

It used to be higher than 150 and that’s when resort point charts were lower than the newest ones have come out.

Granted prices were less but as long as DVD can make the sales, they will keep going

 

[sssteele]

Blue cards aren't digital. It's one of the most significant of the blue card perks I recieve. Just kidding. We buy discounted APs. Just renewed for a sizeable savings.

 

[RoseGold]

Even a couple years ago, the most meaningful part was a few hundred bucks off APs. It took years just to break even, and people here view that as a win. Smaller families might never break even. They view paying thousands of dollars and then "getting it back" as a discount. Brilliant, really.

The Blue Card matters because it does what DVC was intended to do, allow you to trade into the whole system. That's what kept DVC so valuable and made it unlike other timeshares. It remains to be seen if the resale restrictions will change that quality over the years and as the resorts get more and more locked down.

If the gap between direct and resale gets too large, which I guess is the point?, it might encourage a whole third class of locked down resale buyer. I totally would have gone resale RIV if it were substantially cheaper than O14.

 

[fixerupper]

I'm more like, how much higher can the price go? There used to be a much higher minimum, but the price was like a third of what it is now, and the points went a lot further. So the same amount of money bought a lot more and buying was more accessible. Now with the new point charts you need more points anyway, and the total cost is getting way out of reach.

 

[sssteele]

We bought at BCV in 2002, when resale wasn't a big thing. Can't remember the minimum buy in at the time, but when we bought we got a 200 point contract, followed very soon afterward with a 2nd contract (100 points) at the same resort. Those contacts now can be sold for over twice what we paid per point. Used the AP discount every year since it was available to DVC members. (thousands of $$ saved) Certainly we are very happy with our membership. We also have dozens of hats we received at Welcome Home Wednesdays. Yes, we go several times a year, so often that we bought 4 other contracts (200 ar Boulder Ridge and 200 at AKV). All those contracts, of course, were bought at "bargain basement" prices compared to the "crazy" prices today. If I had to do it at today's prices, I probably wouldn't be able to buy nearly as many points.

 

[sethschroeder]

But with the increase to 150 points, that takes the total over a 1 full week studio

150 isn't getting you a room for 7 nights in a majority of rooms majority of year at RIV or VGF.

Then add in a week vacation is really Friday to Sunday imo or 9 nights.

Finally it's better to get people towards 1BR point totals to take some stress of studios.

I could seem them capping out around 175-200 points though for blue card.

 

[Rush]

I could seem them capping out around 175-200 points though for blue card.

I guess this was my ultimate point. I feel like there has to be an upper limit since the points charts are fairly stable for the next 3 to 4 decades. I mean, isn’t part of the argument about CCV is that the sheer number of studio sized contracts sold far exceeds the number of studios available in the year? A similar situation exists, with much less pressure on the studios, with the high point bungalows at the Poly. That would at least suggest that a large number of new buyers are buying in with the idea of studio bookings. Of course that isn’t universal, but has to put downward pressure on sales for smaller contracts as the minimum buy in goes higher. Especially as price per point continues to rise exponentially.

 

[sethschroeder]

I mean, isn’t part of the argument about CCV is that the sheer number of studio sized contracts sold far exceeds the number of studios available in the year?

I did a post on it CCVs issue is that over 30% of the points sit in rooms not that often booked in Cabins.

The benefit of higher baseline contracts is more people in the 1BR.

Also I can see the minimum new buyer direct purchase being higher than the blue card minimum. Could we possibly see VGF be a min of 200-250 points for a new direct buyer?

I just really think Disney is slowing raising the minimum to not shock anyone and to get to a point where most new buyers buy direct and have little want to buy another full 150 point resale contract since they might only need an extra 50-75 points.

 

[Heather07438]

It used to be higher than 150 and that’s when resort point charts were lower than the newest ones have come out.

Granted prices were less but as long as DVD can make the sales, they will keep going

I think that’s mportant to remember. Wasn’t it like 225 points minimum buy in at first. iirc over $11k in 1990s dollars. And the L14 didn’t exist.

Now today there’s more value seen in experience over tangible goods. There’s more global travel. More WDW to enjoy.

DVC is not inexpensive though. Even with DVC some people still pay $400, $1000 or more a night. That’s just the beginning. They’ve committed to buying expensive tickets and food etc every trip. 100s of thousands if they stay with the contract.

I’m not sure there’s room to go much higher in the near term. Over the next few years there will be global competition for travel dollars as economies try to recuperate. That $10k on a WDW trip could go a lot further elsewhere.

 

[Rush]

I think that’s mportant to remember. Wasn’t it like 225 points minimum buy in at first. iirc over $11k in 1990s dollars. And the L14 didn’t exist.

Now today there’s more value seen in experience over tangible goods. There’s more global travel. More WDW to enjoy.

DVC is not inexpensive though. Even with DVC some people still pay $400, $1000 or more a night. That’s just the beginning. They’ve committed to buying expensive tickets and food etc every trip. 100s of thousands if they stay with the contract.

I’m not sure there’s room to go much higher in the near term. Over the next few years there will be global competition for travel dollars as economies try to recuperate. That $10k on a WDW trip could go a lot further elsewhere.

All very good points. I would also suggest in addition to competition for discretionary spending, ever rising price per point x rising minimum buy in not only prices a lot families out of DVC in general, but it’s getting to where even the financing many relied on to justify affording it (when they probably shouldn’t have) won’t even be able to afford the monthly payments financing used to be able to make work. I’m not sure all the pixie dust in WDW can fix that.

 

[Heather07438]

All very good points. I would also suggest in addition to competition for discretionary spending, ever rising price per point x rising minimum buy in not only prices a lot families out of DVC in general, but it’s getting to where even the financing many relied on to justify affording it (when they probably shouldn’t have) won’t even be able to afford the monthly payments financing used to be able to make work. I’m not sure all the pixie dust in WDW can fix that.

Yeah things could get harder. If inflation climbs fast that’s going to leave people with much less money leftover for fun stuff.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Considering the point total for direct blue card benefits has recently been increased to 150, how much higher can Disney logically go?

We bought in just over 2 years ago when the requirement was 75 points, it’s crazy to think it’s doubled in that short time. But with the increase to 150 points, that takes the total over a 1 full week studio stay at nearly every resort with a couple noticeable exceptions in the highest seasons. The price per point can continue to go higher no doubt, but haven’t they reached a point now where any future increases to points required would remove anyone who buys in for a full week in a studio from becoming a full member with the benefits of DVC ownership, further pushing people to just buy resale then anyway.

If Disney isn’t going to give them a blue card, what would be their incentive? Future resort stays? Surely that wouldn’t be enough.

DVC had been around for 20+ years when we bought in in 2019 at 75 points, to then double that in 2 years seems like Disney has over played their hand on that front, or at the very least reached a logical ceiling, no? Again, price per point is a whole other animal that seems to have no limit going forward.

We had recently considered buying more direct to assure when we leave our contracts to our daughters they’d both have blue cards, but at 150 points it was a bridge too far for us knowing we already had a blue card, and had no guarantee the girls would want them or could afford them later. I can only imagine a new person buying in now having a real problem not getting the blue card if they were buying in at the studio level. Or is it that blue card membership benefits have eroded so much that the only difference in the future may just be the new resorts restrictions, essentially removing the whole blue/white issue all together? Disney can just escalate the points charts to match that requirement, so what am I missing?

I think it is inflation more than anything.

 

[Brian Noble]

Considering the point total for direct blue card benefits has recently been increased to 150, how much higher can Disney logically go?

I suspect that at some point DVD will introduce tiers of ownership, with the "Blue Card" being the minimum. This probably means introducing new perks for higher tiers so there is no issue of grandfathering, and every current owner can experience the same sense of FOMO.

 

[Brian Noble]

That's what kept DVC so valuable and made it unlike other timeshares.

Most points-based timeshares have the same basic reservation rights whether you bought directly or from someone else: Wyndham, HGVC, Bluegreen, and WorldMark all work this way. The exceptions are Marriott (you have to pay a fee to re-qualify resales) and DIamond (you have to buy new points to wash "dirty" resale points).

 

[RoseGold]

Most points-based timeshares have the same basic reservation rights whether you bought directly or from someone else: Wyndham, HGVC, Bluegreen, and WorldMark all work this way. The exceptions are Marriott (you have to pay a fee to re-qualify resales) and DIamond (you have to buy new points to wash "dirty" resale points).

You're right. As other timeshares have upped their game, and Disney keeps playing games, like the resale restrictions, it's hard for me to argue for direct DVC anymore as a special product. The O14 is still a special product IMO, based on quality and pound per pound value against expensive hotels. But O14 has a limited shelf life.

The thing that would dramatically change this assessment to me is if DVC were to add exceptional experiences into the overall mix, like a room at the Star Wars Hotel. IMO, that would be like the incredible AKL was in the 90s, a completely unachievable experience anywhere else, in a well-run timeshare system. This could even be paid and crazy expensive, which respect the level of enthusiasm this fanbase has: like special DVC meetings with Disney people or a sneak preview or an extra hour or a booking window or a special presentation about the new thing, or I can keep going with a million ideas that cost Disney nothing and could even make them money.

 

[AvidDisReader]

150 isn't getting you a room for 7 nights in a majority of rooms majority of year at RIV or VGF.

Then add in a week vacation is really Friday to Sunday imo or 9 nights.

Finally it's better to get people towards 1BR point totals to take some stress of studios.

I could seem them capping out around 175-200 points though for blue card.

When my wife and bought our first contract, we sat down and figured out what a full week in a one bedroom would be. That is how we came up with 220 points. So I actually do not believe a minimum of 150 points for a blue card is a negative.

 

[Wendysofftoneverland]

We went to a DVC tour in January 2020 when it was 100 points. Hard to believe it increased so much since then. We weren't in a position to buy then (as I am not interested in financing a timeshare), and now I can't rationalize a 150 point purchase. We usually go to Disney for 5 days at a time and I'm not really interested in Riviera. Hoping to own DVC someday, but it will definitely be resale for us.

 

[MBTigger]

We went to a DVC tour in January 2020 when it was 100 points. Hard to believe it increased so much since then. We weren't in a position to buy then (as I am not interested in financing a timeshare), and now I can't rationalize a 150 point purchase. We usually go to Disney for 5 days at a time and I'm not really interested in Riviera. Hoping to own DVC someday, but it will definitely be resale for us.

Unfortunately, resale has been rising at an unbelievable rate lately. If you are prudent about your UY and when you buy DVC, your first set of points can come with significantly prorated MF's. The time savings, prorated fees and a better "welcome home" visit service, I would say is worth at least $15 per point - but you might feel different.

If I were to buy today, I would probably go with OKW or SSR new. The savings of direct vs resale has reduced in the last 8 months to where the ability to book future resorts, the current discounts (provided they hold - I know) and the possibility of discounted passes ( If / When they return) might be worth an extra $5-6K for my 200 pts.

Which is exactly what Disney wants me to think. I am such a sucker!
I have been debating about selling my contract and buying new. Depending on SSR resale value and the presale price, as a west coaster, DLT may be the tipping point....