I too am in your shoes. This is how I figured what I would need. I have a family of 5...to adults, a 5 year old boy, a 2 year old boy, and a 1 year old girl. Personally I think this is a great time for me to get into the
DVC.
about 4-5 years ago my wife's parents took the family to Orlando and we rented a house. Back then it was 12 of us, now it is 17 of us. I want to be able to return the favor, but rather than stay in a house off property, I want to stay in my BLT with a MK view in a Grand Villa. I'll also need a studio as well, since the Grand Villa only sleeps 12.
I thought I would do this ONLY in adventure season, and I did the math for 6 nights including 1 Friday, and if I remember correclty, I'm looking at 706 points. I'm OK with taking 3 years of points to pay for this, so I divided 706 by 3 and got 235.3. I figured I had to get 236 points to do this.
Then I looked at what I could get wtih 236 points in BLT...and I can spend a week there when the kids are bigger, nearly in any season. Having 5 in the family nearly guarantees that no matter where I stay a double room at a value resort or a studio at DVC won't get me what I need. I'm looking at suites or one bedrooms vacation homes.
This 236 points should also get me the 236 developer points, and I might take my 5 year old and his friend down to WDW for his birthday later this year...maybe staying at the Treehouse resorts at SSR.
Those were my thoughts in determining my points. I was going to go with straight 160, but figured that I'd kick myself later when I needed/wanted more points.