ELMC
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jul 4, 2011
- Messages
- 2,932
I would actually argue differently. I can't speculate how most people learn about DVC, but I learn about DVC because the Grand Californian rack rates cost $500 plus tax per night, and as I try to find cheaper ways to stay there, I found out about DVC and VGC.
This is a valid point. My contention, however, is that you are in the minority. Friends of mine who know I own DVC and know what it is about still book directly through Disney or through a travel agent when they choose to visit. I would suggest that whatever motivated you to come to these boards and learn more about Disney and DVC is what motivated you to make this informed decision regarding your lodging. We DISers are a small minority of Disney fans out there, and the DVC board is a small subset of the DIS. My evidence of this is the fact that Disney continues to sell out of those $500 rooms with cash guests.
I agree with you that the rental price per point is mostly a function of supply and demand within DVC rather than direct booking prices. However I think direct booking price does have an effect on rental points in the long run. We are talking about products that are almost perfect substitutes.
I agree that they are almost perfect substitutes. But I wonder how many people are actually aware of this. Obviously my position is that the number is very small. As always, I could be wrong about that. Like I said before, after reading The Ultimate Guide to WDW by Len Testa I found out about the benefits of rope drop and using a touring plan. I usually log all the superheadliners I want to experience and five or six other attractions within the first two hours of the park opening. You would think that most people would follow this strategy instead of waiting 45-90 minutes for a ride. But they don't. www.touringplans.com 's own research suggests that less than 1% of guests have been introduced to this information. Fastpass is about as easy as can be, but people jump on line to wait 60 minutes for an attraction that has a FP return time 70 minutes out. I have no idea why they do this, but they do. Perhaps it's a combination of not knowing and not caring. Just because something exists, doesn't mean people are going to take advantage of it. I think that the percentage of Disney visitors that are truly educated in all things Disney is very, very small.
I am curious as to why you think direct booking and rental DVC are two completely separate customer bases. Just because the vast majority of direct booking customers are unaware of DVC rental option doesn't mean they are not driven by the same economic motives when they become aware of the option. Don't the DVC direct sales people try to pitch the savings by comparing to booking direct? Didn't we buy DVC because it's a cheaper way to stay at a Disney property? Then how can direct booking prices have no impact on DVC?
I agree with all the points you make above. I think you may have misinterpreted my position on this. A point was brought up that DVC point rental prices are influenced by direct booking prices. I don't believe this to be true. I think that the price of DVC point rentals are controlled by basic economic principles, among other things. I also think the point rental brokers have an enormous influence over the fair market value of rental points.
To answer your question, my opinion is that the vast majority of people who book Disney rooms direct have no knowledge of the option to rent points. I also think there is another group who knows about this but feels it is too risky. For the most part, though, once someone discovers this option, they typically cease being a customer who books direct. It is at that point that they either become point renters (and realize the savings to be had) or they become DVC owners (by comparing long term ownership to long term renting). Once they enter this space, they cease to become direct booking customers, in my opinion. That is why I feel they are two separate customer bases. One group has no knowledge, and the other group gains the knowledge and (for the most part) enters a different marketplace, the point rental market.
Disney is well aware of the point rental market, yet they rarely seem to react to it. If they did, I feel there would be a much smaller difference between cash room prices and the cost of staying in that same room using rented points.