How long do you think before the borrowing restrictions end?

[mamaofsix]

Pricing out a contract at VGF2, and trying to decide if I should factor in the 50% borrowing restrictions in my decision of how many points to buy or not.

How long do you think it will be before the borrowing restrictions end?

 

[DeeBee3]

I think until they sort out all the points and make-up travel from covid. Who knows when that will be, but they must be running the numbers.

 

[erionm]

Keep in mind that banking & borrowing are not guaranteed to always be available. They could end the process completely, or modify it permanently.

 

[drusba]

DVC has the discretion to suspend or vary banking or borrowing according to circumstances that develop (which happened because of the pandemic). Moreover, there is no guarantee it has to remain or become the ability to borrow or bank up to 100% annually. It is noteworthy that when DVC was created in the early 1990s, and during its first five years, the actual borrowing limit was 50% (changed to 100% about the time VB was added as a DVC resort). Since 50% was the original rule, nothing stops DVC now from keeping it at 50% forever.

I suspect it will come back but not until after the total excess point issues smooth themselves out -- e.g., even now many members still have large numbers of banked points with the result that demand for reservations in 2022 and 2023 have shown to be higher than prior pre-pandemic years, e.g., many room types that almost never disappeared pre-pandemic before 7-months out at some resorts during the lower demand seasons have actually done so for some of those times in 2021-2022.

 

[J-Dog]

DVC has the discretion to suspend or vary banking or borrowing according to circumstances that develop (which happened because of the pandemic). Moreover, there is no guarantee it has to remain or become the ability to borrow or bank up to 100% annually. It is noteworthy that when DVC was created in the early 1990s, and during its first five years, the actual borrowing limit was 50% (changed to 100% about the time VB was added as a DVC resort). Since 50% was the original rule, nothing stops DVC now from keeping it at 50% forever.

I suspect it will come back but not until after the total excess point issues smooth themselves out -- e.g., even now many members still have large numbers of banked points with the result that demand for reservations in 2022 and 2023 have shown to be higher than prior pre-pandemic years, e.g., many room types that almost never disappeared pre-pandemic before 7-months out at some resorts during the lower demand seasons have actually done so for some of those times in 2021-2022.

A few years ago I would have said that Disney wouldn't do that, because it would be terrible for PR, but we all know what Disney has done lately with other things, like DME, and they don't seem to care...

 

[tjkraz]

A few years ago I would have said that Disney wouldn't do that, because it would be terrible for PR, but we all know what Disney has done lately with other things, like DME, and they don't seem to care...

There was no ideal solution to managing the points overage created when all resorts closed for 3 months and some even longer. Allowing extensions and short-notice cancellations was undeniably the most member-friendly approach, but it left us in a spot where there are more points in circulation than accommodations available.

Again they could have left all rules unchanged, prompting members to scramble for every accommodation available with millions of points expiring in 2021 and 2022 because there were no rooms left and points ineligible for banking. The limit on borrowing was designed to alleviate some of that.

In this particular instance, it's probably not fair to condemn "Disney" when Disney Vacation Club made a variety of member-friendly exceptions which they were not obligated to do.

 

[CarolMN]

A few years ago I would have said that Disney wouldn't do that, because it would be terrible for PR, but we all know what Disney has done lately with other things, like DME, and they don't seem to care...

IMO, DVC had a good reason for suspending borrowing. It was necessary to prevent many, many members from completely losing points they had no opportunity to use, due to the pandemic closures. Suspending borrowing helped to spread the pain across the entire membership and over a longer period of time. That mitigates the pain. DVD also deserves credit for donating some of their developer points to help offset the glut of points that were a result of granting that extension to many of the affected members.

 

[hhisc16]

Does keeping the borrowing restrictions help or hurt Disney?
Do they make more or less or the same amount of money?

 

[J-Dog]

There was no ideal solution to managing the points overage created when all resorts closed for 3 months and some even longer. Allowing extensions and short-notice cancellations was undeniably the most member-friendly approach, but it left us in a spot where there are more points in circulation than accommodations available.

Again they could have left all rules unchanged, prompting members to scramble for every accommodation available with millions of points expiring in 2021 and 2022 because there were no rooms left and points ineligible for banking. The limit on borrowing was designed to alleviate some of that.

In this particular instance, it's probably not fair to condemn "Disney" when Disney Vacation Club made a variety of member-friendly exceptions which they were not obligated to do.

I understand their reasoning for the 50% restriction.

I was responding to the poster that said that DVD has the right to take away banking or borrowing completely. Basically I meant that I didn't used think that they would take those things away because it would look really bad on them, but anymore, I don't know.

 

[drusba]

Does keeping the borrowing restrictions help or hurt Disney?
Do they make more or less or the same amount of money?

My sense is that would be anyone's speculative guess, including Disney's. Have point sales been hampered because of the borrowing rule? From new purchasers likely not. For add-ons from existing purchasers, maybe there are some who are holding back because of that reason. However, likely any possible hold back from new purchasers and for add-ons has to do more with such things as all the uncertainty resulting from the pandemic, price increases, and possibly the new Riviera resale restrictions. Even if DVD sees fewer sales, it can easily write that off for now as more likely a problem resulting from the pandemic.

The borrowing rule should not otherwise have a negative impact on Disney in general. The DVC rooms are still getting filled or close to full before any given arrival date, and thus you still have close to the same number of people staying in DVC rooms going to parks, restaurants, stores and spending money accordingly.

 

[hhisc16]

My sense is that would be anyone's speculative guess, including Disney's. Have point sales been hampered because of the borrowing rule? From new purchasers likely not. For add-ons from existing purchasers, maybe there are some who are holding back because of that reason. However, likely any hold back from new purchasers and for add-ons has to do more with such things as all the uncertainty resulting from the pandemic, price increases, and possibly the new Riviera resale restrictions. Even if DVD sees fewer sales, it can easily write that off for now as more likely a problem resulting from the pandemic.

The borrowing rule should not otherwise have a negative impact on Disney in general. The DVC rooms are still getting filled or close to full before any given arrival date, and thus you still have close to the same number of people staying in DVC rooms going to parks, restaurants, stores and spending money accordingly.

makes sense. thanks for the perspective!

 

[tjkraz]

Does keeping the borrowing restrictions help or hurt Disney?
Do they make more or less or the same amount of money?

The only way I could see DVC potentially benefitting from a borrowing restriction would be if it forced some members to add points to continue their vacation patterns. But they could lose an equal amount of business from those who refuse to buy because the program is less flexible than before. Selling people on the idea that you can gather a full 3 years worth of points for a single trip is very straightforward, and perhaps a selling point to those who do not want (or don't THINK they want) annual visits to WDW. If you permanently pare it down to only using 2-2.5 years worth of points at a time, things get considerably messier.

Plus it's a PR hit with members.

Long term, I suspect the system works best if there's relative equilibrium between banked and borrowed points. It's difficult to visualize without data on member trends and a computer model. But my sense is that if *I* can bank 100% of my 300 points from 2021 to 2022 but *YOU* can only borrow half of your 300 points from 2022 to 2021, it has the potential to create problems in 2022.

I understand their reasoning for the 50% restriction.

I was responding to the poster that said that DVD has the right to take away banking or borrowing completely. Basically I meant that I didn't used think that they would take those things away because it would look really bad on them, but anymore, I don't know.

And my point is that there isn't one person making these decisions. Disney's operation in Florida is massive. The people making the decision to eliminate DME are not the same people who are deciding whether or not point borrowing restrictions are warranted for DVC members. DVC has done a pretty good job of accommodating owners throughout the past 2 years.

 

[J-Dog]

And my point is that there isn't one person making these decisions. Disney's operation in Florida is massive. The people making the decision to eliminate DME are not the same people who are deciding whether or not point borrowing restrictions are warranted for DVC members. DVC has done a pretty good job of accommodating owners throughout the past 2 years.

Yes. I was mostly trying to be tongue-in-cheek about the current Disney trend of "less quality for more money". But it's sometimes hard to convey emotion or underlying intent on the internet, so...nevermind....

 

[GoingSince1990]

Reservation availability seems to be slowly but surely starting to normalize. If I had to guess, I would say that the restrictions will probably be dropped sometime in 2023.

 

[nlenguyen]

There was no ideal solution to managing the points overage created when all resorts closed for 3 months and some even longer. Allowing extensions and short-notice cancellations was undeniably the most member-friendly approach, but it left us in a spot where there are more points in circulation than accommodations available.

Again they could have left all rules unchanged, prompting members to scramble for every accommodation available with millions of points expiring in 2021 and 2022 because there were no rooms left and points ineligible for banking. The limit on borrowing was designed to alleviate some of that.

In this particular instance, it's probably not fair to condemn "Disney" when Disney Vacation Club made a variety of member-friendly exceptions which they were not obligated to do.

Our trip we took last year was an exemption because one of my family members tested positive for COVID-19 and the even though the points expired at the end of Jan, they allowed us to book a trip in March

 

[Sandisw]

At one point, I thought we would see it dropped around the 2 year mark..which would be next month.

Now, I think we are more apt to see it in place until 2023

 

[Stargazer65]

101 days, 13 hours, 10 minutes.