How long do will BLT last?

[jenfur]

I have been thinking about DVC for years and when BLT was announced, I was sure that would be the one. I just didn't think they would be onsale until next Spring. With this years vacation, I just can't swing buying in until Spring. Do you guys think there will still be points available then since this is such a great location? I am hoping to get at least 225 points, hoping to stay mostly Sun-Thur in a 2BR, MK and then switch to a regular resort until I can add more points.

Another question, how do you determine use year, by when I purchase? I already know my big vacation will always be in December. When would be the best time for my use year to start?

For all the research, I still have sooo much to learn.

 

[Brian Noble]

Only the Magic 8-ball knows for sure...

(I'll be surprised if it sells out in only 9 months.)

 

[thelionqueen]

My guide told me that he would be surprised if BLT took more than 9 months to sell out. He and the DIS both are in agreement that it could take as little as 8 months, but no one really knows for sure.

 

[Brian Noble]

Of course, your Guide is also in the business of selling timeshares, and though Disney's variant are generally reasonable, they not immune to the typical faults of such creatures.

 

[thelionqueen]

Well considering I didn't ask the information and had already submitted my paperwork, I don't think he was using it as a selling tool

I also indicated that the information about selling out in 8 months is widely rumored (RUMORED, not fact) here on the DIS. I believe the two RUMORS are 8 months because they are thinking it will sell out quicker than BCV which I believe sold out in 10 months.

Again, not stating fact, just what I've heard and what I surmised.

 

[Brian Noble]

10 months, 18 months, who's counting?

http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=27711923&postcount=4

 

[Coach81]

How much per point are they asking for BLT?

 

[drusba]

BLT is $112 a point but $5 discount if adding on 100 or more points.

As to OP, I suspect it will still be around next spring. And will be around next fall. Even with sales at a brisk pace, it takes quite a while to sell out a resort (and none has ever sold out in less than a year). Consider AKV Jambo building (the first to be sold at AKV). It has 134 rooms and it took about 16 months to sell out and brisk sales were reported. BLT will have about 290 rooms.

As to use year, it does not affect when you can go (any time of year) or when you can call to reserve (11 months out at home resort). Nevertheless, and it is has to do with banking and the risk of cancellation, it is recommend that you have a use year that begins shortly before and no more than eight months before you usually go to WDW. If December is your time then a Dec, Oct, Sep, or Aug use year are fine and can even get June but want to avoid Feb and Mar and possibly Apr (there are no Jan, May, July, or Nov use years). For new purchasers at BLT, Disney will likely be selling a Feb use year for 09 points when sales to new purchasers start and then that generally changes from month to month. Nevertheless, you can ask for a different use year regardless of what they are selling.

 

[WI_DisneyFan]

So what happens when a resort sells out? Is the resale route your only option if you want to buy into that sold-out resort? I guess the reason I'm asking is because the Contemporary is our favorite place to stay, so this is where we'd buy in to if/when we eventually take the plunge. But since we don't like the idea of financing, it'll probably be about two years before we have the cash to pay for it. And I'm assuming by that time BLT will be completely sold out. So what are the odds that I'll be able to buy there in two years (most likely through resale)? Thanks (and sorry if I hijacked this thread...)

 

[drusba]

In two years, there is more of a probability it may be sold out. Two options to buy for sold-out resort: (a) resale market; (b) from Disney for points it has reaquired either through exercise of right of first refusal when an owner goes to sell or through foreclsures on loans to persons who have bought from Disney; those points become available from time to time and you may have to waitlist; for those sales after a sell-out, there are usually no incentives (like current $5 off per point at BLT) and you have to pay whatever price Disney has set.

 

[thelionqueen]

10 months, 18 months, who's counting?

http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=27711923&postcount=4

To requote my previous posts:
My guide told me that he would be surprised if BLT took more than 9 months to sell out. He and the DIS both are in agreement that it could take as little as 8 months, but no one really knows for sure

sell out quicker than BCV which I believe sold out in 10 months.

Didn't think I quoted fact

 

[RobDoc]

To requote my previous posts:
... <snip> but no one really knows for sure

sell out quicker than BCV which I believe sold out in 10 months.
<snip> ...

BCV began sales on February 3, 2002 and sold out about 18 months later in late July, 2003. SSR sales began on August 4, 2003.

BCV has a maximum of 282 villas and was the only resort being sold at the time. BLT will have a maximum of 428 villas and is currently being sold along with AKV - soon to be joined by SSR sales for THV and GCV .

 

[Brian Noble]

He and the DIS both are in agreement that it could take as little as 8 months, but no one really knows for sure

I was unaware that there was a DIS consensus on the sell-out date for BLT.

If you base advice on something that is factually incorrect, don't be surprised if you get called on it.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

Anybody done the math? I haven't (don't know how many rooms and points allocated per room, etc.) but I bet it's GInormous.

Anybody wanna take lines? I'll take over 12 months right now for any reasonable amount. I might even take WAY over 12 months.

 

[maburke]

Anybody done the math? I haven't (don't know how many rooms and points allocated per room, etc.) but I bet it's GInormous.

Okay, I did a back-of-the-envelope calculation, and I think there are a little over 5 million points to be sold at BLT. Minus the 100 that I'm going to buy, and that leaves about 4,999,900 for the rest of you.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

With the number of people witchin' abou the decor, it might take 10 years to sell it out!

 

[thelionqueen]

I was unaware that there was a DIS consensus on the sell-out date for BLT.

If you base advice on something that is factually incorrect, don't be surprised if you get called on it.

So if you could tell me what is "factually incorrect" about an opinion, that would be great. I did not post anything as fact. What I did, now that you mention it, is state my opinion, and even further stated everything so that it was clear it is "what I heard" and "what I read" and "what I surmised". If you would like to spend your time debating an opinion, you could probably make a career out of it; I'd rather just enjoy the DIS.

"My guide told me that he would be surprised if BLT took more than 9 months to sell out. He and the DIS both are in agreement that it could take as little as 8 months, but no one really knows for sure"

"Well considering I didn't ask the information and had already submitted my paperwork, I don't think he was using it as a selling tool. I also indicated that the information about selling out in 8 months is widely rumored (RUMORED, not fact) here on the DIS. I believe the two RUMORS are 8 months because they are thinking it will sell out quicker than BCV which I believe sold out in 10 months."
Again, not stating fact, just what I've heard and what I surmised.

"To requote my previous posts:
My guide told me that he would be surprised if BLT took more than 9 months to sell out. He and the DIS both are in agreement that it could take as little as 8 months, but no one really knows for sure
sell out quicker than BCV which I believe sold out in 10 months.
Didn't think I quoted fact"

Speaking of basing "something" on fact and being "called on it", perhaps you could point out where I gave anyone advice. I'm fairly certain its still OK to post opinions, but I could be wrong.

 

[OneMoreTry]

There will always be RESALES and those will be around until the 60's.

 

[tjkraz]

My head hurts.

 

[tjkraz]

Okay, I did a back-of-the-envelope calculation, and I think there are a little over 5 million points to be sold at BLT. Minus the 100 that I'm going to buy, and that leaves about 4,999,900 for the rest of you.

Using the Maximum Allocation point charts, I actually came up with over 6,000,000 points:

14 Grand Villas x 96 pts x 365 days = 490,560
281 Two Bedroom equivalents x 54 pts x 365 days = 5,538,510

Total: 6,029,070 points

Using the same method, I came up with about 3.02 million points at BCV

So that leaves us with:

* BLT has almost twice as many points as BCV
* BLT will sell simultaneously with at least 3 other resorts vs. zero other resorts for BCV
* BCV took 18 months to sell in its initial offering and is clearly the most in-demand location prior to BLT

Not exactly scientific, but it seems like BLT would have to sell at 8-10 times the pace of BCV just to approach sell-out in under a year.

And that doesn't even take into account other intangibles like the fact that BLT is priced higher than other resorts being offered simultaneously, the significantly higher points charts, absence of any appealing incentives (annual passes, developer's points), the fact that the resort won't even open for another year, etc.