Heading down first week of March for first time in nearly 2 years (so first trip since you could pre-book 3). On all my past trips - have been able to get nearly everything I wanted over the course of a day with the refresh method. It was rare I couldn't get something decent to pop up with 5-10 minutes of trying.
Are people who have been doing this recently having decent success if you know what you're doing?
It is not the same as G+, or even FP+.
1. IME, when you first book - at 7am before your trip, what you are first offered is prob best you will be offered. If you keep refreshing then, the times just seem to get worse. After saying yes, I was later able to bump a few times, but not much- like 5min here and there.
2. DAY of, in the parks, even when most Epcot waits were very short, there was not much available in the morning. (e.g. after using first pass).
For short wait attractions, I mostly don't bother. Just go from attraction to attraction. going around the parks with passes would have just meant extra walking.
During the day, the phantom pass times continue to be very annoying. It looks like a pass is available for 10:15am (or so) but when you try to book it, you get something very different. You can kinda just toggle back and forth between the later screens, and that sorta works to get better options....but not all that well. A few times- on a VERY slow week- I was able to get slightly better return times- like 20min better, but it is more of a pain than it was with FP+.
Compared to G+, I felt like there was a slightly better options when it came to PM passes. With G+ a lot of people booked PM passes out of the gate.
In Epcot, midday I just gave up the hassle of booking passes for 10min waits, and we did standby (except for FEA). It was easier to just do the short standby waits than bother booking the limited passes.
As with G+, often the best way to use it is simply to park hop at some point, maybe take an afternoon break. If you stay in 1 park, then your booking options get less with each pass you book. Only MK has enough attractions for a full day.
HS continues to be a mess, IMO. It just doesn't have enough attractions.