How do you think gas prices will trend?

[leahgoogle]

We are in the market for a new-to-us car (2-3 years old) and we are considering a hybrid RAV4. We are wondering how gas prices will trend in the next 5 years or so? Around my area, gas prices are still about $1.50-$1.75 more per gallon than they were before covid. We are trying to figure out if the increased of cost of a hybrid vehicle is worth it. If gas prices go down, it would be cheaper long-term for us to get a gas vehicle. If they go up, a hybrid would be financially beneficial. I know there is no way to know for sure what prices will do, but it is something to think about.

 

[dreamer17555]

Depending on what happens, and if unemployment rises like they think it might gas prices tend to trend downward when people don’t have employment… personally, I would like gas prices to hold steady if that meant our economy did.

If we default on our US debt I would predict a deeper recession, with more unemployment.

 

[sam_gordon]

We are in the market for a new-to-us car (2-3 years old) and we are considering a hybrid RAV4. We are wondering how gas prices will trend in the next 5 years or so? Around my area, gas prices are still about $1.50-$1.75 more per gallon than they were before covid. We are trying to figure out if the increased of cost of a hybrid vehicle is worth it. If gas prices go down, it would be cheaper long-term for us to get a gas vehicle. If they go up, a hybrid would be financially beneficial. I know there is no way to know for sure what prices will do, but it is something to think about.

Got a coin handy? Flip it. If it's heads, gas prices will go up. If it's tails, prices will go down. That's about as accurate as asking on a random message board IMO.

That being said, a hybrid will save you gas money regardless. The question is what's the mpg difference between hybrid and ice?

My 2020 Camry (non-hybrid) gets close to 40mpg on the highway as it is.

 

[RamblingMad]

Really depends on what OPEC+ and oil companies decide to do. Right now they’re maximizing profits. BRK has been buying up Occidental Petroleum. Buffett wouldn’t do that if he thought profits were dropping.

 

[tvguy]

Got a coin handy? Flip it. If it's heads, gas prices will go up. If it's tails, prices will go down. That's about as accurate as asking on a random message board IMO.

That being said, a hybrid will save you gas money regardless. The question is what's the mpg difference between hybrid and ice?

My 2020 Camry (non-hybrid) gets close to 40mpg on the highway as it is.

I have a 2020 Camry Hybrid LE. The LE is the entry level Camry hybrid, and has a higher EPA rating because it has a number of things different to save weight including a lighter more powerful lithium battery, smaller light tires and wheels......16 inch with steel wheels and plastic hubcaps, and there are some options you can't get like a sunroof because it adds weight.
Real world mpg is right around 50 to 53. But 4 weeks ago I took at trip from Sacramento to Fresno on Highway 99 with the cruise control set at 76 mph and I got almost 58 mpg.

 

[leahgoogle]

Got a coin handy? Flip it. If it's heads, gas prices will go up. If it's tails, prices will go down. That's about as accurate as asking on a random message board IMO.

That being said, a hybrid will save you gas money regardless. The question is what's the mpg difference between hybrid and ice?

My 2020 Camry (non-hybrid) gets close to 40mpg on the highway as it is.

My husband has a 2017 Camry (non-hybrid) and it still gets 35+ mpg! We are looking for a small SUV (we have had a highlander in the past). The gas RAV4 gets 27 mpg City/35 mpg Hwy vs the RAV4 hybrid which gets 41 mpg City/38 mpg Hwy. That's why we are debating. The hybrid obviously gets better gas mileage, but the difference isn't as great as say, a Camry.

 

[Pea-n-Me]

I think it depends who is in office. I’d probably stick with your choice of hybrid unless you want something a little spiffier.

 

[sam_gordon]

My husband has a 2017 Camry (non-hybrid) and it still gets 35+ mpg! We are looking for a small SUV (we have had a highlander in the past). The gas RAV4 gets 27 mpg City/35 mpg Hwy vs the RAV4 hybrid which gets 41 mpg City/38 mpg Hwy. That's why we are debating. The hybrid obviously gets better gas mileage, but the difference isn't as great as say, a Camry.

IMO, it comes down to what is the price difference between the Hybrid and the ICE? If I could afford the hybrid version, I'd get one.

BUT, your driving habits factor in too. If you do mainly highway driving, that's not a huge increase in mpg for the money.

 

[sam_gordon]

I think it depends who is in office. I’d probably stick with your choice of hybrid unless you want something a little spiffier.

I don't think who is in office makes a significant difference in gas prices.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Funny version: Well given how Dis economists predictions did with heating oil this winter along with the rest of their economic predictions, I think you should get all their answers......Say thank you, And do the opposite. Then come back and say you bought what they told you to.

Reality version: Well it looks to me given the fuel economy you quoted, if you do a lot of city driving with it, you're going to conserve on fuel with the hybrid. But if you do a lot of highway driving, probably not so much. Personally, I do more highway driving with whatever is my newer car and the older cars stay in the city. So for me, I think the regular gas engine one would probably be better. I think eventually we're going to go an electric for our around the city car, a gas car for longer trips. But for you, whichever meets your needs better with one caveat. I don't do cars on credit or lease. That's not the way to get ahead. But before you buy, think about it this way. If after you buy the car, whichever one it is, if the price of gasoline breaks you, it wasn't the price of gasoline. You were overextended to begin with.

But as always you do you and I hope you enjoy whatever SUV you get.

 

[Southernmiss]

Are both hybrid and non-hybrid models available in your area or by order?

When we bought in October 2022, I wanted a hybrid. But it would have been at least 9 months and no guarantees that I could get one.

So we opted for the gas vehicle that happened by chance to be on the lot and were lucky to get that one.

Our dealer is still saying in his commercials that new cars are selling as fast as he can get them in and their lot is still very empty.

 

[sam_gordon]

Are both hybrid and non-hybrid models available in your area or by order?

When we bought in October 2022, I wanted a hybrid. But it would have been at least 9 months and no guarantees that I could get one.

So we opted for the gas vehicle that happened by chance to be on the lot and were lucky to get that one.

Our dealer is still saying in his commercials that new cars are selling as fast as he can get them in and their lot is still very empty.

OP said they're looking for a vehicle that's 2-3 years old.

 

[leahgoogle]

Are both hybrid and non-hybrid models available in your area or by order?

When we bought in October 2022, I wanted a hybrid. But it would have been at least 9 months and no guarantees that I could get one.

So we opted for the gas vehicle that happened by chance to be on the lot and were lucky to get that one.

Our dealer is still saying in his commercials that new cars are selling as fast as he can get them in and their lot is still very empty.

We have both in our area. We are lucky that we don't NEED to buy one now so we can wait for a price that is acceptable to us. I did think prices would go down more than they have, but with demand the way it is, I think that will take awhile. The upside is that we have great equity in our truck and other car. We do a lot of highway driving so non-hybrid may be the way to go.

 

[kdonnel]

Don't forget to calculate in any EV tax credit a used plug-in hybrid or full EV might qualify for when doing your calculations.

https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/used-clean-vehicle-credit

For the car to qualify it must be a plug in hybrid, not just a hybrid or a full EV. Might be hard to find one with a sales price of $25000 or less though.

The credit equals 30% of the sale price up to a maximum credit of $4,000.

• Have a sale price of $25,000 or less
• Have a model year at least 2 years earlier than the calendar year when you buy it. For example, a vehicle purchased in 2023 would need a model year of 2021 or older.
• Not have already been transferred after August 16, 2022, to a qualified buyer.
• Have a gross vehicle weight rating of less than 14,000 pounds
• Be an eligible FCV or plug-in EV with a battery capacity of least 7 kilowatt hours
• Be for use primarily in the United States

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Are both hybrid and non-hybrid models available in your area or by order?

When we bought in October 2022, I wanted a hybrid. But it would have been at least 9 months and no guarantees that I could get one.

So we opted for the gas vehicle that happened by chance to be on the lot and were lucky to get that one.

Our dealer is still saying in his commercials that new cars are selling as fast as he can get them in and their lot is still very empty.

Well what is a dealer going to say in a commercial?
Hi this is CW4D motors. We haven't sold a car in a month. Please please just come on over and buy one of these hunks of junk before I have to lay off my staff.

 

[leahgoogle]

Don't forget to calculate in any EV tax credit a used plug-in hybrid or full EV might qualify for when doing your calculations.

https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/used-clean-vehicle-credit

For the car to qualify it must be a plug in hybrid, not just a hybrid or a full EV. Might be hard to find one with a sales price of $25000 or less though.

The credit equals 30% of the sale price up to a maximum credit of $4,000.

• Have a sale price of $25,000 or less
• Have a model year at least 2 years earlier than the calendar year when you buy it. For example, a vehicle purchased in 2023 would need a model year of 2021 or older.
• Not have already been transferred after August 16, 2022, to a qualified buyer.
• Have a gross vehicle weight rating of less than 14,000 pounds
• Be an eligible FCV or plug-in EV with a battery capacity of least 7 kilowatt hours
• Be for use primarily in the United States

Great info, thanks! I do agree with you on the $25,000 cap. We haven't seen what we want for under $30K. Honestly, I am not sure we are ready to get a plug-in hybrid. I will look into it though.

 

[Southernmiss]

Well what is a dealer going to say in a commercial?
Hi this is CW4D motors. We haven't sold a car in a month. Please please just come on over and buy one of these hunks of junk before I have to lay off my staff.

I get what you are saying.

But I've been to the dealer for maintenance recently and both new and used lots are empty.

And those around me needing to purchase new or used are still having difficulty as inventory of both is still very low.

Our run down 2008 van needing work with 191,000 miles sold in 5 days .

 

[RamblingMad]

OP said they're looking for a vehicle that's 2-3 years old.

Used car prices are still elevated. That would cover the period of time when less vehicles were built due to chip shortages. I can’t imagine the new version being that much more expensive after financing.

 

[sheilafri]

Great info, thanks! I do agree with you on the $25,000 cap. We haven't seen what we want for under $30K. Honestly, I am not sure we are ready to get a plug-in hybrid. I will look into it though.

I have an ‘18 Chrysler Pacifica Plug in Hybrid. I love it. We have gone for months without filling the gas tank. I know it isn’t the right car for you, but I wouldn’t be afraid of a PHEV as a general rule. So easy to just plug into a regular outlet overnight and it’s ready to run on electricity in the morning. If you’re making a long road trip, just fill up at a gas station. I think it’s the best of both worlds.

 

[sam_gordon]

Used car prices are still elevated. That would cover the period of time when less vehicles were built due to chip shortages. I can’t imagine the new version being that much more expensive after financing.

Looks like ~$5,000 difference between new & 2020 RAV4s at my local dealership. Not sure what the interest rate difference is.