How do you know what a good airfare is?

[Baklava]

We don't fly often. I mean, I think it's been 10 years. I am looking at websites and they're telling me *when* to book the best prices, but I find that I have no idea what a good price will actually be- I won't know a good price from a bad one. Is there a site that gives an estimate of what good fares will look like from Point A to Point B at X time of year?

 

[goofy4tink]

Nope. But, you could just go to various airline websites and plug in dates. Usually, fares go up at the more popular times for travel....Christmas, Thanksgiving, spring break times. And believe me...they know when people are going to want to fly, and raise fares! Many people recommend waiting until a certain point before booking....I have had little luck doing that. I know what I want to pay...so when I see a fare that is about that price, I book it.

 

[dis_guy]

We don't fly often. I mean, I think it's been 10 years. I am looking at websites and they're telling me *when* to book the best prices, but I find that I have no idea what a good price will actually be- I won't know a good price from a bad one. Is there a site that gives an estimate of what good fares will look like from Point A to Point B at X time of year?

Try this:

http://matrix.itasoftware.com

Where it says date select fare calendar.

As pp's have said there is no magic answer to your question. What I suggest is begin stalking the airline sites as far in advance as possible to get a feel for fares and what they do. In particular watch fare prices immediately after the airline releases them and for a few weeks after. Did they go down? Up? Watch them for a few months before your date are even available if possible. I know it sounds obsessive but you'll be much more likely to pick up on patterns.

We have found United usually has the best prices and routes for our WDW trips. Typically the fare are very high on release but then drop to the lowest price we'll see and that's when I buy them. This could be a week or a few weeks. Last time I ended up going for a slightly higher fare than I wanted and sure enough it went down. However at that time I grabbed a very reasonable upgrade to first class that made up for it.

 

[ParrotBill]

Waiting for fares to go down is old thinking.... when airlines had capacity and needed to lower rates to fill it. These days rates rarely go down. They just go up and the flights fill up. You can see a recent history of fares on Kayak.com but that shows mostly seasonality of pricing, as of the days bought, not necessarily any trend and it does not indicates how a particular day's fare has trended.

 

[smiths02]

Some of those sites don't include Southwest. For us, they have a wanna get away rate that comes out cheapest.
Also, on those sites Spirit Air comes out cheapest, but they have TON of negative reviews about add on fees (I would take into account baggage fees when comparing prices)

 

[ParrotBill]

Good point to add your own view of fees for baggage, seat assignments, etc. And there are several airlines that don't participate in agency sites. Southwest rates always start at their lowest possible - and those rates simply disappear as they sell out leaving the higher priced fares closer to the date.

 

[mickeynut1]

Southwest rates always start at their lowest possible - and those rates simply disappear as they sell out leaving the higher priced fares closer to the date.

I think it depends on where you are flying out of as this has not been our experience with SWA. We fly out of Chicago and in our experience, the fares start out moderate to high and then drop as time goes on. They do eventually go back up again as it gets closer to departure, but I have never bought airfare as soon as rates were released and have always gotten flights cheaper than what was first advertised (and have sometimes gotten a SW credit after booking due to our flights dropping even more).

 

[pooch]

I think "always" is a dangerous word. I have been flying SWA almost exclusively since 2006 from CT to Florida and have rarely found the best price on release day. There are so many factors to consider. To the OP, look, look a lot, look several times a day, and book when you see a time/fare you can live with.

 

[nkereina]

A good price to me is one that sounds reasonable. If I see a fare I'm willing to pay and doesn't sound crazy, and it's within the range I was expecting, I'll go with it. I don't stress over waiting to find the lowest fare.

 

[SandyinMonterey]

I struggle with this every time we need to fly. I try to start searching as soon as I know my dates, and sometimes that's a year out. We usually fly United because of limited availability at our airport. I've found that they're the highest when looking a year out. I'm now at 8 months out and they have dropped little. I agree with previous poster, airlines has decreased their number of flights and know the seats will be filled. At our local airport, two airlines have stopped traveling three routes. When I was back East a couple of months ago, learned that United will no longer be flying out of LaGuardia and JFK (for the SFO flight I believe) so all those New Yorkers now have to go to Newark. What I try to do is pull the trigger when I'm best comfortable with the price. Once I waited too long and not only did prices keep climbing, the timing and number of stops changed dramatically. I vowed never to go thru that again. Good Luck.

 

[karly05]

If you know what airline(s) you're probably flying, start looking now at their websites. I've always read here that with SW, people like to book as soon as dates are released for best prices. I have usually flown American, and I can tell you that American's prices go up and down and up and down and up and down... I usually book about 2.5 - 3 months before the trip; for whatever it's worth, I read a Fodor's article last year that recommended buying (I'm assuming they were looking at legacy airlines) between 100 and 50 days ahead of time.

For next year, I'm looking seriously at Delta (not going om my rant again about American Eagle). I've been looking at the rates for my dates next April, and they are moving back and forth a little. What I did was look at rates for the period within the 90-60 day mark from now, and I'm seeing some prices I'd be happy with. I feel like I've got a pretty good idea of what to hope for/watch for. Patience pays off. For 2015, I watched American like a hawk. I was about ready to settle for "good enough," then one day they dropped the fare for the flights I wanted and I jumped on it. Ended up paying less for my 2015 flights than I had in 2014.

It's frustrating and it takes a lot of patience, but I'd just keep watching.

 

[jec6613]

A good fare depends on how price sensitive you are, and a variety of other factors, but I've found one reliable indicator for more than 8 weeks out and have a nearby-ish Amtrak station: if the fare you're looking at is lower than a round trip on Amtrak's cheapest coach seats for the same dates, you're doing OK.

Amtrak's pricing structure is different than an airline's, which is why this works (it's a long story ...).

 

[Baklava]

A good fare depends on how price sensitive you are, and a variety of other factors, but I've found one reliable indicator for more than 8 weeks out and have a nearby-ish Amtrak station: if the fare you're looking at is lower than a round trip on Amtrak's cheapest coach seats for the same dates, you're doing OK.

Amtrak's pricing structure is different than an airline's, which is why this works (it's a long story ...).

Amtrak's is $1102 (and takes 4 days, but I assume we're not *actually* talking about taking it as an option, just a price indicator.) The flight would come to $1464.

Thank you, everyone. I've used Matrix and I think $350ish a person is probably the best we're going to do from California. (January, off season, 3 adults and a child) I *can* get it down to $319 a person, but that requires leaving the resort at 3 am instead of 6 am and I think the $30-$40 a piece is worth it with a cranky teen and an autistic 5 year old. 3 am seems like a *bad* idea.

I appreciate all the help!

 

[jec6613]

Yeah, just Amtrak as a price indicator. Their fares sell out in sequential buckets, which is why they're such a good demand and pricing indicator.

 

[Baklava]

Some of those sites don't include Southwest. For us, they have a wanna get away rate that comes out cheapest.
Also, on those sites Spirit Air comes out cheapest, but they have TON of negative reviews about add on fees (I would take into account baggage fees when comparing prices)

And I forgot bag fees. SW is as cheap or cheaper once I factor in bag fees.

 

[sharona]

With the notable exceptions of school breaks and holiday travel, I've found that I end up finding prices that I can live with around 90-120 days out. Of course there are exceptions and YMMV. I do think it's true that fares tend to drop on Tuesdays and Wednesdays - not meaning to travel on those days but to BUY on those days. Unless it's an unbelievable deal, I won't buy a non-refundable ticket on a weekend.

For SW and JB, they release their calendars later than the others and their prices seem to start at the current market rate of the legacy airlines then drop or rise from there. I've been using SW a lot lately and love that I can get a credit to be used later if prices fall. I've saved quite a bit of money using this option and I like that I can buy the ticket as soon as I see something reasonable but not feel like I've been had if prices drop the next week. And yes, as several have already advised - when comparing prices be sure to include baggage fees. I usually buy the early bird check in option on SW so I have to add that into the fare when making my decisions.

 

[Baklava]

I booked the flight home. I'm not going to do better than $196 per person with two bags included.

I'm waffling on whether I book the flight out at $296 per person or if I gamble on something better coming out with their next round of tickets in August. I'm really torn.

 

[SnipsNSnails]

Know what carriers fly from your airport to Orlando. If you go to your airport website it will list the airlines that fly from your airport. Discount carriers like Southwest, Spirit, and Allegiant don't show up on travel sites so you will want to visit the sites and price your dates. Then I usually use a travel site to compare the main carriers prices as well. Once you get an idea of what carrier is going to be the best deal for you for your date or in general if your dates aren't out yet (take into account things like no baggage fees on Southwest and that Allegiant only flies on certain days) then you can watch the fares. I just booked ours for Feb today. Southwest is generally the best deal for us. In this instance I am saving $320 total by flying into Tampa rather than Orlando and then we are flying out of Orlando on the way back because it was cheaper than Tampa. For us it's worth it because my parents winter in FL and will pick us up the day before we check-in and take us the day after we check out. Tampa is about 20-25 min. further from their house than MCO so totally worth it to save $320! But even if that wasn't the case and we had to rent a car or do something else, I'm sure we would have still saved enough to fly into Tampa. I had been really annoyed at the flight going down being $50 pp more expensive than the return flight and then found the Tampa fare which was $80 pp cheaper than the flight going down to MCO. Sanford is nearby as well, that's where Allegiant flies into and we've done that before as well.

 

[Baklava]

Know what carriers fly from your airport to Orlando. If you go to your airport website it will list the airlines that fly from your airport. Discount carriers like Southwest, Spirit, and Allegiant don't show up on travel sites so you will want to visit the sites and price your dates. Then I usually use a travel site to compare the main carriers prices as well. Once you get an idea of what carrier is going to be the best deal for you for your date or in general if your dates aren't out yet (take into account things like no baggage fees on Southwest and that Allegiant only flies on certain days) then you can watch the fares. I just booked ours for Feb today. Southwest is generally the best deal for us. In this instance I am saving $320 total by flying into Tampa rather than Orlando and then we are flying out of Orlando on the way back because it was cheaper than Tampa. For us it's worth it because my parents winter in FL and will pick us up the day before we check-in and take us the day after we check out. Tampa is about 20-25 min. further from their house than MCO so totally worth it to save $320! But even if that wasn't the case and we had to rent a car or do something else, I'm sure we would have still saved enough to fly into Tampa. I had been really annoyed at the flight going down being $50 pp more expensive than the return flight and then found the Tampa fare which was $80 pp cheaper than the flight going down to MCO. Sanford is nearby as well, that's where Allegiant flies into and we've done that before as well.

Gotcha. Allegiant and Spirit are out, Tampa doesn't have times that work well (and is a small savings anyway), so it looks like Southwest it is, but those are handy tips for future trips.

 

[broncobill]

It's always a gamble. When I was looking for our flights from grand Rapids Michigan to Orlando, I would check daily.
They did go up and down a bit. But when I seen I could get four round trip tickets for $1200, I jumped on it. Granted, Delta charges $25 per checked bag, but still cheaper than any one else.
Now, 1 ticket for our dates is $581.