Wow-- this thread is fascinating and very helpful. We have been thinking about DVC as well, and as much as I *want* to love it, I am having trouble convincing myself.Our situation is rather odd: my inlaws, who are in a good place financially, know we enjoy Disney, and would like to do something nice for us, have offered to buy into DVC for us as a gift; we'd pick up the annual dues. (We are me, DW, and DD9.)
Even so, here is why I am hesitant:
1) We would not go to WDW every year. Maybe every other at most. Maybe every 3. Playing with a spreadsheet I found here, I am having a hard time seeing how it would be a better deal with DVC (even just considering the dues) than paying cash unless you go every year.
2) There are other places we'd like to go, plus we love cruises. While I understand that DVC can be used for other places and DCL (at least buying direct), the points needed seem outrageously expensive and not a good use of DVC.
3) We've stayed at moderates our past couple trips and been more than happy. Plus we've gone during free dining. We would LOVE to stay at a deluxe but have been unwilling to spend $300+ a night.
4) We don't necessarily care about having a kitchen as cooking for us is not vacation. And DW especially hates the idea of not having daily mousekeeping, which would mean we'd probably shell out extra to buy it.
5) We are deal hunters! And why not with free dining, room discounts, etc. etc. Sure, they may not always be around, but if Disney stopped offering them, we'd either go less or just go somewhere else.
So are we crazy to consider turning down their offer? Am I not thinking this through right?
I think you're on the right track with your thinking.
Another assumption people make (or not make) when doing DVC cost analysis is usually hotel price increases (inflation). Since we don't know what the future will hold all we (DVC owners) do basically is just locking in today's price for tomorrow's vacation.
We don't know if next year's hotel price will go up 10% or 3%, and we don't know if Disney will continue with the promos (free dining, kids stay free, etc.). But we know that whatever they do, we'll get our room for roughly the same price plus our annual dues.
And if the numbers you crunch end up not matching your vacation habit, that's ok too.
DVC doesn't always work for everyone. Although if it was me getting free DVC from someone, I'd definitely accept it. Even if I only get small points hehe... But then again our vacation habit is much different than yours. So you're thinking it about it the right way.