How come DCL isn't selling out?

[mcd2745]

It's been several years since we have sailed RCCL. However, one thing I felt they did a really good job with was spreading people out. We sailed on on Freedom and Oasis of the Seas when they were each at the time we sailed, the largest ship in the world. Never felt crowded. It is something that I do believe DCL struggles with a little bit when it comes to things like sail away , pirate night, some of the things they do in the atriums, etc. They tend to have everyone in the same place at the same time.

 

[Cfabar1]

I wonder if they are setting the stage to offer a less flexible booking with cancellation and room selection which will cost less money…

 

[otten]

Our last two cruises (in the past year) did sell out and one of them was an itinerary that I for sure did not expect to sell out (Pacific Coast out of Vancouver in March, all sea days, no ports) and our next one is almost sold out too so I don't think the blanket statement that DCL isn't selling out is accurate. And it isn't like they sold out every sailing before either. Our first cruise was a last minute GT rate in 2015 out of PC that was not a sell out.

That being said I think the travel market is cooling from the revenge travel peak of 2022-2023. Cost of living increases are hitting more and more people and discretionary spending is dropping. Disney, across all their properties including DCL, have had large price increases. Those increases might not deter one time visitors but with each increase more would be return travellers will ask themselves whether or not it's worth the money.

 

[DisneyAuntie12]

It must be a conscious choice for Disney not to innovate. The other family oriented cruiselines go for more and more exciting things to do on board, go carts, rock climbing and what all, while Disney sticks to what they know.

And for new guests, that might be enough. For frequent cruisers and their fanbase, it might not.

I think they do have some incredible innovations, it’s just that they’re all in the Kid’s Club, so people forget they’re even there. Maybe the idea was that kids would be so enamored they’d want to stay there all day, while parents could explore the restaurants and lounges? I think the thing is that kids being kids, they can get bored with the most elaborate new things really fast and then want to spend all day doing the most basic things, like playing at the pool or just running off energy somewhere.

 

[Dug720]

It's been several years since we have sailed RCCL. However, one thing I felt they did a really good job with was spreading people out. We sailed on on Freedom and Oasis of the Seas when they were each at the time we sailed, the largest ship in the world. Never felt crowded. It is something that I do believe DCL struggles with a little bit when it comes to things like sail away , pirate night, some of the things they do in the atriums, etc. They tend to have everyone in the same place at the same time.

They've lost some of that - at least for ships that sail in and out of cold weather. I was on a totally sold out Anthem of the Seas out of NYC over Presidents' Week, and you absolutely felt the sold-out-ness and lack of places to spread people on the first and last day and a half. Cold weather had EVERYONE indoors, and there are only so many places to go.

 

[clarker99]

Port Canaveral just dropped its May data...

Wish
May '23 85.4% occupancy rate
May '24 93.4%
Last 12 months average 94.6%

Fantasy
May '23 87.6%
May '24 85.7%
Last 12 months average 90%

Overall Port Canaveral DCL Cruises
May '23 86%
May '24 91%
Last 12 months average 93%

For the 2 main DCL ships out of Canveral (Fantasy/Dream pre Covid and Wish/Fantasy post covid), the last 12months have had more passengers board than any 12 month span going back to 2016.

 

[meremac]

Credit card debt is at all time high. As long as there is credit available people will continue to travel. We are a debt based economy.

Of course. Travel isn't ending. It's just slowing down compared to last year.

 

[clarker99]

And yet....

Record-setting travel predicted in Florida for Fourth of July, AAA says​

Orlando one of top Independence Day destinations​

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...icted-in-florida-for-fourth-of-july-aaa-says/

Florida reported a record Jan-March.
https://www.visitflorida.org/about-us/media/news-releases/article-details/?releaseId=21166

The trends for Florida bound travellers have not turned downward yet. They remain (much) higher than 2019.

 

[RivShore]

The trends for Florida bound travellers have not turned downward yet. They remain (much) higher than 2019.

That is incredible that it is still moving up even after the assumed end of revenge travel.

 

[RivShore]

Of course. Travel isn't ending. It's just slowing down compared to last year.

But yet we keep seeing data that says it is not slowing. How do you reconcile that?

 

[babyruth]

The cruise I was just on in April had the little sign at guest services that the sailing was sold out and upgrades were not available. I have been painstakingly going over the latest release trying to find what we will book with our placeholder. First off, we travel on school vacations. We know the cost is more. However, DCL hasn't changed their itineraries for the Northeast vacation weeks...ever? The week we have off in February or April without fail is Eastern Caribbean. I'd book ASAP if I could finally get a Western on our vaca week. I desperately want to sail the Wish, but not for 3 or 4 days! We aren't short cruise people. We tried the short cruise on Dream in 2020 and it just was way too short. One bad weather day ruined the whole trip, basically. We ventured out to Carnival for a NYE cruise this year and I must say...for the price....yes DCL has better entertainment but if I want ports I won't hesitate to branch out again. The only thing that bothered me on Carnival was the smoke (lots of it) and lack of soda access (have to go to a bar to get served). DCL prices are going bananas IMO. In 2019 we booked 3 cabins - 7 people - on the Magic for a 5 night Mediterranean for 14k. Now I can get one cabin for 3 people on the Treasure for 8-10k? no thanks! We are doing a week in Italy on Marriot points instead next April and a week at VRB for NYE this year. I am not even sure I'm going to choose something for the placeholder. I may just get it refunded and if we can someday use one of the last minute DCL deals that's great. If not, RCC sails from ports that I don't even have to fly to!

 

[peder]

But yet we keep seeing data that says it is not slowing. How do you reconcile that?

It's probably a matter of looking at different time periods. Any cruises sailing in May would have been selling for the prior 18 months which included some periods of very high booking demand, but looking ahead at Treasure sailings we see evidence that bookings are a bit slower because the inaugural sailings were slow to sell out/some have still not sold out, and that might suggest that demand is softening a bit going forward?

Either way, DCL probably views > 90% occupancy as a sign they need to keep raising prices, and once they raise prices, we'd expect demand to fall off slightly. So even if we compare two time periods, it's still comparing apples and oranges, because pricing changes come through at irregular intervals.

 

[MomOTwins]

It's probably a matter of looking at different time periods. Any cruises sailing in May would have been selling for the prior 18 months which included some periods of very high booking demand, but looking ahead at Treasure sailings we see evidence that bookings are a bit slower because the inaugural sailings were slow to sell out/some have still not sold out, and that might suggest that demand is softening a bit going forward?

Either way, DCL probably views > 90% occupancy as a sign they need to keep raising prices, and once they raise prices, we'd expect demand to fall off slightly. So even if we compare two time periods, it's still comparing apples and oranges, because pricing changes come through at irregular intervals.

We sail on the treasure in march and I was looking to change rooms and saw nothing is available—the inaugural season is mostly slow months outside of spring break, and spring break sales seem to be doing fine.

 

[DCLMP]

But yet we keep seeing data that says it is not slowing. How do you reconcile that?

I feel like people are grasping at straws.

 

[Kingkonig]

Is it that the rate of increase is slowing, but that travel is still increasing? (See: inflation coming down to 3.3% instead of 4.5%)

 

[RivShore]

I feel like people are grasping at straws.

Agreed!

 

[momof2n2]

But yet we keep seeing data that says it is not slowing. How do you reconcile that?

something sailing full doesn't take into account that some bookings could be coming in later after *GT, right?

 

[Cfabar1]

something sailing full doesn't take into account that some bookings could be coming in later after *GT, right?

Nope, and I wonder if some of this is DCL's strategy... Would be fun to be a fly in the wall of the boardroom!

Also am curious what DCL's plan is after these 4 new ships come online... it doubles the fleet!

 

[DCLMP]

!

Agreed!

I would never use DCL as an economic barometer. It's a niche that few can afford and fewer that even choose it as a vacation to start with.

 

[DCLMP]

something sailing full doesn't take into account that some bookings could be coming in later after *GT, right?

Cruiselines

something sailing full doesn't take into account that some bookings could be coming in later after *GT, right?

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Our last two cruises (in the past year) did sell out and one of them was an itinerary that I for sure did not expect to sell out (Pacific Coast out of Vancouver in March, all sea days, no ports) and our next one is almost sold out too so I don't think the blanket statement that DCL isn't selling out is accurate. And it isn't like they sold out every sailing before either. Our first cruise was a last minute GT rate in 2015 out of PC that was not a sell out.

That being said I think the travel market is cooling from the revenge travel peak of 2022-2023. Cost of living increases are hitting more and more people and discretionary spending is dropping. Disney, across all their properties including DCL, have had large price increases. Those increases might not deter one time visitors but with each increase more would be return travellers will ask themselves whether or not it's worth the money.

We were on the cruise after your cruise from Vancouver. We were late boarding because of all the Canadians that had to go through immigration. It also wasn’t an expensive cruise to begin with and it was discounted. Our cruise was during Spring break and was sold out. Honestly it wasn’t a super expensive cruise either. I booked it in January with an OBB. I think I paid around 1800 for an inside room for me and my son on a 4 day cruise
The reasonable priced cruises seem to sell without discounting. If you think a cruise is way over priced you are probably not alone. That’s the time to wait.