How close is SSR to sell out?

[canwegosoon]

Anyone know where they are up to? TIA Terri

 

[tomandrobin]

I don't know at all, but from what I have read here and other forums, it will be at the earliest 2008. And if they announce an additional DVC resort it could be 2009.

 

[disneymagic316]

When we were there in April our guide told us they were 70% sold out.

 

[Dean]

When we were there in April our guide told us they were 70% sold out.

I think that's 70% of currently available points, not of the total end resort.

 

[tomandrobin]

That is probably true. I think there are 8 buildings not finished construction and I don't think they are selling them yet. So, if 70% is the percentage of unsold of current available points, that would mean they are about 50% for the overall end product.

 

[RobDoc]

There are six buildings currently under construction and scheduled to open in 2007. Twelve buildings are presently completed and being used for occupancy. I doubt that all 12 have been declared into DVC inventory. Using the 70% guestimate- that could mean that 8 buildings are now sold out and maybe another two are included in the sales inventory. That would leave 2 buildings still under control (for cash rental) of the developer.

DVC has typically not released any "official" sales information so all of this is subject to speculation. If the above speculation is close- it would indicate that the completed resort is under 50% sold in just about 3 years time and would suggest a sell out sometime in fall 2009.

Stay tuned!

 

[keishashadow]

Pure speculation but,

*every guide I talke to on June trip projected a sell-out early next year

*of course, none of them would confirm or deny CRV rumour

*several hinted @ an important announcement this late this year (or as DH predicts - the maintenance fees will increase )

 

[dianeschlicht]

Heck, the announcement is probably that we are getting on line booking!! THey have made that announcement annually now for at least 4-5 years! We're still waiting!

 

[keishashadow]

Heck, the announcement is probably that we are getting on line booking!! THey have made that announcement annually now for at least 4-5 years! We're still waiting!

That's ok...anticipation's half the fun.

 

[tomandrobin]

There are six buildings currently under construction and scheduled to open in 2007. Twelve buildings are presently completed and being used for occupancy.

That's what I get for trying to go by memory first thing in the morning. I was thinking there were three in the Carousel section left to complete and five in the "last" section. But i pulled up the SSR map map and there they are....six!

 

[dianeschlicht]

The original projection when SSR was started was that it would take 5-7 years to sell out. I think they are probably still on that time schedule. I suspect it will be closer to 2-3 years left for SSR sales.

 

[cdpa4d]

There was a report on mouseplanet.com back in May that said how many Units remain to be sold at SSR. That number even included the units currently being built.

I calculated the units remaining to the total units of the resort. I came to the conclusion that SSR was about 72% sold out.

There are approximately 552 units at SSR. Shares of 160 units remained in May.

160 / 552 = 28%
28% - 100% = 72%

In May SSR was 72% sold out.

Here is the information from mouseplanet.com. Keep in mind some of the 160 units remaining may not even be at SSR. They could be repos at other DVC resorts.

Also, the Disney Vacation Club continues to grow, as Disney announced that it had sold out its 2,000th unit. The units are owned by nearly 90,000 Vacation Club members. There are shares of approximately 160 units left for sale.

 

[Dean]

The original projection when SSR was started was that it would take 5-7 years to sell out. I think they are probably still on that time schedule. I suspect it will be closer to 2-3 years left for SSR sales.

I don't think DVD has ever published sales projection. The info that has come out has been unofficial and from questionable sources at times (the guides).

 

[canwegosoon]

I don't think DVD has ever published sales projection. The info that has come out has been unofficial and from questionable sources at times (the guides).

I remember what Diane posted was what we were told from a guide 2 years ago...But yes Dean I don't believe that there was anything official.

It is just so intresting how fast SSR seems to have sold approx 50-72% of it's inventory(to me at least). I think it is gone really fast-espically when you consider how the price has gone up.

 

[RobDoc]

There was a report on mouseplanet.com back in May that said how many Units remain to be sold at SSR. That number even included the units currently being built.

I calculated the units remaining to the total units of the resort. I came to the conclusion that SSR was about 72% sold out.

There are approximately 552 units at SSR. Shares of 160 units remained in May.

160 / 552 = 28%
28% - 100% = 72%

In May SSR was 72% sold out.

552 does NOT include the buildings under construction. Actually, the 12 completed (and occupied) buildings total 552 - the six buildings still under construction will add another 276 villas for a total of 828.

As noted in some of the other posts above, the 72% is likely what has been sold of the units declared into DVC inventory- but not all twelve may even be in that inventory yet. Even if you use 552 as the basis for the 72% that means that a max of 398 units have been sold of the 552 and that number currently comprises 48% of the total (828) that the resort will eventually become - sometime in 2007.

 

[dvc_john]

I did some research on this topic earlier this year (using the Orange County records system). I (and several other posters) came to the conclusion that approx 75% of existing buildings had been sold at that time. (Or 50% of total buildings).
It is also interesting to note, that while the first 4 buildings built (Congress Park) were sold in the sequence they were opened, the remaining 8 original buildings are being sold on a scattered basis. At the time of my research, 7 of the last 8 buildings opened were at least partially sold.

 

[Dean]

I remember what Diane posted was what we were told from a guide 2 years ago...But yes Dean I don't believe that there was anything official.

It is just so intresting how fast SSR seems to have sold approx 50-72% of it's inventory(to me at least). I think it is gone really fast-espically when you consider how the price has gone up.

Interesting how people's take on this varies so much. My info suggests that sales are behind projections by a fair amount, even with all the specials and being the only resort selling.

 

[canwegosoon]

Interesting how people's take on this varies so much. My info suggests that sales are behind projections by a fair amount, even with all the specials and being the only resort selling.

Dean that is intresting ...I just figured it would take at leat 7 years to sell out SSR since it is so big(I always figures 5yrs was their best guess)...and I never thought that prices of points would go up so much so quick...but then again I am rather new to all of this(2years).
It just really makes you think what will the future be like...I don't want to get my hopes up for another resort announcement in October(I have bad flashbacks from last year's billboard announcement )..but I guess to me it is intresting too.
-Do you have an estimate of what you think DVC will hold for Disney inventory? Or perhaps a % of earlier resorts.

 

[Dean]

Dean that is intresting ...I just figured it would take at leat 7 years to sell out SSR since it is so big(I always figures 5yrs was their best guess)...and I never thought that prices of points would go up so much so quick...but then again I am rather new to all of this(2years).
It just really makes you think what will the future be like...I don't want to get my hopes up for another resort announcement in October(I have bad flashbacks from last year's billboard announcement )..but I guess to me it is intresting too.
-Do you have an estimate of what you think DVC will hold for Disney inventory? Or perhaps a % of earlier resorts.

To my knowledge, DVC has never formally released sales projections or sales data. Nor have they stated how much they plan to keep or now own. Common info received by many over time from unofficial sources suggest they have kept between 2-4%. I doubt this is enough to do much, if any, renting as they musts have about 2-4% to do maintenance and the like and to handle those orphaned days here and there that end up not being reserved. I believe essentially all cash rentals comes from other sources.

My sales projections were 9-12 years. Remember that we had VB, HH, BCV and VWL all overlapping in sales. It took over 18 months for VWL to sell out, around 12-13 months for BCV and forever for the other 2 even with a $15 pp discount. Since SSR is selling with no internal competition, all the specials they have run and DVC has been more aggressive with ROFR, it should have taken somewhere around 4-5 years to completely sell out SSR. If they announce another resort even next year, such as CR, it could be planned, built and sold out before SSR.

 

[a Really Bad Egg]

...last week and in that conversation he indicated construction would be done by next summer and they expected to sell out by this time next year.

It appears that the demand for add on points is high from current members - partly because the wait list for the more popular sold out DVC resorts is long that they are buying up the SSR points.

The guide also said that if those projections are on target, DVC will be announcing something very soon.

That may have been his own personal speculation, but is interesting. My opinion was that he was reiterating company expectations.

I also felt this wasn't part of a sales pitch - it was an off the record chat. However, sales people are always talking the talk....so take this for what you think it's worth.