How accurate is Accuweather?

[disneyhousewife]

My trip starts in two weeks and Accuweather says it will thunderstorm for the duration of the trip I can't find any other information on the weather that far in advance. For those of you that have used this website: were the predictions accurate?

 

[mesaboy2]

Two weeks ahead from anyone is garbage. Ignore it, check back 2-3 days in advance.

 

[Luvchefmic]

Two weeks ahead from anyone is garbage. Ignore it, check back 2-3 days in advance.

within the 2 to 3 day window though I would say accuweather website has been right on the money for me Work in one town 30 miles away the weather isn't always the same as where I live and I consult it all the time Totally agree about so far in advance ridiculous that anyone even tries to predict

 

[disneyhousewife]

Thanks guys! That makes me feel better

 

[OKW Lover]

Just to add to what the PP's have said, Accuweather is no more accurate (or inaccurate) than any other weather site, including the Orlando local TV stations. Use their long-range forecasts only as a guide for the conditions you may encounter during your visit.

 

[Disfan1968]

Forecasts past seven days reflect global trends and are essentially educated guesses. That being said, they have gotten better at this. But yes, a forecast for "isolated thunderstorms" nine days from now could drastically change.

Generally...

48 hours they have a solid idea of what weather will likely look like.
3-5 days they have a pretty good idea.
6-7 Days they are starting to guess a bit.
8+ They are relying on data that's pretty far out and based on general jetstream trends and how fronts are likely to ride and interact with it.

 

[wisblue]

My weather forecast for WDW for every day from May 15 to September 15 is "partly cloudy, hot and humid with a high of 92 and a low of 72 and a 50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms."

How far off can that be?

 

[leeg229]

I don't care if Mother Nature herself is making the forecast, anything more than 3 or 4 days out is an educated guess at best. Even if your forecast does say thunderstorms/showers every day remember, Florida weather is highly localized. It could be stormy at Epcot yet bright and sunny at Studios. I'd still bring rain gear though for those pop up showers that tend to happen this time of year.

 

[disneyhousewife]

I'm just going to have to pray to the weather gods I guess.

 

[Good Morning Dewdrop]

I don't care if Mother Nature herself is making the forecast, anything more than 3 or 4 days out is an educated guess at best. Even if your forecast does say thunderstorms/showers every day remember, Florida weather is highly localized. It could be stormy at Epcot yet bright and sunny at Studios. I'd still bring rain gear though for those pop up showers that tend to happen this time of year.

I predict it will be hot

Also I agree with this poster - we had one trip - we were in DHS and it bucketed rain in a quick but hard rainstorm - everyone running for cover. We went to POFQ for lunch (we like the po'boys and beignets) and it hadn't rained there at all! Kind of blew our minds!

We'll be down in 10 days (not that we're counting or anything ) and like Mesaboy said I won't even bother to check the weather more than 3 days out. I'll pack for hot weather, ponchos are always in the car so we're set there.

 

[ArwenMarie]

A helpful app in terms of rain is Dark Sky. It's not a long-term forecasting app, but it's helpful when you are actually in the parks. It uses your location and shows you where the storms are, when they are coming, what's going to happen over the next hour. That way you can see what's coming (and make a dash to get inside somewhere if needed).

 

[TeachTink]

My husband works at Accuweather. . You can't trust a forecast that far in advance. Don't stress out. If you check it the day before you go, you will get a more accurate idea of what the next few days should look like.

 

[Lynne M]

Just because you see thunderstorms in the forecast doesn't mean it's going to be raining with thunder and lightning all day long. It just means that there's a chance that there will be a thunderstorm at some point during the day, somewhere in the forecast area.

Which is sort of the default forecast for Orlando from now till October. Hot, humid, thunderstorm.

 

[shelemm]

Every website gets the weather wrong, even on the spot- says no chance of rain when it is actaully raining outside. Interesting to look at for a general idea, but take it all with a grain of salt.

 

[backfire103]

I go in May almost every year. It will thunderstorm at a few points during your trip. But it never lasts long. Just pack and prepare or try an hold out on meals till it rains. It doesn't hamper the fun.

 

[disneyhousewife]

A helpful app in terms of rain is Dark Sky. It's not a long-term forecasting app, but it's helpful when you are actually in the parks. It uses your location and shows you where the storms are, when they are coming, what's going to happen over the next hour. That way you can see what's coming (and make a dash to get inside somewhere if needed).

Interesting, I'll look into that! It sounds very useful.

 

[disneyhousewife]

I go in May almost every year. It will thunderstorm at a few points during your trip. But it never lasts long. Just pack and prepare or try an hold out on meals till it rains. It doesn't hamper the fun.

This is my first time going in May! I read somewhere that it rains less in May, but who knows...it's the internet.

 

[Silvermist999]

My trip starts in two weeks and Accuweather says it will thunderstorm for the duration of the trip I can't find any other information on the weather that far in advance. For those of you that have used this website: were the predictions accurate?

Great thread! We will be there in at the same time....seeing the thunderstorms for the entire time we will be there is alarming....fingers crossed, it isn't accurate:

 

[Yellowstonetim]

Pay attention to the percentage given for whatever weather is predicted, such as showers 20% or afternoon thunderstorms 90%. That literally means that showers happened on 20 out of 100 days with the same weather conditions, or thunderstorms happened 90 days out of 100 with the same weather conditions. These will help you judge how reliable the prediction.

The type of weather and length also affect reliability. If solid rain is predicted for 5 days straight at 90%, it's gonna rain.

Start watching the extended forecast now, but it will change. The weather patterns will move and change. For example: If, 10 days out, it shows sun Monday and Tuesday, rain Wednesday, sun Thursday and Friday, the rain prediction may move from Wednesday to Tuesday or Thursday.

Weather forecasts a week out are useful, but not final, so keep watch up to the very day. I check weather in the morning for the day.

The only 100% certain forecast is for yesterday's weather.