How accurate are the 10 Day Weather Forecasts?

[Mich Mouse]

I have looked at the extended weather forecast on two different sites (Accu-Weather and Intellecast) and both are indicating rain during our trip.

What is your experience with the ten day forecasts? Are they mostly accurate?

Hoping for weather...But if not, I'll still be at Disney!

 

[SammieG]

no! The weather reports are NEVER that accurate that I can see..

we laugh about the weather in Orlando as if we watch the tv in the morning and dont like the forecast, we change the channel until we find one that we do like the forecast for!!

One thing you can be guaranteed of in Orlando, is some of the following, Sun, Rain, Clouds..
Depending on what day and what time of year.. you get sun rain and clouds in different amounts.

I know thats not helpful! I always still read the 10 day forecasts but I have learned not to get depressed by them if they say rain..

 

[GOOFYFREEK]

Nothing is accurate here in FL. They can track the fronts that come across the states but the onest that come up through the gulf they cant. Until they show up on land. So a front could be coming across the states and a front out of the gulf move it up. I would wait for the 3 day outlook or possibly the 5 day.

Here is orlando station I watch before going www.wesh.com

 

[rflorek]

10-day weather forecasts (actually any weather forecast) are based upon many differnet computer models. Meteorologists usually have specific models that they favor (which is why you may get very different forecasts at times for the same area). In general, everything has to fall exactly into place for the forecast to be accurate. For this reason, forecasts can be modified each day depending on the changes to these computer models.

I would go with the 10 days forecast as a bit of a guide, but I'd put more stock into a 3 day (or less) forecast because the elements within the models are usually easier to predict as the date gets closer.

Enjoy your trip!
Robyn

 

[safetymom]

www.wftv.com is a local pretty accurate weather station.

 

[Lawshark]

Considering that forecasters often have trouble getting TOMORROW's forecast correct...the 10 day forecast is an exercise in wishful thinking!

However...you MUST believe that they can accurately predict what our weather will look like 100 YEARS from now....since global warming is set in concrete!

 

[Brian Noble]

We did the 10-day-out-watch thing for our Disneyland trip last year. It did rain some, but never on the days that the long-range forecast predicted.

My advice is to use any forecast more than a few days out for entertainment purposes only.

 

[Mich Mouse]

Thank you for the responses...Some made me

I remember the days when the weather forecasters didn't seem to have a clue....They might have indicated "a bit of precipitation" and then we couldn't even leave the house for days, because we were blasted with a two feet of snow.

The technology has improved, certainly, but not enough to specifically know what will happen ten days from now! One site actually has an hour by hour forecast ten days out.

Hoping for weather! The weather in NYC is a balmy 52 degrees. (This is a heat wave for February!)

 

[Taratink]

The forcast I read before our trip was wrong. The forcast I heard while we were at WDW was wrong. It drizzled one day an the weather man was talking about the huge rainstorm. We went to MK in the intense drizzle storm and had fun anyways.
Tara

 

[apagano]

As an ex-meteorology student with friends in the business, here is what I can tell you: 10-day forecasts are good for predicting weather trends but not weather specifics. In other words, they do a good job of predicting if the next ten days will be generally warm or cool, wet or dry, but not exact conditions on particular days.

 

[FLORIDAFUNFAMILY]

They can't predict tomorrow right, much less further in the future.

 

[minijeanie]

don't even bother looking at it anymore

my first disney cruise weather was rain for all 4 days...turned out beautiful

next trip weather was supposssed to be sunny and high of 80.. turned out rained all week ...we actually left early..couldn't take the torrential downpours everyday, all day..

which is why we will never go in september again,

feel we are jinxed
so forget about weather,,,
and you will make due with what you have

 

[Uncleromulus]

Would note that if they had any confidence at all in their own 10-day forecasts , they'd give them ONCE every 10 days.
So I'll just "pile on" and say that if --at 6:00 AM-- they can tell me what the weather will be like at 6:00 PM-- I'm grateful.
But even that is often quite a struggle for them.
10 days out-as Lawshark says-is in the realm of wishful thinking.

 

[ncbyrne]

Even though we all know that long range weather predictions are impossible, we always seem compelled to check it anyway! I have tried making a graph of the weather.com accuracy for the FIVE day forecast to see how many of those five days (at five days out) are accurate. They could have done better with predictions if they tossed a coin! If you can, and I know it's difficult, stay away from the weatherman, you'll be glad you did.