Most of the time you will get it, but there is a slim chance you won't. I own at BWV for the exact reason you stated. This year I monitored prior to booking and saw how quickly the first night would go. I got on at the exact minute and booked my trip and the first day was going within 15 minutes of the window opening. Yes I got my reservation, but since my reservation was for 14 nights, I called each day afterwards to add the next day until I got my entire reservation. I also booked a standard studio for my DD for the second week and that week was a little easier. I monitored the first day after I successfully booked it and noticed that it did not sell out for at least a couple of days (that was the last week of October). Unfortunately if the first day of the reservation is not available you either have to waitlist for the entire week, or wait until the next day and hope that start date and the following days are available. So the bottom line is that there is NO guarantee that you'll get the reservation, but your chances are better than a non-BWV owner. It's just that there are so many of us BWV owners competing for the same rooms. I've never "walked" a reservation, but some folks do that, which was evident as the availability would change throughout the day during the 11 month window, which meant folks were calling and modifying their reservations.