Here now...crowd calendars WAY off!

[siskaren]

Why would you want to be on the bus at 6:15?? That seems awfully early.

DVCurious said that he goes during Spring break. I'm guessing that he's going to a park with morning EMH, which probably means 7:00 am that time of year.

 

[1983DisneyFanatic]

The predictors have been way off but, they will give you the excuse that they are still right technically. How they explain it is that a "5" from two years ago isn't the same as a "5" today. So if you took a trip back in 2013 and you experienced a "5" if you go back next month and experience a "5" it will be a lot busier because these numbers are based on a yearly calendar at WDW. They only are compared to each day in a year not to years past. If they didn't use this method there would probably never be a "1" or even a "2" predicted again at WDW. Because they use the same system of 1-10 and rank each day in terms of how busy it will be compared to other days in a calendar year that is why it feels like they are way off in their predictions these days.
If WDW gets busier every year a "1" today would feel more like a "3" from a few years ago and a "1" in five years will feel like a "5" from a few years ago.

I agree with those who say more people use these planning sites now. I've discussed this on here many times in the past and have been dismissed. But isn't it logical to think if every planning site tells you to go to WDW in September because it's the best time of the year in terms of crowds, that as more people use these sites and take their recommendations, these "slow" times will actually start to have dramatic increases in crowds??

Also one thing I've noticed is that the differences in wait times between low crowd days and higher crowds is not that big. I check the apps almost every day for wait times and I find even on the lower crowded days some of these lines are ridiculous.

I agree with you. If everyone takes "the path least traveled" it ceases to be so. The more people that follow the crowd calendars, the less effective they will be.

 

[theostwalts]

We are here as well and did MK today. We got to the park just after 9:00 am. Our first fast pass was at 12:50 for space mountain. Since the FP was for later we went counter clockwise and figured by the time we worked our way over to space mountain it would be about time. We walked on Jungle Cruise, waited about 5 min for Pirates, had a 5 min wait for splash mountain, 10 min wait for Big Thunder and then about 15 for Haunted Mansion. After that, we ate lunch at Cosmic Ray's. Then we walked on to the people mover and saw carousel of progress. All of that before our first fp. With fp space mountain took about 10 minutes. We had 2 more fast passes for splash and big thunder. While waiting for those, we rode each one in the stand by line and the wait times were shorter than posted. Big Thunder had 45 min posted and it took less than 30. Same for splash. 7dmt had posted times of 100 min so we skipped that. We have another mk day planned and we are doing MVMCP one night, so we may try then. I will say in the past we have never worried too much about getting there early, but it was a huge help today. But even so, the lines seemed to be moving well and we never waited the full posted wait time. We had diner last night in Disney Springs and it was packed but I think since it was a Saturday night a lot of locals were probably there as well.

 

[Disneylover99]

I posted a question the other day about the numbers... TP has crowd level 10 on Christmas Day and also a crowd level 10 on MLK day 2016. I don't think I can trust a service that tells me that the parks will be equally busy on Christmas and MLK day. I just don't think I believe it.

A 10 park day shows average peak wait times of SDMT as 112 minutes - 182 minutes. I'm imagining waits on MLK day would be closer to 112 minutes, while waits Christmas Day would be closer to 182 minutes. So there is a range of what constitutes waits on a day that's a 10. That's my understanding anyways.

 

[Dr.Mickey]

I was at AK yesterday too. I could only be there until about 1:30 to head for a flight but it was easily as crowded as our June trip. Walkways were jammed, Everest had a 30 min SINGLE rider line and the last I saw before I left was Safari with a 90 min wait. I know that 1:30 is middle of the day and therefore peak crowd for that day, but that was pretty intensely crowded. We have also done spring break just 2 years ago, and it honestly rivaled that. Our last time in November was about 4 years ago and it seemed a good bit slower then.

For comparison of my other days on this short trip:

HS was bad on Friday too but that is to be expected lately. MK for MVMCP on Thursday was awesome and totally worth the money, and Wednesday afternoon and evening were perfect at Food And Wine. Epcot was pretty slow for a F&W day (middle of the week), and I chose it because Easy WDW suggested it. I saw the wait times on Wednesday at MK (between party days) were awful.

 

[mshanson3121]

Went to HS Friday night crowd level 6 (touring plans) and easywdw either recommended or most recommended was a 9. Went to AK yesterday most recommended / 3 ended up as an 8.

First week of July, we went to MK on a non-recommended day, crowd level predicted of 8. Ended up being a 7. A couple days later we went to AK, most recommended park, crowd level predicted to be a 5, ended up being a 6. Not much difference by the numbers, but AK felt far worse than MK. So... I don't put much stock in those numbers.

 

[wendow]

Just an interesting tidbit to add to this discussion.. Just checked ride times.. Easywdw was way off today. Told everyone to head to the MK today as most recommended park, well if you look at ride wait times you will see crazy wait times at the MK today but at Easy's least recommended park Epcot ride wait times are quite reasonable... Hmmmmm.

I always go by Easywdw's recommendations but, he's not always right either. Although many on this forum swear by Josh's recommendations as if they are gospel.

Maybe he is becoming so popular that as more people follow his recommendations, his predictions actually become less reliable. A victim of his own massive success.. Because truthfully he has a very good reputation and like I said I have always followed his recommendations and had decent results.

I also think he has had massive success and many are following his recommendations. We have used his recs for a few years now and he has been spot on but this last Sept, his recs were off for us. My thinking since this last Sept trip is that many, many more people are using Josh's site, as well as others, like TP's to plan their trips. And combine that with increased crowds in general, and it's a mess of people...

 

[notfrostyjosh]

I also think he has had massive success and many are following his recommendations now. We have used his recs for a few years now and he has been spot on but this last Sept, his recs were off for us. My thinking since this last Sept trip for us is that many, many more people are using Josh's site, as well as others, like TP's to plan their trips.

Trust me when I say nobody reads easywdw.com.

 

[jaysmom4285]

I posted a question the other day about the numbers... TP has crowd level 10 on Christmas Day and also a crowd level 10 on MLK day 2016. I don't think I can trust a service that tells me that the parks will be equally busy on Christmas and MLK day. I just don't think I believe it.

As I understand the touring plans crowd levels, and I'm sure this is oversimplified to some degree, they more or less distributed the the 365 days of the years into ten level groupings. Level one would be the 36 or so days that are the least busy days of the year, and level ten would be the 36 days that are the busiest. With that many days in a level ten category, it doesn't mean that each day has exactly the same crowd level, and Christmas is probably busier than MLK day. But each falls within the general category of the busiest days of the year, so each qualifies as a level 10.

 

[Nancyg56]

I posted a question the other day about the numbers... TP has crowd level 10 on Christmas Day and also a crowd level 10 on MLK day 2016. I don't think I can trust a service that tells me that the parks will be equally busy on Christmas and MLK day. I just don't think I believe it.

I imagine if there was a 15, CHristmas would snag that number. Once you hit 10, I figure all bets are off.

 

[Nancyg56]

I wish I could "like" this post about ten times. Agree 100 %. I refuse to set foot in MK on a Saturday regardless of overall crowd predictions.

With the party nights taking up so many of the days we have available we have to hit MK if we want to see the evening events. After having done this last October, I know exactly what I am in for, whereas I was not prepared then. It is CROWDED! Thank goodness this tip is not about attractions!

 

[tstidm1]

We are planning a trip the day after Christmas to New Years and I have been told the crowds are insane. We usually go at thanksgiving so we are used to some crowds.
I didn't start planning the trip until 90 days out and at first I was shocked at the availability of rooms, dining reservations and even fast passes during the week after Christmas in comparison to no availability at Thanksgiving. But, I figure the crowds will consist of a large number of locals who who are on Christmas break and who do not stay on site. Because disney doesn't offer a lot of discounts during this week, there will be a lot of families who do not stay on site. ( still I've heard that resorts are at least 85 Percent full - if they offered discounts they would not have enough rooms for everyone). However, I was able to secure a discount through a travel agency as long as I was ok with a standard view room and we only had a choice of three resorts. My DD really wanted to stay at AOA again but there were no discounts and we were not willing to pay rack price for room and tickets and dining.

A lot of it has to do with people choose to stay off site over on site that time of year. That's the highest occupancy rate and pricing for hotels off site. For example, the Maingate Lakeside (a couple of miles outside of WDW on 192) is at $99.00 a night that time of year. Normally, it is at $48-55 a night. The Off Site crowds are what makes WDW most crowded that time of year.

 

[krsb09]

I'm really surprised no one has mentioned this, but what's missing in the previous discussion is the locals factor. This was the first weekend this fall with temps in the 70s and no rain. We did AK on Sat and MK/HS yesterday, and crowds were way above what we experienced over the summer during 4th of July week. 55 minutes for something like small world is a little nutty. Several of the people I talked to in lines were AP holding locals who were thrilled to finally get some nice weather. I'm curious what the crowds will be during the week this week when the numbers of locals should drop.

 

[rwdavis2]

Easy also states that it is more important to arrive early than it is to pick the right day.

So does Touring Plans.

 

[rwdavis2]

Trust me when I say nobody reads easywdw.com.

I agree. The folks here and a Easywdw are a very small minority.

 

[loves to dive]

Park Hoppers are your friend.

 

[mom2rtk]

I imagine if there was a 15, CHristmas would snag that number. Once you hit 10, I figure all bets are off.

Maybe it's time for a new scale..... one that goes up to 15.

 

[Nancyg56]

Maybe it's time for a new scale..... one that goes up to 15.

YIKES! can you imagine?

I know that there are numbers that they associate with crowd levels, but I think that a 10 is not always a 10 when you need to look at those Holidays like Christmas and Easter.

 

[Ava]

First week of July, we went to MK on a non-recommended day, crowd level predicted of 8. Ended up being a 7. A couple days later we went to AK, most recommended park, crowd level predicted to be a 5, ended up being a 6. Not much difference by the numbers, but AK felt far worse than MK. So... I don't put much stock in those numbers.

I think AK is suffering from poor traffic flow in a lot of areas due to all the construction. Some of the pathways there are narrow to begin with, then add walls along either side, and you get very congested walkways which makes the park feel more crowded than it actually is.

Also the crowd level numbers are based on wait times at the attractions, which can be an indicator of how crowded a park will feel, but it can also be deceiving if there is an event that brings a lot of people into the park who aren't necessarily riding rides, like Food & Wine at Epcot. That's why I like easywdw over Touring Plans; the explanations Josh gives as to why he is recommending or not recommending a particular park make more sense to me than a number scale that can change from year to year.

 

[goofy4prez]

I no longer use crowd calendars. I have found both Easywdw adn Touring Plans to be erratic and overall not very accurate. I get that they try to use past history, park hours, special events, EMH and etc. to figure out what may happen and predict crowd levels. But one thing that I have learned in my several trips to WDW: Busy is busy and there is no way around it. I have also learned there really is no such thing as a slow time or season anymore.