Help me understand some pricing trends...?

[pangyal]

So, resale experts...I'm hoping that maybe you can help me to get a better understanding of why resale pricing is such with certain resorts, as we are looking to add on points at another WDW property and are trying to narrow down.

First, why is BLT so much higher than all others, except for VGF? Is it only the proximity to Magic Kingdom and therefore appeals to more people? Or is there something about this resort I'm not seeing, like for example, are the expiration dates coming into play at this point?

Second, I understand that resorts that are further from the parks and not on the monorail are less desirable and sell lower, such as AKL/OKW/SSR. But, when I look at monorail or boat access resorts, Boardwalk consistently sells lower than Beach Club, and I have no idea how to interpret the sales prices for Wilderness Lodge, as they are all over the place. Is there a reason that these three easy-access resorts sell for up to $40/pt lower than BLT, and why WLV sells lower when I believe it is newer?

If anybody can shed some light on these, it would be much appreciated. We don't want to overpay, obviously. But we are really looking to see why people are willing to pay more per point for certain properties so that we can evaluate whether those reasons might be good ones for us to do the same.

Thanks in advance for opinions or rhyme and reason !

 

[CMNJ]

I am not an expert but BCV, BWV, and WL all expire in 2042 (they are all older resorts) whereas BLT expires in 2060-so you get 18 more years of points. it is also the only resort within walking distance of MK and the 1 and 2 bedrooms there have the extra sleeper chair and extra bath. As for price difference between BWV and BC I think the small size of BC, SAB, and lack of avail to get in at 7 months keeps prices inflated higher than BWV.

 

[DisneyMotherOf2]

I am not one of the experts on the boards, but I think I can answer some of your questions. For starters, BWV is the 2nd oldest DVC resort (1996) vs. BCV which was built in 2002. There's information out there pertaining to how many rooms each resort has to offer. I'm not sure how BWV and BCV compare, but would imagine they have a similar amount of rooms with possibly fewer at BCV (I believe it's one of the smallest DVC resorts). Other resorts (AKV, SSR, OKW) have a much higher capacity. Supply/demand plays into this as well as the appeal of the Epcot area and walking to a park. BCV has dedicated 2 bedrooms (with 2 queen beds in the 2nd bedroom vs. one bed and a pull out couch - plus it's one flowing unit) which in my opinion are nicer than the BWV lock-offs, which is all they offer. BCV also has the best pool on property - Storm along bay, which can be a large draw for some. Personally I love the decor of BCV over BWV. BTW - I own at both of these resorts and bought resale. BLT is one of the newer DVC's (2009) and can be a sought after resort as well. It's a newer resort that had a high price point initial buy in. The current resale rates reflect that and since there's still demand, has not depreciated at a high rate. BLT isn't one of my personal favorites, but everyone has their draw factors to a particular resort and area within Disney. Expiration dates are also a factor for the higher resale prices for BLT. VWL was built in 2000. It's also like BCV and BWV where their isn't a huge supply of rooms like at the larger resorts mentioned above. Supply and demand increases the resale prices. People are willing to pay more per point simply because (IMO) they really want to own at that particular resort. I REALLY wanted BCV and fell in love with the Epcot resort area. A couple years later I added on at BWV. I enjoyed my stay at BWV, but find BCV significantly nicer, the pool is a huge draw for my young children and I personally think it's a shorter distance walk to Epcot. Buy where you want to stay - or atleast wouldn't mind getting "stuck" if you can't change your reservation to another resort at the 7 month window. If you would be disappointed staying at the cheaper priced resorts that you bought into, then consider (if you're financially able to) spending a bit more to buy at a resort you'd really enjoy. I heard that over and over when we were first buying and I completely get it now. I would feel very disappointed to be "stuck" at certain DVC resorts. Yes, they're Disney, I'm still in Disney on vacation, but I'm just not thrilled about a couple of the resorts and really wouldn't want to be "stuck" there. Depending on the time of year you may travel, keep in mind you may not be able to switch to another resort you'd like to stay in at the 7 month marker. It does happen. For instance, I'm traveling with extended family to be there for Thanksgiving in 2016. I have enough points to book a 2 bedroom with my BWV points at 11 months out. And 2 studios at BCV with those points at 11 months out. There's a high possibility I won't be able to get 2 studios at BWV (and cancel my BCV ressies) at the 7 month window. Trading BWV for us all to stay at BCV would be next to impossible. But atleast my resorts are near each other. Worse case scenario I could probably get us all rooms at AKV, SSR or OKW because they have many more rooms and don't sell out as fast. I hope I was able to help. Good luck!

 

[Minniesgal]

I think it is just supply and demand.

Supply is low enough, sellers can ask for the prices they are looking for and will usually get close to them so most will look to recuperated as much as possible of their costs. BLT is newer so many owners paid More. VGF, VGC, VWL and BCV are very small resorts so points can carry a premium due to lack of supply.

 

[pangyal]

Thanks for the input so far, these are all excellent points !

But VWL sells significantly lower than the others in the "group" I listed above. Trying to understand why.

As well, we are looking at likely owning for about another fifteen years and then selling. I have an idea about what might happen to resale prices as the expiration dates near, but does anyone think that we would be able to sell the 2042 expiration contracts at all with only twelve years left? Maybe that's why BLT sells high too, people are thinking about resale down the line?

 

[DisneyMotherOf2]

I would imagine the prices will drop as the expiration nears, but people also said that when I bought mine in 2009 and 2011. They said I would get less than what I paid because prices would keep dropping. This hasn't been the case though. Prices have increased significantly on both BCV and BWV since I bought in. The economy was in a tank at that time and worsened even more between 2009 and 2011 where people were looking to get out of contracts. There are many resale brokers out there and I believe the one I bought BWV from often handles distressed contracts. In some of those instances you can get an excellent deal because they want to unload their contract - and at the time there were TONS of contracts that were trying to be sold. I can honestly say that when we bought BWV in 2011, we got a steal (more than $30/less a point than asking price at present if you can believe it). Disney wasn't really ROFR'ing much at that time (atleast not BWV) and I believe there were a lot of loans being defaulted on. Resale prices have skyrocketed since that time. Could this all change in the next few years - yes. Point is - you just never know...

 

[CarolMN]

..........(snip)...........we are looking at likely owning for about another fifteen years and then selling. I have an idea about what might happen to resale prices as the expiration dates near, but does anyone think that we would be able to sell the 2042 expiration contracts at all with only twelve years left? Maybe that's why BLT sells high too, people are thinking about resale down the line?

IMO, as long as the parks remain vibrant and popular, the WDW & Disneyland DVC resorts will sell. Price at that time will depend on the relative difference between Disney hotel prices and contract price as well as remaining years on the specific contract. Of course, supply and demand factor in, as well as Disney's plans for the end of the contract.

If you haven't already, take a look at the DVC Resource Center posts - they have quite a bit of historical data as well as other information that may be helpful to you. (IMO, All of the DVC STICKY THREADS are worth a look).

 

[disneynutz]

Thanks for the input so far, these are all excellent points !

But VWL sells significantly lower than the others in the "group" I listed above. Trying to understand why.

As well, we are looking at likely owning for about another fifteen years and then selling. I have an idea about what might happen to resale prices as the expiration dates near, but does anyone think that we would be able to sell the 2042 expiration contracts at all with only twelve years left? Maybe that's why BLT sells high too, people are thinking about resale down the line?

Supply and demand is the only reason for the price differences. What makes someone want a certain resort which increases demand and price is very subjective.

I suggest that you buy where you love to stay and not worry about what others think. We bought BLT, for us the views are over rated, the resort looks like a medical building, the dues keep climbing but it is an easy walk to the MK.

We also own BWV and BCV, the BCV building is pushed behind the BC, the views are average but it has access to the best feature pool at WDW. BWV is our favorite as long as we get the boardwalk view.

VGF is by far the best resort as far as the details, room furnishings, felling special because he GF is Disney's flagship resort at WDW.

I would buy at your best guess favorite resort knowing that in a few years after having first hand stay experience, you may sell and buy at your real favorite resort.

Bill

 

[pangyal]

Thank you all so much! We currently own at AKL and bought there for a relaxing time away from the parks, but want to round out our portfolio by buying a monorail resort as well. I was just so confused at why there was such a huge discrepancy between BLT and the other monorail resorts (I'm including the Epcot ones in this). It makes sense that owners are still feeling the freshness of how much they paid for BLT direct and want to recoup the costs, while the others have had time to come down. I think that's the most logical explanation!

 

[supersnoop]

Thank you all so much! We currently own at AKL and bought there for a relaxing time away from the parks, but want to round out our portfolio by buying a monorail resort as well. I was just so confused at why there was such a huge discrepancy between BLT and the other monorail resorts (I'm including the Epcot ones in this). It makes sense that owners are still feeling the freshness of how much they paid for BLT direct and want to recoup the costs, while the others have had time to come down. I think that's the most logical explanation!

BLT also has the lowest maintenance fees. Between that, the 2060 expiration, and the walkway to the Magic Kingdom, I think that's the most logical explanation.

 

[holden]

We bought resale BLT. For us, the draw was the extra bathroom and ability to sleep 5 in the 1BR. Also, the proximity to MK and dining options around the monorail are attractive. The decor of BLT is not my style, but the aforementioned features sold it for us.

Everyone has different priorities. With 3 females in our family and 1 male...an extra bathroom makes everyone happy!

 

[chalee94]

VWL is very popular around Christmas time but anecdotally has been easy to get at 7 months during the rest of the year. For trips that focus on the MK, DVC owners now have access to 3 monorail resorts when VWL "just" has a boat. VWL also has the shortest expiration date of the 4 MK resorts, as mentioned above.

BCV is smaller and has SAB (which cannot be hopped to). BWV has the option of cheaper "standard view" villas. So even though they are all 2042 resorts, there are reasons that the other resorts are more in demand.

 

[nalajms]

If you're going to sell in 15 years, does it matter what the market will be like in a few years? I'd calculate the breakeven and leave it as that. BLT will be a longer breakeven than the cheaper VWL, but still better than VGF or direct Poly. That's how I viewed it when we added on at AKV and SSR a few years ago. We need the points for 10+ years. We'll breakeven well before that. Any proceeds I get from selling will be profit.

Another point is the "lesser" resort prices are more sensitive to the economy. They fell much lower during the recession but also increased more when things recovered and when Disney started increasing direct prices.

 

[crisi]

There is a reason other than supply and demand - and that's the current owners cost.

I bought BWV for $63 a point over a decade ago. Five years later BCV resales were going for $100 a point. If I sell, I look at selling at $80 as a profitable transaction. If BCV owner at $100 a point sells at $80 a point, he may feel that the years of enjoyment have more than made up for the loss, but emotionally, he'd like to get closer to his buy in costs.

For a BLT owner who bought direct at $130, selling for $80 a point isn't realistic - they may still even have a loan, they haven't owned for enough years to be able to make the enjoyment argument of a BCV owner with almost a decade of ownership.

I'm not saying that supply and demand isn't a factor - it certainly is. But what owners are willing to part with their properties for is also a factor, and that ties into their buy in costs and how long they've owned.

 

[kgeary]

We bought resale at HHI and BLT. BLT because of the closeness to MK...we have 3 boys under age 6 who love the monorail. Bought nearly two yeas ago for $80 at BLT with a fully loaded contract...honestly I have no idea how it wasn't ROFRed.

You definitely feel like you are in the Disney Bubble being there. Also close to golf, all the restaurants, and general buzz of being close to the MK and being able to hop over there for an hour if we want late at night or early in the morning. My suggestion is take a short trip to WDW and spend some time at the resorts you want to buy before making a decision. We stayed at Contemporary 3 months before we bought DVC resale so we felt like you decision was easy.

 

[hcipi]

We bought resale BLT. For us, the draw was the extra bathroom and ability to sleep 5 in the 1BR. Also, the proximity to MK and dining options around the monorail are attractive. The decor of BLT is not my style, but the aforementioned features sold it for us.

Everyone has different priorities. With 3 females in our family and 1 male...an extra bathroom makes everyone happy!

Nailed it! I am a poly lover- the theming, grounds, pool etc, however the space at BLT, and the view of the poly are all good for me! I bought direct first time, but am looking to add points so when I die there will be an equal split for my three kids who can enjoy it until 2060!! I am a practical person!