Help me think thru Direct purchase of RR or BLT

[MinnieSueB]

Purchased resale (200 pts) of SSR with deed recording 6/17 so still waiting for DVC to upload our new membership account.
We are wanting to buy direct with the new incentives for existing members of 200 Direct RR but those dues have me second guessing, but we love RR. We enjoy staying in 1 or 2 bedrooms and don't mind split stays in combining with the resale contract. I'm not worried about selling RR down the road if need be. Most buying RR on the resale market only want to stay at RR anyway. We actually want to break it up into (2) 100 point contracts for our 2 girls (19 & 14) to be passed down to them eventually. The only other resort I would consider buying direct is BLT (and only 100 pts) but really leaning towards RR. I think we should be able to get BLT 1 bedroom at 7 months b/c we don't travel during holidays or busy times to DW. How difficult has it been to get 1/2 bedrooms at RR at 7 months? That $160/pt at RR looks really good but only drawback are those MFs.

 

[sethschroeder]

Why 200 at RIV and 100 at BLT? Upfront price? That is a fairly large swing 300 to 400 points.

Something to consider is your SSR points can never be used at RIV. Does that matter to you?

A nice thing about RIV is that fewer people will want to book there except to experience 1 time. BWV/BCV for the next 20 years will consistently be a go to because of lower point requirements. So there is a better chance outside of the fall timeframe that you will be able to get a room at RIV (although rooms are more and you would have less points 300 instead of the 400).

The benefit of getting RIV is that you can lock in an Epcot stay while using your SSR points for the MK part of your split stay.

Sorry to add the MFs are a difference do the math on 200 RIV vs BLT 100 and its $1000/yr (although BLT will increase slightly more annually but will still likely be cheaper for a decade or more).

 

[EM Lawrence]

The long term booking at RIV is still very unclear. Nobody knows how hard it will be to book when more contracts get converted to resale buyers. It’s very possible that it will be difficult to book because resale buyers can only book there, and so would presumably book right at the 11 month mark, or even walk reservations to be sure they get a room. That is one of the things that has scared me off of RIV. The resale restrictions may not bother you with the thought of if you have to sell eventually, but they could still negatively impact RIV owners. Just a lot that is unknown at this point.

 

[MinnieSueB]

Why 200 at RIV and 100 at BLT? Upfront price? That is a fairly large swing 300 to 400 points.

Something to consider is your SSR points can never be used at RIV. Does that matter to you?

A nice thing about RIV is that fewer people will want to book there except to experience 1 time. BWV/BCV for the next 20 years will consistently be a go to because of lower point requirements. So there is a better chance outside of the fall timeframe that you will be able to get a room at RIV (although rooms are more and you would have less points 300 instead of the 400).

The benefit of getting RIV is that you can lock in an Epcot stay while using your SSR points for the MK part of your split stay.

Sorry to add the MFs are a difference do the math on 200 RIV vs BLT 100 and its $1000/yr (although BLT will increase slightly more annually but will still likely be cheaper for a decade or more).

Yes the SSR points are SAP is also the reasoning for purchasing at RIV to only stay there so definitely using SSR points for MK - was just wondering how difficult 1 bedrooms @ BLT were to book at 7 month. I think my heart is still leaning to RIV (200 points to split b/w our girls for the next 50 years) just hoping those dues don't get too crazy. The $160/pt is really good IMO - Also will probably purchase close to when new incentives will be announced & see if they are better. I just don't see DVC selling a ton right now & I'm thinking they may throw in a few more freebies. Disney will get back to normal eventually just may take a year or so. Timing is everything.

 

[MinnieSueB]

The long term booking at RIV is still very unclear. Nobody knows how hard it will be to book when more contracts get converted to resale buyers. It’s very possible that it will be difficult to book because resale buyers can only book there, and so would presumably book right at the 11 month mark, or even walk reservations to be sure they get a room. That is one of the things that has scared me off of RIV. The resale restrictions may not bother you with the thought of if you have to sell eventually, but they could still negatively impact RIV owners. Just a lot that is unknown at this point.

True - that's why I wanted to have a discussion here. Thanks

 

[sethschroeder]

when more contracts get converted to resale buyers.

I think that is the risk long term but with the RIV points being direct they would be able to use them elsewhere and having points at RIV will give them the best chance to book there.

Flip side is that while more RIV contracts get flipped so do other resorts that can no longer book at RIV. You actually will more quickly have more people not be able to book than people who can only book there. I also think you need to account for resorts like VGC, BCV, BWV, VGF where people buy there because that's the only place they want to book.

As you said unclear and there is a major risk as a resale buyer at RIV but not so much as a direct buyer (except once you go to sell).

 

[Fred M]

The long term booking at RIV is still very unclear. Nobody knows how hard it will be to book when more contracts get converted to resale buyers. It’s very possible that it will be difficult to book because resale buyers can only book there, and so would presumably book right at the 11 month mark, or even walk reservations to be sure they get a room. That is one of the things that has scared me off of RIV. The resale restrictions may not bother you with the thought of if you have to sell eventually, but they could still negatively impact RIV owners. Just a lot that is unknown at this point.

That was my fear. My wife and I bought DVC with the idea that it's something we'd never voluntarily sell. So the retail restrictions on the sale aren't a big deal for us. However, with any DVC contract, there is a comfort level that space will always be there between 11 months and 7 months at your home resort. Is the Riviera experience going to be all studios go at 10 months because people can't stay somewhere else? If that doesn't happen, and there is space available between 11-7 months, I think some people will be more comfortable buying Riviera, even on resale. I thought about picking up a small contract at Riviera until the plans for the new Disneyland DVC were announced ...

 

[3 DD love princesses]

If you don’t plan to ever sell then riv makes sense bc you want to stay there. If you think you will sell at some point I’d be hesitant to buy RIV. No one knows how the resale will be for RIV.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[MinnieSueB]

if the trend holds for the last three Walt Disney World resorts (VFG, PVB, CCV), then RVA dues being high may be a temporary concern; of course the past doesn't always predict the future ...

View attachment 512667
https://www.disboards.com/threads/annual-dues-deviation-from-average.3807594/


one bedrooms especially are typically the last to book; however with RVA having fewer standard view than preferred view units, I'd recommend you get comfortable that you may have to book preferred rooms for future stays (whether at 11 or 7 months)

it's just a snapshot in time but RVA seems to have slightly better availability than BLT at 6-7 months for 6-7 months from now for standard rooms and roughly equal for preferred rooms; but keep three things in mind ...

1. we're in unique times right now
2. RVA has far more points declared (~2.4M) into the resort than are purchased (~1.4M recorded through Jun 2020) so the rooms available to book by non-owners at 7 months may be artificially high (until RVA sells out)
3. countering #2, folks may be trying out RVA over the next few years but might not have a desire to come back in the future; this may temporarily inflate demand at 7 months

standard rooms

	1 bedroom	2 bedroom
BLT standard​	View attachment 512673​	View attachment 512674​
RVA standard​	View attachment 512676​	View attachment 512677​

preferred rooms

​	1 bedroom​	2 bedroom​
BLT lake*​	View attachment 512678​	View attachment 512679​
RVA preferred​	View attachment 512684​	View attachment 512682​

* BLT theme park was slightly worse than BLT lake for availability


mine does too

good luck in making your decision, either way you're picking from two great options!

Thank you for all the charts/graphs. I love graphs!!! Looks like my husband's graphs from tracking Covid from March 20 - and he continues! lol Keeps his sanity vs. watching the news. Yes, my heart is saying Riviera and we have just been blessed with a large sum of money due to a relative passing. Life is way too short to sweat the small stuff. It needs to be enjoyed!

 

[sethschroeder]

RVA dues being high may be a temporary concern;

Because other ones are higher lol.

If you look at VGF/POLY you will notice they are tracking with the other resorts on "being expensive".

Now in 20-30 years I don't think its going to be anything to talk about but there is a large build up of delta occuring right now because remember that RIV is also expensive for point charts.

Remember in 20-30 years a $1 difference in MFs or lets say its even $0.25 more is basically meaningless. Its basically like going back in time 20 years when a $0.25 difference was "big" but now its not even something you consider.

RVA seems to have slightly better availability than BLT

I think it will stay that way simply based on BWV/BCV being so inexpensive and people shooting for those resorts first. I also wonder what new declaration of rooms does as well and if that throws off the "heat map" of when rooms are taken.

I know RIV owners hate but BLT is walkable to MK while RIV still has to take the Skyliner (yes @i<3riviera I know its the 11th wonder of the world hahaha)

 

[sethschroeder]

Thank you for all the charts/graphs. I love graphs!!! Looks like my husband's graph's from tracking Covid from March 20 - and he continues! lol Keeps his sanity vs. watching the news. Yes, my heart is saying Riviera and we have just been blessed with a large sum of money due to a relative passing. Life is way too short to sweat the small stuff. It needs to be enjoyed!

Might not be his thing but if he is tracking COVID check out: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

If your heart is saying RIV, then go for it! You need to be happy with your purchase

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

@i<3riviera is right, it IS the 11th wonder of the world!!!