Hard to deny prices dropping now

[heynowirv]

I will continue to deny it. Although there are some great deals out there the prices I see at ROFR seems to me to be pretty consistent with what the've been for the last 6 months. If people have been looking for 2009 price drops I honestly don't see it happening .
Now if COVID continues to plague us as it appears it will and Disney needs to reclose it might be a different story.

 

[TTA Rider Matt]

I bought Poly at $137 a point/100 points in February. I have seen the same contracts go for $120-$130, but that doesn't seem to be the majority, and more recently, they're going in the high $130's/$140's again based on the ROFR thread. I think there was a temporary dip, but as an owner, it's good to see that even through the pandemic, the product has held its value, even with Disney foregoing the ROFR process the past few months. It may stink for people who want to buy, but I would rather see a trend that I view as a better long-term future for the DVC resale market.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

I will continue to deny it. Although there are some great deals out there the prices I see at ROFR seems to me to be pretty consistent with what the've been for the last 6 months. If people have been looking for 2009 price drops I honestly don't see it happening .
Now if COVID continues to plague us as it appears it will and Disney needs to reclose it might be a different story.

I'm looking to buy my first contract and I'm seeing minimal overall movement as well. Any hope of big price drops is likely 3-6 months away if that even happens.

 

[becauseimnew]

I wonder if this ticket mess situation is going to drive resale prices down even more?

 

[mentos]

I wonder if this ticket mess situation is going to drive resale prices down even more?

God I hope so, I want another VGC contract for $150/pt or less but I probably have a better chance of meeting the Tooth Fairy

 

[Ms.Minnie]

From what I'm seeing via the listing DVC agents out there the prices don't seem to be dropping. Maybe I have to start paying attention to the ROFR thread, might give me a better idea of what might be over priced.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

I wonder if this ticket mess situation is going to drive resale prices down even more?

I don't think it will. I think the bigger potential issue is if things close down again for an extended period of time. If the parks close again or multiple times over the next 6-12 months that could cause issues with availability in the future.

 

[smstewart_9554]

I'm looking to buy my first contract and I'm seeing minimal overall movement as well. Any hope of big price drops is likely 3-6 months away if that even happens.

Agreed, only a deepening recession would likely alter resale values in the coming months.

 

[mentos]

Agreed, only a deepening recession would likely alter resale values in the coming months.

I agree, given the process it takes to sell, if folks are having immediate cash flow issues, unloading DVC isn't going to be (yet) high on the list.

But the deeper any economic pain goes, I think you might see some higher than usual turnover as people reorient their spending.

I'm trying to think of the economic demographic that buys/owns DVC and my gut says a lot of them are actually coming out financially better in this pandemic, therefore unlikely to have a need to sell.

I'm gonna predict a 5% price drop over the next year, return to baseline in about 2-3 years, up to 8% drop for lower demand resorts. This is not based on any financial knowledge, just a hunch.

 

[Cfrone]

I'm trying to think of the economic demographic that buys/owns DVC and my gut says a lot of them are actually coming out financially better in this pandemic, therefore unlikely to have a need to sell.

Certainly not trying to brag (and feel terrible for those struggling) but this certainly applies to us and is one of the reasons we finally purchased a resale contract. We had been considering DVC for a while now but the money we were able to save over the last 3 months or so gave us the financial flexibility to make the purchase.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

We were hoping to pick up a second home for a discount. Figured covid would scare off some short term rental owners at least. Nope. Nationally sales are way up and so are prices. Interest rates are low, inventory is low and house sales (even in snow bird areas) are popping off. Homes that that didn’t sell after a bit were removed rather than lowered. 2010 this isn’t and won’t be.
DVC even in Fidelity is creeping up.

 

[RoseGold]

I bought in late 2019, and prices look pretty much the same to me. Sure, there were some bargains out there, as there were pre-covid as well.

I'm actually shocked prices have held as well as they have.

 

[sethschroeder]

It's also worth noting that VGC is the one resort you cannot simply go buy anytime you want because it's so small and there are few contracts available at any given time, so really a seller can name their price as long as it's below direct and there will likely be someone who wants it.

Except direct list was closed for wait list last I remeber.

 

[My3kids1989]

I'm new here - "Hard to Deny" makes it seem like something you wouldn't want to admit. Probably phrasing that poorly but I think you get what I mean.

Why is that? If you bought previously that's not really a concern and if you aren't planning on selling then it isn't an issue either, right?

I said this in another post, but we just bought our contract and had the discussion about prices falling. What it came down to is that we felt like it was worth what we were paying for it, and if someone gets an even better deal than us then good for them.

Is the concern more for people with recent buyer's remorse, people looking to sell or am I missing something? Thanks

Welcome iowa, I’m in Iowa too and just bought my first contract. I paid what might be considered a high price but it was loaded and I wanted it so I’m happy

 

[Noah_t]

As much as I would like to get a Beach Club contract for a good price I would love to see Disney step up and start exercising its ROFR again. It always added a feeling of support knowing they would not let prices drop even if this was not their main reason.