Hard time deciding how many points we truly need.

[VGCgroupie]

I told my husband there is a VGC contract in our UY for just a smidge more points than we "need" that's been just sitting for a while. (So maybe they'd take a lower offer than asking?) He's like "maybe we should just put in an offer."

Personally, I'm still on the fence between the two contracts so I have no plans to put an offer down right now.

He keeps going back and forth too actually. One day he'll be really excited about the prospect of owning at VDH and the next he'd rather just do all VGC.

I'd like to wait and make a decision when we are definitely confident in one over the other. But I fear that. may never actually happen.

Offer lower than what you would buy the contract at over VDH simply due to money savings. If they decline they decline. But if you think you'd be sad they took that ultra low offer then maybe that is your answer.

 

[ClaraOswald]

Well, I could never make an offer for VGC for the same price PP as VDH. So maybe I'm misunderstanding what you are suggesting.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Well, I could never make an offer for VGC for the same price PP as VDH. So maybe I'm misunderstanding what you are suggesting.

Im saying offer low. A price for VGC that you would not be able to refuse. If there is no number you couldn't refuse then I think you have your answer, you want VDH not VGC.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I will also add if you are not comfortable offering low right now then you clearly are nowhere near ready to buy.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I'm just saying....VDH would be roughly $190 per point. And there's literally no way to get VGC at $190 per point. Even if someone wanted to accept an offer as insane as that, it would be ROFRed in 2 seconds. Ha!

The better upfront deal, pricewise, will always be VDH. I don't know of any way VGC would cost less up front. In the long run, yes...because it has less years. Plus, if we go with VGC we would purchase less points, which means less in dues.

Which is why the price differences seem to level out a bit, in my mind. To me, it's going to come down to my gut feelings. Well, and my husband's. And hopefully our guts are in sync.

 

[TinkAgainU]

I think at the beginning of the thread, I was focusing more on getting more resale at VGC. Currently, I'm on the fence between more VGC resale or getting some direct VDH and alternating where we stay. (Really leaning toward VDH now.) But no, we would likely never be traveling as a couple as we will never be empty nesters. And honestly, I don't think I'd enjoy a duo even if we were.

I think you already have VGC so can check for yourself, but right now, for example, 11 months out you cannot rent a single night in a Studio as they are all prebooked a week further ahead. Maybe those are All walkers and a few nights will come up, but I find both VGC and DLH marginal as a purchase for a "small points contract" due to the number of people with a LOT more points booking over a week out (walking). My guess is many of the walkers are pros renting them out, since they don't seem to come back as walked thru and I can only grab one night here and there - so I end up staying offsite anyway as a split stay?

I looked at buying DLH and for a small number of points, trying to get a Duo was horrific unless I wanted the Standard Room and booked exactly at 11 months. Standard Rooms at DLH are all Parking Lot views. Why would I pay big bucks for That view when there are plenty of nice hotels in the area and I can Uber to the resorts if I just want to walk around in "the bubble" lol.

 

[TinkAgainU]

...
I’ll be 90 & 104… yes scary indeed. lol
I think as long as you’re getting 25-30 years it makes no difference, except possibly in resale if selling late in the contract life.

Once I realized my kids are not the big planner you MUST MUST MUST be to use DVC properly (ie: book at 11 months out and keep track of rather confusing dates), I needed to figure the cost of my membership not on the expiration date, but some reasonable expiration of how long I'd want to go to DLP or WDW especially if flying is part of the equation. I did not find 90 or 100 years old to be feasible for me to do that. So, I took the COMFORTABLE number of years and used that for calculations. Frankly, it busted Direct out immediately, and most Resale starts looking iffy too.

I've shared my "simplified" calculations before, but here as a FAKE EXAMPLE:

A) I've calculated I need 146 points per year for the 5 nites I want to stay in a studio room. That means I need to buy 150 points since resale on odd numbers is notably slower, and a few points might change. P.S. I'm smart enough not to calculate on the cheapest rooms, since something like Boardwalk Standard or Animal Kingdom Value are rarely available even at 11 months.
B) My home resorts have 16 or 30 years left, but I figure I'll likely only travel for 12 more years, meaning 60 nights (12yr x 5nites). If you are younger, with a longer Deed expiration these calculations obviously look more positive.
C) My home resort costs me $25,000 in purchase price, including closing costs.
D) My home resort currently costs me $1500 in Annual dues (150 points x $10/pp)

OVER SIMPLIFIED Calculation:

$25,000 upfront, divided by 60 nights = $417 per night
$1500 per year, divided by 5 nights = $300 per night
(Add Transient Tax per night for Aulani or DLH)

I'm paying ROUGHLY $717 per night for my studio room.

Yes, maybe there is resale value at 12 years, or I'll go more years - but I'm using MY theory here lol. And like all timeshares, dues will increase, plus compared to a regular hotel - I'm stressed trying to get nights I want, cancellation terms are brutal, and for those 12 years I'm presuming I'll want all those vacations at Disney instead of somewhere else. YMMV

 

[juliebee]

OVER SIMPLIFIED Calculation:

$25,000 upfront, divided by 60 nights = $417 per night
$1500 per year, divided by 5 nights = $300 per night
(Add Transient Tax per night for Aulani or DLH)

I'm paying ROUGHLY $717 per night for my studio room.

That is a very interesting way to look at this and rather eye-opening. I think I'm going to pretend I didn't see this Ugh.

 

[VGCgroupie]

That is a very interesting way to look at this and rather eye-opening. I think I'm going to pretend I didn't see this Ugh.

Couple things. First and foremost your new signature banner for Poly is hands down the best I have seen!

Next, Im sure I can come up with a way to show that it's better than what the numbers above are saying but not sure I have math in me at the moment. I will update if/when I come up with some numbers.

 

[juliebee]

well, I've decided... I just have to live forever. I'm determined to get every night possible out of these memberships.

 

[VGCgroupie]

well, I've decided... I just have to live forever. I'm determined to get every night possible out of these memberships.

Yes!!

 

[tx911]

well, I've decided... I just have to live forever. I'm determined to get every night possible out of these memberships.

I think I only have to make it to 100. Piece of cake!

 

[Chili327]

Once I realized my kids are not the big planner you MUST MUST MUST be to use DVC properly (ie: book at 11 months out and keep track of rather confusing dates), I needed to figure the cost of my membership not on the expiration date, but some reasonable expiration of how long I'd want to go to DLP or WDW especially if flying is part of the equation. I did not find 90 or 100 years old to be feasible for me to do that. So, I took the COMFORTABLE number of years and used that for calculations. Frankly, it busted Direct out immediately, and most Resale starts looking iffy too.

I've shared my "simplified" calculations before, but here as a FAKE EXAMPLE:

A) I've calculated I need 146 points per year for the 5 nites I want to stay in a studio room. That means I need to buy 150 points since resale on odd numbers is notably slower, and a few points might change. P.S. I'm smart enough not to calculate on the cheapest rooms, since something like Boardwalk Standard or Animal Kingdom Value are rarely available even at 11 months.
B) My home resorts have 16 or 30 years left, but I figure I'll likely only travel for 12 more years, meaning 60 nights (12yr x 5nites). If you are younger, with a longer Deed expiration these calculations obviously look more positive.
C) My home resort costs me $25,000 in purchase price, including closing costs.
D) My home resort currently costs me $1500 in Annual dues (150 points x $10/pp)

OVER SIMPLIFIED Calculation:

$25,000 upfront, divided by 60 nights = $417 per night
$1500 per year, divided by 5 nights = $300 per night
(Add Transient Tax per night for Aulani or DLH)

I'm paying ROUGHLY $717 per night for my studio room.

Yes, maybe there is resale value at 12 years, or I'll go more years - but I'm using MY theory here lol. And like all timeshares, dues will increase, plus compared to a regular hotel - I'm stressed trying to get nights I want, cancellation terms are brutal, and for those 12 years I'm presuming I'll want all those vacations at Disney instead of somewhere else. YMMV

$717 for a studio seems pricey?
That doesn’t count if you sold the contract in 12 years or does it?

 

[Chili327]

Couple things. First and foremost your new signature banner for Poly is hands down the best I have seen!

Yep. I really miss the Disney banner style signatures!!

 

[AstroBlasters]

I told my husband there is a VGC contract in our UY for just a smidge more points than we "need" that's been just sitting for a while. (So maybe they'd take a lower offer than asking?) He's like "maybe we should just put in an offer."

Personally, I'm still on the fence between the two contracts so I have no plans to put an offer down right now.

He keeps going back and forth too actually. One day he'll be really excited about the prospect of owning at VDH and the next he'd rather just do all VGC.

I'd like to wait and make a decision when we are definitely confident in one over the other. But I fear that. may never actually happen.

I’d make an offer on that VGC contract…. a small “ish” contract that’s not stripped in your Use Year.

The last ROFR report showed $241 as the highest ROFR’d price in December.

Of course, even if you got it for $241…. that would be the equivalent of buying 161 VDH points at $190pp in upfront costs….

Ugh…. tough one…. fun mental exercise to have at family dinner in January though….

 

[ClaraOswald]

I’d make an offer on that VGC contract…. a small “ish” contract that’s not stripped in your Use Year.

The last ROFR report showed $241 as the highest ROFR’d price in December.

Of course, even if you got it for $241…. that would be the equivalent of buying 161 VDH points at $190pp in upfront costs….

Ugh…. tough one…. fun mental exercise to have at family dinner in January though….

Yep...it's tricky and it why we keep going back and forth on the two options. Both have their pros and cons.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I think you already have VGC so can check for yourself, but right now, for example, 11 months out you cannot rent a single night in a Studio as they are all prebooked a week further ahead. Maybe those are All walkers and a few nights will come up, but I find both VGC and DLH marginal as a purchase for a "small points contract" due to the number of people with a LOT more points booking over a week out (walking). My guess is many of the walkers are pros renting them out, since they don't seem to come back as walked thru and I can only grab one night here and there - so I end up staying offsite anyway as a split stay?

I looked at buying DLH and for a small number of points, trying to get a Duo was horrific unless I wanted the Standard Room and booked exactly at 11 months. Standard Rooms at DLH are all Parking Lot views. Why would I pay big bucks for That view when there are plenty of nice hotels in the area and I can Uber to the resorts if I just want to walk around in "the bubble" lol.

Yeah, December is tricky, especially for studios. We were able to get one this past December but I walked it, just to be sure.

The main reason we are wanting more points is actually to get out of studios. We want to be in 1-bedrooms for the foreseeable future. Thankfully, at VGC those are a bit easier to get throughout most of the year. I am concerned about not being able to get one at VDH though.

Once I realized my kids are not the big planner you MUST MUST MUST be to use DVC properly (ie: book at 11 months out and keep track of rather confusing dates), I needed to figure the cost of my membership not on the expiration date, but some reasonable expiration of how long I'd want to go to DLP or WDW especially if flying is part of the equation. I did not find 90 or 100 years old to be feasible for me to do that. So, I took the COMFORTABLE number of years and used that for calculations. Frankly, it busted Direct out immediately, and most Resale starts looking iffy too.

I've shared my "simplified" calculations before, but here as a FAKE EXAMPLE:

A) I've calculated I need 146 points per year for the 5 nites I want to stay in a studio room. That means I need to buy 150 points since resale on odd numbers is notably slower, and a few points might change. P.S. I'm smart enough not to calculate on the cheapest rooms, since something like Boardwalk Standard or Animal Kingdom Value are rarely available even at 11 months.
B) My home resorts have 16 or 30 years left, but I figure I'll likely only travel for 12 more years, meaning 60 nights (12yr x 5nites). If you are younger, with a longer Deed expiration these calculations obviously look more positive.
C) My home resort costs me $25,000 in purchase price, including closing costs.
D) My home resort currently costs me $1500 in Annual dues (150 points x $10/pp)

OVER SIMPLIFIED Calculation:

$25,000 upfront, divided by 60 nights = $417 per night
$1500 per year, divided by 5 nights = $300 per night
(Add Transient Tax per night for Aulani or DLH)

I'm paying ROUGHLY $717 per night for my studio room.

Yes, maybe there is resale value at 12 years, or I'll go more years - but I'm using MY theory here lol. And like all timeshares, dues will increase, plus compared to a regular hotel - I'm stressed trying to get nights I want, cancellation terms are brutal, and for those 12 years I'm presuming I'll want all those vacations at Disney instead of somewhere else. YMMV

I've done something similar. I definitely think that selling a contract with a decent amount of years on it means I'd get some many back in the end.

For our BRV contract, we'll likely keep that until the end. I'll be 61 at that time, so not too bad. But I suspect we will sell our VGC points down the road. But I just have no idea when because it will all depend on our health in the future. And that is way too unpredictable. I do know that one positive if we decide to buy VDH over more VGC is that when it comes time to sell, there will be more years on a VDH which potentially makes it worth more.

well, I've decided... I just have to live forever. I'm determined to get every night possible out of these memberships.

We say that a lot in relation to our son. We basically need to live forever because we need to take care of him.

 

[TinkAgainU]

Next, Im sure I can come up with a way to show that it's better than what the numbers above are saying but not sure I have math in me at the moment. I will update if/when I come up with some numbers.

The numbers immediately look better if you spread the first number (purchase price and closing costs) out over more years (nights) by being younger and committed to coming to Disney for the rest of your life, coupled with getting a resort with a later deed expiration. But keep in mind, there is a reason there is such an active Resale market - Lots of people decide for various reasons, they want to sell their DVC, obviously well before the Deeds expired.

It's important to realize if you are only talking to current DVC members (especially those currently buying) you will get a hugely different perspective than if you speak to past owners, non-Disney people, or your accountant lol. You can also make a guess as to a resale price to offset the purchase price, but it's usually not recommended to base future performance on past performance for ANY Timeshare - especially since Disney has somewhat marketed to the benefit of DVC resale in the past, but is clearly not doing so going forward.

I have enjoyed DVC but I try to look at it with eyes wide open.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I think DVC certainly isn't a product for every person. And not even for every Disney parks lover. It's a very personal thing that won't work for everyone.