Happy Disney 2017

[lockedoutlogic]

Folks predicting a new Disney resort hotel or an exclusive DVC property-- any thoughts about theming?

DVC is currently overpriced...so new developments have been as uncertain as they have been since pre-saratoga

The next moves have been fairly telegraphed: tower at poly, replacement of south wing at contemporary, conversion at grand floridaon....perhaps an add on at beach or yacht.

That's how it's lined up.

 

[Madonna3]

Oh I see...but the net effect is the same: disney taking on more operational and employee expense to convince people to book at a reduced rate.

They aren't playing that game these days.

Would it be additional expense? I mean, the rooms are already there. You're already paying housekeeping, you're already paying front desk staff, but instead of having a deluxe at less than 90% capacity, you're running at 90%? I can't see the reduced rate costing more. In fact, not filling up the rooms costs more.

 

[Madonna3]

Folks predicting a new Disney resort hotel or an exclusive DVC property-- any thoughts about theming?

I agree with lockedout. The current move is to eat up the glutton of available deluxe rooms by converting them to DVC. I doubt we'll see something "new" outside of current theming.

 

[Roxyfire]

DVC is currently overpriced...so new developments have been as uncertain as they have been since pre-saratoga

I've been trying pretty hard to understand how it would financially benefit someone to buy into DVC right now but I absolutely cannot see it. Maybe someone smarter than me sees something I don't.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Would it be additional expense? I mean, the rooms are already there. You're already paying housekeeping, you're already paying front desk staff, but instead of having a deluxe at less than 90% capacity, you're running at 90%? I can't see the reduced rate costing more. In fact, not filling up the rooms costs more.

Nobody believes me...but rack disney hotels are not money makers. My Math is pre huge increases in all costs...so they may be more palatable now....but the core principle holds.

Why is DVC so great?...For them?

The main thing is guaranteed business...but it's also a tremendous reduction in operational costs. Limited amenities...vastly limited employees.

The way rack hotels are run by disney: high employee to guest ratio, unnecessary operational expenses, a huge transport grid to maintain, massive waste in the food segments...they don't churn out bucks. They are there to "get you there". Disney has always ate the costs to control the message and direct the customers to other revenue streams.

So any talk of new hotels had to be tempered by that.

Am I saying that I have been in meetings in a past life where 90% occupancy of developments didn't interest them because of longterm escalating costs?

...maybe

 

[Madonna3]

I've been trying pretty hard to understand how it would financially benefit someone to buy into DVC right now but I absolutely cannot see it. Maybe someone smarter than me sees something I don't.

As a current DVC owner who considers herself "upper" income, I can tell you now that the current DVC pricing is too far out of reach for us to add on. We'll be sticking with what we have until we're ready to sell it.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I've been trying pretty hard to understand how it would financially benefit someone to buy into DVC right now but I absolutely cannot see it. Maybe someone smarter than me sees something I don't.

DVC is currently overpriced. How do I know? They are not increasing sales when the economic indicators warrant it. People aren't buying more...they aren't making "the leap".

I spoke with a friend who bought resale at half price...laughed out loud at the prices from the DVC sales office...and the lack of benefits now to resale buyers didnt deter them one bit.

 

[Madonna3]

Nobody believes me...but rack disney hotels are not money makers. My Math is pre huge increases in all costs...so they may be more palatable now....but the core principle holds.

Why is DVC so great?...For them?

The main thing is guaranteed business...but it's also a tremendous reduction in operational costs. Limited amenities...vastly limited employees.

The way rack hotels are run by disney: high employee to guest ratio, unnecessary operational expenses, a huge transport grid to maintain, massive waste in the food segments...they don't churn out bucks. They are there to "get you there". Disney has always ate the costs to control the message and direct the customers to other revenue streams.

So any talk of new hotels had to be tempered by that.

Am I saying that I have been in meetings in a past life where 90% occupancy of developments didn't interest them because of longterm escalating costs?

...maybe

Perhaps all of this is true, but there's still a ton of money to be made on the DVC rental market and I am surprised Disney hasn't tapped into it, unless the owners or brokers doing all the work for no extra cost to Disney is truly a blessing to them. However, I think there has got to be a burst of that bubble eventually.

 

[Madonna3]

DVC is currently overpriced. How do I know? They are not increasing sales when the economic indicators warrant it. People aren't buying more...they aren't making "the leap".

I spoke with a friend who bought resale at half price...laughed out loud at the prices from the DVC sales office...and the lack of benefits now to resale buyers didnt deter them one bit.

Well that's promising for me when I decide to sell.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

As a current DVC owner who considers herself "upper" income, I can tell you now that the current DVC pricing is too far out of reach for us to add on. We'll be sticking with what we have until we're ready to sell it.

You, me, and most everyone else.

It's not that I haven't considered it...it's not that I couldn't swallow the price...it's that i don't want too because the price has exceeded the justifiable consumer value.

 

[ElyseInWonderland]

I've been trying pretty hard to understand how it would financially benefit someone to buy into DVC right now but I absolutely cannot see it. Maybe someone smarter than me sees something I don't.

My fiance and I have thought the same thing for months. We were considering buying in but just can't come up with a way that it makes financial sense!

I also predict more M&G's in Disney Springs.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Perhaps all of this is true, but there's still a ton of money to be made on the DVC rental market and I am surprised Disney hasn't tapped into it, unless the owners or brokers doing all the work for no extra cost to Disney is truly a blessing to them. However, I think there has got to be a burst of that bubble eventually.

I think DVC wants to eliminate the rental market...it's easy: modify contracts to say that owners must be registered as guests on all bookings. Or charge a third party surcharge of $100 a night.

Boom...done...finito...

But i don't think they like their chances of not having a massive dump of resale points at places like Saratoga, aulani, old key west, animal kingdom if they do. I guarantee there's buyers remorse at the poly...

In fact...I bet dimes to dollars that their research thinks this would be likely.

DVC is very easy to walk away from...nobody "needs" it if thy feel they're getting screwed...they have to want it enough to be willing to pay. That is a huge difference.

You can't sell ferraris in fiat numbers.

 

[Madonna3]

You, me, and most everyone else.

It's not that I haven't considered it...it's not that I couldn't swallow the price...it's that i don't want too because the price has exceeded the justifiable consumer value.

Our isn't paid off yet. We financed through Disney and then refinanced (Disney was quicker since it was instant approval and in order to access my credit line I had to come home and fill out stuff with the bank, so that's what we did), but sure, we pay for 10 years (7 in our case with refi) and then I have points to make money for the next 40 years. However, the maintenance fees and dues exceed what I'll make on the points. Up until a few years ago, it was a good deal. Disney got capital, I got vacations and didn't have to include lodging in the budget. However, now, I sell the points, pay the fees, and then go pay cash somewhere else.

 

[Madonna3]

I think DVC wants to eliminate the rental market...it's easy: modify contracts to say that owners must be registered as guests on all bookings. Or charge a third party surcharge of $100 a night.

Boom...done...finito...

But i don't think they like their chances of not having a massive dump of resale points at places like Saratoga, aulani, old key west, animal kingdom if they do. I guarantee there's buyers remorse at the poly...

In fact...I bet dimes to dollars that their research thinks this would be likely.

DVC is very easy to walk away from...nobody "needs" it if thy feel they're getting screwed...they have to want it enough to be willing to pay. That is a huge difference.

You can't sell ferraris in fiat numbers.

To your point of having owners as registered guests: won't work. I can say that I am staying in the room when I'm not. Unless you physically make me show up to check in my renter that won't work and if they do put that policy in place, I'm local. I'll show up. Out of state owners will hire an agent by adding someone to their contract as an "owner". The $100 won't be paid by the owners, it will be passed on to the renters and since they just "saved" $2000, they'll pay it.

As far as buyer's remorse at the Poly, we have it except it's a huge money maker for me.

 

[dlavender]

I don't know that they necessarily want into the resale market.

I'm not sure if its on purpose (doubtful), but the fact that its basically the only timeshare you can actually resale keeps the original contract price higher.

It's anecdotal, but a former colleague of mine recently purchased DVC at WL. I asked him about his decision making process, and he noted this fact of resale as a major factor. He can use it for 10 years, and resell the remaining and come out at worst like he paid out of pocket for those 10 years worth of stays.

I'm not agreeing with his math or his decision making process, just an interesting note.

 

[Madonna3]

I don't know that they necessarily want into the resale market.

I'm not sure if its on purpose (doubtful), but the fact that its basically the only timeshare you can actually resale keeps the original contract price higher.

It's anecdotal, but a former colleague of mine recently purchased DVC at WL. I asked him about his decision making process, and he noted this fact of resale as a major factor. He can use it for 10 years, and resell the remaining and come out at worst like he paid out of pocket for those 10 years worth of stays.

I'm not agreeing with his math or his decision making process, just an interesting note.

really?

 

[Roxyfire]

It's anecdotal, but a former colleague of mine recently purchased DVC at WL. I asked him about his decision making process, and he noted this fact of resale as a major factor. He can use it for 10 years, and resell the remaining and come out at worst like he paid out of pocket for those 10 years worth of stays.

I can certainly see resale if you aren't worried about the benefit card. Or if you want to add points. But napkin math shows me about the same rate I'm paying for a discounted, construction drive cash rate. It seems very six of one, half a dozen of the other.

 

[dlavender]

really?

I can certainly see resale if you aren't worried about the benefit card. Or if you want to add points. But napkin math shows me about the same rate I'm paying for a discounted, construction drive cash rate. It seems very six of one, half a dozen of the other.

Certainly wouldn't be the first irrational justification used to make a time share purchase.....

I did ask him why not just buy from the resale market in the first place.

There was a long pause.....before a terrible answer.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

To your point of having owners as registered guests: won't work. I can say that I am staying in the room when I'm not. Unless you physically make me show up to check in my renter that won't work and if they do put that policy in place, I'm local. I'll show up. Out of state owners will hire an agent by adding someone to their contract as an "owner". The $100 won't be paid by the owners, it will be passed on to the renters and since they just "saved" $2000, they'll pay it.

As far as buyer's remorse at the Poly, we have it except it's a huge money maker for me.

If it's a money maker for you...then that's why they'll get after you eventually.

Contrary to what disney says...it is not a "real estate interest"...it's a ticket to the giftshops.

Till now, the rental market has been "tolerated" because it has lead to more contract sales.

If the rental market increases or sales slow...they'll march looking for blood like an army in game of thrones.

And how would they know if you headfaked them and put your name on something but didn't actually stay there?

...hmmm

...let's think about that one, shall we?

 

[Madonna3]

If it's a money maker for you...then that's why they'll get after you eventually.

Contrary to what disney says...it is not a "real estate interest"...it's a ticket to the giftshops.

Till now, the rental market has been "tolerated" because it has lead to more contract sales.

If the rental market increases or sales slow...they'll march looking for blood like an army in game of thrones.

And how would they know if you headfaked them and put your name on something but didn't actually stay there?

...hmmm

...let's think about that one, shall we?

That's why I said I am amazed I have gotten away with it this long especially because DVC sales have slowed and the rental market is BOOMING.

What you're saying is find a way to make the owners pay for renting out their points and I am telling you unless it's a significant fee to negate the cost of renting vs booking direct it won't work.