Princess Olivia said:
Crash.........I bet you would be good at making up word problems for math. Percentages were always a killer for me (except for 20% and 50%). Here's something I bet you could answer. After watching Dateline the other night
my aunt had some reservations about allowing her teenage daughter to cruise (they reported the number of assaults on cruise ships, especially teens and teen club stuff). I quickly did some math for her about how many people cruise a week and how only something like 168 incidences have been reported. It's hard to explain to someone who has never cruised how the
Disney cruise is different from other cruises (like how over half the ship is in bed by 10:00). How many people do you estimate cruise a year (all cruise lines included)?
If we don't do the dolphin excursion in St Maarten we will be at a beach for sure!
Princess....
Here is one of the first things I dug up... it involves no math on my part but just reading it should help somewhat. NOW... bear in mind that this discussion is from the industry. It's sort of like hearing the tobacco industry claim cigarettes don't hurt or kill people because they might claim the disporportionally qualitative improvemement in happiness from the nicotine off sets death and any potential pain that might be experienced in brief near the end?! (sic)
Or - so it is like putting the fox in charge of chicken coop security... ya get it?
International Council of Cruise Lines (ICCL) said:
ARLINGTON, Va. (March 4, 2006) The International Council of Cruise Lines (ICCL) today released information regarding crime on board cruise ships prior to a hearing before the House Subcommittee on National Security, Emerging Threats and International Relations.
The industry data, based on 15 cruise lines submissions, totaled 206 complaints from passengers and crew during a three-year timeframe (2003-2005) when more than 31 million people sailed on cruise ships. There were 178 complaints of sexual assault, four robberies and 24 missing persons during the three-year period.
The cruise industry retained nationally-renowned criminologist Professor James Fox, Ph.D., as an independent expert to review the data provided to Congress. Professor Fox is the Lipman Family Professor of Criminal Justice at Northeastern University, visiting fellow with the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics and author of 16 books.
While virtually no place - on land or sea - is totally free of risk, the number of reported incidents of serious crime from cruise lines is extremely low, no matter what benchmark or standard is used, said Fox.
Cruising is one of the safest vacations available (I believe that) with an outstanding record that demonstrates the industrys commitment to safety and security, said Michael Crye, president of the ICCL. The cruise lines cooperated with Congress in gathering these statistics to further demonstrate that cruising is an exceptionally safe vacation.
Crye further explained, Certainly, these are not just numbers; they represent people that have gone through personal tragedies. We do not intend to minimize or brush aside their grievances nor shirk responsibility. The cruise industry is constantly reviewing its practices and procedures to make sure incidents, no matter how rare, are handled responsibly and with compassion.
Cruise lines operate within a legal framework under which international, federal and state authorities investigate crimes on board cruise ships. (This is BS IMHO - they have little interest in really resolving or prosecuting crimes - as I think they just fire the suspected employee and cut their losses right there!) All allegations of crimes involving U.S. citizens are reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and alleged crimes against Americans can be investigated and prosecuted under U.S. federal statutes even if they arise on cruise ships outside of U.S. waters.
ICCL member cruise lines maintain a strict zero-tolerance policy for crime that was adopted in 1999. In the event of an incident, the cruise industry takes all allegations and incidents seriously, reports them to the proper authorities and fully cooperates in any investigation. In many instances, cruise lines do not publicly disclose detailed information to comply with directions from law enforcement and out of respect for the families involved.
Hope this was what you were looking for Princess.....
And just because you have me hunting around for statistics and numbers - here is a link to an article from
National Geographic discussing post 9-11 Terror threats and Infectious disease out breaks on cruise ships.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/12/1211_021211_travcruise.html
And here is another stat on total numbers for the industry. This cannot be referenced in conjunction with the stats from only 15 cruise lines. AND I read that robbery is being counted as instances where $5,000 or more was reported as stolen. HECK! $5,000 is quite abit and that alone would mak the total numbers seem small. I think if we had numbers for reported theft of $1000 or more this would be more reasdonable. I think my spouse and I barely bring aboard $5,000 in total of tangible goods.
http://www.iccl.org/pressroom/pressrelease.cfm?whichrel=97
Anyway, here is the quote from an impartial source on numbers - but NO CRIME numbers.... :
William_Ebersold said:
by William Ebersold, Director Office of Statistical and Economic Analysis, Maritime Administration, US Department of Transportation..... As of 1 January 2004, there were 339 active ocean-going cruise vessels operated by cruise lines around the world. This global fleet amounted to a total of 10.9 million gross tons, with 296,000 lower berths. One-third of the global fleet had a lower-berth capacity of less then 500 passengers. These smallwer vessels had an average size of 224 passengers and an average age of 22 years, but only accounted for onlyh 12% of the global lower berth capacity. Of the 339 cruise ships in the global fleet, 141 (7.6 million gross tons), with 193,000 lower berths (65% of the total), served the US at some time during 2003.
....CLIA reported 9.5 million passengers carried world wide in 2003 with an estimated 10.6 million world wide in 2004.... (and).... reported 8.3 million passsengers carried on 3,840 North American cruises in 2003.... the number of passenger days .... (were)... 52.9 million in 2003.
This fascinating discussion can be found at :
http://www.touchbriefings.com/pdf/858/ebersold.pdf
SO.... my simple minded thumbnial estimates based on "INDUSTRY COOKED NUMBERS" says that the odds of being
sexually assaulted (and reporting it and having it recorded as such) is
1 in 174,157. And the odds of disappearing" and being reported as missing are 1 in 1,291,666.
You can compare that against the NATIONAL stats that say
the number of sexual assaults in the USA from 2003-2004 were 204,370!!!! And that is with the rate of sexual assault having FALLEN by 64% since 1993! Frankly, this is disgusting and quite astonishing - but I can believe it as I know several people who have spoken of being sexually assaulted. I suspect some of this data is "extrapolated" as opposed to "reported" since the page cites that 58% of sexual assult is claimed as unreported. AND I CAN BELIEVE that it goes unreported as all the victims I know of did not report it. 10% of sexual assault victims are men (who would have figured?). My statistics were drawn from this web page:
http://www.rainn.org/statistics/index.html
So
the odds of sexual assault as a female in the USA is 1 in 788 (derrived by taking 204,000 x 0.90 [female assult victimes] divided into the total female population of roughly 145,000,000). And the odds of being sexually assaulted as a male in the USA is 1 in 7,500 derrived by taking 153,000,000 divided into 204,000 x 0.10). These are really SIMPLISTIC INTERPRETATIONS on my part using dissimilar sources. I imagine they could be way off
or they might actually give constructive insight! Either way - I would say the cruise figures are WAY TOO LOW for me to believe them... except the environment is very unusual and controlled on a cruise ship. SO I tend to believe it is far safer on a ship as it is very hard to hide if one commits a crime. The routine is so structured and regimented it is really hard to be a criminal IMHO on a cruise ship. It's not like a bad person is gonna make a get away on a speed boat after they swipe something or do a bad thing!
Many folks we have met overseas (Europe in particular)
have commented on how they look on us as having extreme violence and crime in our country. Of course, I don't usually point out that we do well compared to the 20th century history of 92,000,000 deaths due to communisim or the estimated 11,700,000 deaths due to AIDs from 1981 - 1998. Of course, this same source cites some sobering homicide stats for the USA versus the world. We show that 12.5% of global homicides occur in the USA with 1,056,296 being accounted for from 1900 - 1996. This source does not have strong credentials - but it was interesting....
http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/warstat8.htm
http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/warstat8.htm#Murders
My population stats were drawn from the CIA world fact book for 2003-4 at this web site:
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html#People
And finally... did you know the odds of being a fatal stat in a transportation accident as a pedestrian was 1 in 47,273? So the odds of dying on foot from a vehicular accident is 3 times as likely as being sexually assaulted on a cruise ship?! OR in theory it can be said that it is 59 times more likely a female will be sexually assaulted in the USA than hit and killed by a vehicle in the USA in any given year... or rather in this case the stats were drawn from 2002.
http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm
Hope this was what you were looking for Princess.....
