GRAND OPENING - GRAND CLOSING (Florida)

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Still doesn't make much sense. If people were on vacation over Memorial Day -- are they still there, almost two months later?

At least in my comment I was referring directly to this from the information the poster had pasted in from the CDC director:

"Redfield pointed to a spike in coronavirus cases around June 12-16. “It all simultaneously kind of popped,” he said. Redfield said this surge was independent of when states reopened to varying degrees across the region, “so we're of the view that there was something else that was the driver," he said. The CDC director said the potential spike could have been from travel during the Memorial Day weekend. “A lot of Northerners decided to go south for vacations. The Southern groups had never really taken the mitigation steps that seriously, because they really didn't have an outbreak," he said."

That's why I was mentioning when FL was added to NY's list as just an example of one place from the North. It was June 24th so up until then travel was more freely allowed between FL and NY. Not only that but even though it's 3 weeks since that quarantine requirement for NYers which would make travel less desirable with an up to 2 week incubation period and lag in any testing. It could have been spread down there and continued to spread.

I guess I'm saying it's at least possible to be an interplaying role not simply they reopened and boom there's ya reason as most of the news focuses on reopening plans heavily.

 

[onatrek]

True. I might be out of touch with rest of America, but I generally don’t view states such as AZ and TX to be vacation magnets typically.

I'm in AZ (and from CA originally).

Yes, we're not a traditional "vacation magnet" but...

We have never really had much shut down. There were a couple of weeks more things were, but never as much as most places, and definitely never as much as CA.
And we've never had a true mask requirement. Maricopa County finally issued one a few weeks ago, but it's basically not enforced, the governor pretty much doesn't want there to be one, and so many don't abide by it.

The result of all of the above, especially prior to when we started our string of 110+ days recently, meant we were flooded with Californians, especially, who were coming here for our warmer (but again, until recently, not overly hot, weather) and far, far fewer restrictions than they had in CA.

Heck, there's one salon in the East Valley that pretty much has had "influencers" driving and flying in non-stop for months now from CA, in particular, though other states, as well. Nearly her entire business seems to be based on CA SM influencers.

Plus, until about 6 weeks ago, we also seemingly had far, far fewer cases of Covid than other states - notably, again, CA (though that was really due to lack of testing...we were last in the US for months on end) which was another draw.

So while we're not a prime spot like other states, we have had a steady stream of out of state traffic, and a heck of a lot of it from the formerly much worse off Covid wise, CA.

 

[dvcgirl67]

We are only beginning to find out the damage this disease can do. https://www.newsweek.com/scans-reveal-heart-damage-over-half-covid-19-patients-study-1517293

This is why DH and I are doing our best to avoid this disease. It's not simply a "disease of the lungs" as we thought early on. This is a cardiovascular disease that they're still trying to understand. When I heard of the autopsies of patients with multiple organs filled with blood clots....well, that's terrifying stuff. Nope, it's not the flu, it's not SARS...it's truly a terrible disease if you get a bad course. No thanks. I'll hang out and post with you guys for the next six months or so.

 

[penn19]

I don't think that could possibly be true. People tend to go North for summer vacation, not South.

People don’t go to Florida in the summer from up North?!

 

[dvcgirl67]

People don’t go to Florida in the summer from up North?!

Well, I'm sure some people do, but *typically*, we don't, not as much as we did 20-30 years ago. We travel to Florida in the fall and winter. In the summer, people from where I live go to Cape Cod, Maine, places like that in New England....and to Europe. But I will say that I live in an area of NJ where incomes are pretty high. My town is about 5 miles from the beach, but the closer you get to the beach, the home prices and median incomes get into the statosphere. I do know a bunch of families who rent out beach houses in NC and SC....usually a huge family share kind of deal. Even the friends that I have who own really nice second homes in Florida never go during the summer.

 

[dvcgirl67]

People don’t go to Florida in the summer from up North?!

Also, I should say, that DH and I lived in Orlando for 3 years, from 2004-2007. People in Florida don't even use their pools in the summer...it's too hot! I remember being so surprised at how quiet it was in summer in our neighborhood. No kids outside, no splashing in pools. Because everyone goes inside. I'm in NJ and have been out in areas outside with a lot of people on the sidewalk, and so we pulled our masks up. And I honestly don't know how anyone is doing that for hours on end in Disney World right now. I can't imagine it.

 

[kymom99]

Many many people from my area go south to the beach in the summer.

 

[Pyotr]

Also, I should say, that DH and I lived in Orlando for 3 years, from 2004-2007. People in Florida don't even use their pools in the summer...it's too hot! I remember being so surprised at how quiet it was in summer in our neighborhood. No kids outside, no splashing in pools. Because everyone goes inside. I'm in NJ and have been out in areas outside with a lot of people on the sidewalk, and so we pulled our masks up. And I honestly don't know how anyone is doing that for hours on end in Disney World right now. I can't imagine it.

I am originally from Wisconsin and we would travel to Florida mid June for our Disney trips. It is not uncommon for families to travel to Florida after school gets out.

I wish I had the answer as to why cases exploded mid June. Florida opened up early May. Was it Memorial Day? Was it the protests? Was it everyone staying inside because it’s so freaking hot out?

I‘m a high risk first responder. I’m shocked that I haven’t had it yet. I hope this wave passes.

 

[kdonnel]

Many many people from my area go south to the beach in the summer.

Especially this year since beaches are about the only place open for vacation.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Its also a little bit of a contradiction. First he says it wasn't from reopening but then says it was probably related to memorial day holiday.

Well if everywhere was shutdown people would have been less likely to go anywhere for memorial day!

It's a total contradiction. Why did people go places for Memorial day? Because they were open. Would they have gone to someplace closed? Of course not.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Many many people from my area go south to the beach in the summer.

Granted, different parts of the country vacation in different ways. However, I think we can all agree, if we'd had a national plan, where we all had the same rules/restrictions, for the same period of time.....we would look a heck of a lot more like Europe now, than what we look like now.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

My stepmother's family lives about an hour or so away from Orlando along the coast. We would go down there in summer usually for several weeks at a time. My stepmother's brother lives in PA and they would also come down. Family down there had a screened in pool area and we used the heck out of it as kids.

This year just might be a tad different in how we vacation as options are more limited but that's my experience growing up.

 

[cakebaker]

I wish I had the answer as to why cases exploded mid June.

Universal and most other theme parks opened in early June. It times perfectly with this spike.

 

[Pyotr]

Universal and most other theme parks opened in early June. It times perfectly with this spike.

Nonsense. Barely anyone is going to the parks.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

Nonsense. Barely anyone is going to the parks.

That doesn't negate the fact that the timing is the same.

 

[RamblingMad]

Universal and most other theme parks opened in early June. It times perfectly with this spike.

Yep. But people like their vacations. It’s really about what district you live in.

 

[WickstarRunner]

That doesn't negate the fact that the timing is the same.

Correlation is not causation

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

Correlation is not causation

Since FL contract tracing isn't a thing, we'll never know.

 

[cakebaker]

Nonsense. Barely anyone is going to the parks.

Shows you how few it takes doesn’t it. but hardly any translates into thousands of people in the various venues that opened, with some of them requiring no masks at all. The timing is there, like it or not.

 

[cakebaker]

Correlation is not causation

It’s a nice catch in Fl. We can’t prove where the cases came from because they don’t trace. But the timing is the timing and a spike doesn’t just start on its own.

We don’t trace here either, but just a few weeks ago, we had a political rally with 5k in an indoor venue, no masks, no distancing. Up until that point we were under 100 cases a day and fairly steady, one of the safest states in the country. Today we hit almost 1k, on the quarantine list for New York. Our numbers have been slowly climbing for a week, 200, 300, 500, then boom, here we are. We ran no more tests yesterday than we have been. Can I prove the source? No. Would I be a fool not to see it? Yes