That's the golden ticket answer. I can stand at the top of my home and yell about what my house can sell for but if my neighbor home is selling under mine the market will drive it.
Agree. I suppose it would be nice if there were a general understanding from renters that a specific price should be the price -- then again antitrust laws are basically premised on the notion that that kind of understanding is anticompetitive. So long as the numbers don't start making a cash reservation more or equally attractive, it woud be nice if everyone could stick to it. But of course, everybody can't. At the end of the day, even getting $1 for a point that would otherwise expire is worth it. And while I suppose many members would rather let the points expire on principle in that situation, not all would -- and as a person looking to buy someone else's points, that's all you need. A renter doesn't need 10 vacations, just one -- so all he or she needs is one person willing to rent them for $7/point or whatever.
There are lots things happening right now, I believe, to reduce the value of points on the rental market. First, of course is the economy. Second, disney is offering great incentives and resales seem to be getting through ROFR at decent prices. Renting 200 points for $12 may not seem so great when you can put that $2400 toward a contract at $75/per point. Third, the relationship between disney and RCI is a bit disappointing. Renters now have to compete with the exchange companies, which seem to be happy to sell or exchange unused DVC rooms for less than cash reservations. Fourth are developer points offered as incentives. They are being rented so cheaply right now, that they seem to be setting a floor for other points (except BLT) even at resorts where developer points can't be used.
Last is free dining. In some senses, free dining is a marketing trick, for those who otherwise would not have purchased it. It's a way to get them to pay rack for a relatively low overhead item. But for those who would purchase the dining plan if it weren't free, it's a very large discount -- it's a savings of over $100 per night for a family of four. It's not easy for
DVC rentals to compete with that. A 1 BR at VWL for late July has a cash price of about $3450 for the week, including the tax and fees. To compete with that for a renter who will have to pay $710 or so for dining, a DVC owner needs to come in lower than $2700, which is $10 per point -- and substantially lower if you have a saavy renter who values daily maid service. Or you need to find a weekday renter or someone willing to take less than a full week to avoid the premium Friday and Saturday points costs.
I think it's cyclical. When things are going great and disney is not having to offer big promotions and is raising the prices of rack rates each year, DVC points will continue to be a bargain even at $11 or $12 or maybe higher. For right now, that's just not the case. There is no inherent value to a point. It's just worth what someone is willing to pay for it. It's no different from the massive number of timeshare rentals you can find right now at great places -- Hawaii and the like -- for sometimes a fraction of maintenance fees.