GFV/VGF Rumors

[Simba's Mom]

Am I the only one who'd be LESS likely to have a desire to stay at GFV if this were true? Our idea of vacation is casual-we'll never eat at V&A because you have to dress up, we have no desire to stay concierge and get turn-down service, I guess I just don't anything called "premier"-it sounds too fancified. Give me feet up on my balcony at OKW anytime!

 

[intertile]

Can't do that unless DVD plans to add "classic" points into a separate system with GFV. Has to be reciprocity. Otherwise, DVC would be guilty of allowing more points than sold at a classic resort to book there. Don't see how that would be legal.

DVD doesn't own all that many points in some of the sold out resorts to add to a separate system. If they did put their "classic" points into a separate system with GFV, they'd want to recover some $$ as a result - probably by sending GFV nights to CRO/DRC to rent out for cash. Plus someone (either GFV owners or DVD) would have to pay to administer a separate reservation system. I don't think this is a path DVD will choose.

The legality of it, would probably be a grey area that a Disney lawyer could skate around. You do bring up a point that I had not considered....That would in effect put the classic system out of balance with points, and thus make existing owners there unable to book resorts in some cases. I still believe there are ways they could manipulate the system, but probably more trouble than its worth.

 

[Dean]

This right here, in my humble opinion, is the key. Who's going to buy GFV at $175+ and accept that they can't trade into another resort until one is built? The system is simply not dynamic enough; at it's core it's really just 8 resorts with 3 on the periphery. There aren't enough properties, and isolating GFV would be exclusionary, which isn't a great sales mechanism. I think at best we'll see some great perks for initial buy-ins at GFV at an absurd prices. Maybe they'll change the booking window, or maybe they'll throw in park passes, or give everybody a free month of the deluxe dining plan. But they can't really isolate them as a new tier at this point, I simply don't see how they could.

I think they could do it by making soft commitments to a Poly and River Country project. The points they own would create a buffer to the old system.

Completely agree, great point about any new system making GFV seem exclusionary since there are no other resorts and people are all about immediate satisfaction.

There are ways they could turn this into a sales advantage if they so chose. A new system also gives them the opportunity to correct any flaws they see in the current system.

Dean - great points about potential perks and exclusive booking categories.
I would think that giving GFV owners additional perks without overhauling the system is the easiest way to differentiate GFV without pissing off the rest of DVC's general population.

While I think it's theoretically possible to add enough new perks and options to GF, or another new resort, to entice new and current owners, I see it as unlikely. Those type of perks cost money. The easiest and cheapest is to add a few and remove a few from current owners. There would not be any real risk of legal action or an uprising as long as they stay away from contractual areas, DVC members are pretty much lambs to slaughter as they've proven (as a group) time and again.

I hope DVD isn't drinking their own Kool Aid about the pricing of DVC resorts. I would think that overpricing GFV will cause sales to stagnate if they don't get a good momentum going. There are hundreds of "new" development communities around my area that have been selling as "new" since 2005. The raising of classic resort prices is just a gimmick to pave the way for GFV. Maybe DVD will surprise us all with the initial pricing.

As long as they can sell it, it really doesn't matter who buys. One way to manage limited inventory is by price. They can always offer incentives to lower the price without lowering the price if they need to.

They could separate GFV into a premier category...allow those purchasing there to book at "Classic" resorts with a point bonus. Like 1 GFV point can be used at an exchange rate of 2 in the classics, and the reverse could be done to "classic" points. All new resorts enter the new premier category. OR they could have GFV allowed to transfer in the "classic" system, but not the reverse. There are a large number of ways that they can separate the categories.

I don't necessarily disagree but I will point out that the only way they could do this is as a new timeshare system legally. It can be one that shares certain elements including management, MS and each side has potential access to the other. Emphasis on the potential because IF this were to happen those in the new system would be guaranteed to have a leg up. Here's one way how it might work. Members in the new system could book anything available at 7 months out in the old system and members in the old system would only be able to book up to the points traded from new to old AND after the new system members had gone first. They could also charge existing members for the ability to access the new system with an up front fee AND limit to qualified points only. Remember they already own a licensed timeshare exchange system in the BVTC.

 

[JasonDVC]

As someone who was looking forward to buying points at GFV, this thread has me depressed.

I did take notice when they referred to the current resorts as "Classic" which gave me pause.

I hope they release the info soon so at least I'll be out of my misery. LOL!

 

[intertile]

I don't necessarily disagree but I will point out that the only way they could do this is as a new timeshare system legally. It can be one that shares certain elements including management, MS and each side has potential access to the other. Emphasis on the potential because IF this were to happen those in the new system would be guaranteed to have a leg up. Here's one way how it might work. Members in the new system could book anything available at 7 months out in the old system and members in the old system would only be able to book up to the points traded from new to old AND after the new system members had gone first. They could also charge existing members for the ability to access the new system with an up front fee AND limit to qualified points only. Remember they already own a licensed timeshare exchange system in the BVTC.

Didn't Marriot did something like this to separate there vacation club members a few years ago...I remember they added the point system to there "week" system. It cost $2.5k, and effectively converted your week into points without a so called "home". From what I understood(I own at aruba, but did not opt for the "upgrade") your points got you a week at your home, but if you wanted to go elsewhere they would convert to 4-5 days depending on which resort you went to. They effectively "weighted" the points from the resorts based on demand. By raising the prices of the old resorts, DVC may be in the process of overhauling there system to a new approach, or starting a "new" system with the next resorts to be made.

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

How about they make the buy in prices low, i.e., $130/pt. but then make a studio in adventure season 30-50 points per night. They could then offer concierge, turn down service, free valet, and a breakfast voucher to anyone staying there.

I just put prices and points out there. I have no idea about the appropriate costs and number of points.

And no...I don't think $130/pt. a bargain.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

How about they make the buy in prices low, i.e., $130/pt. but then make a studio in adventure season 30-50 points per night. They could then offer concierge, turn down service, free valet, and a breakfast voucher to anyone staying there.

I just put prices and points out there. I have no idea about the appropriate costs and number of points.

And no...I don't think $130/pt. a bargain.

If you don't think $130/point is a bargain, boy are you going to be disappointed.

 

[Dean]

Didn't Marriot did something like this to separate there vacation club members a few years ago...I remember they added the point system to there "week" system. It cost $2.5k, and effectively converted your week into points without a so called "home". From what I understood(I own at aruba, but did not opt for the "upgrade") your points got you a week at your home, but if you wanted to go elsewhere they would convert to 4-5 days depending on which resort you went to. They effectively "weighted" the points from the resorts based on demand. By raising the prices of the old resorts, DVC may be in the process of overhauling there system to a new approach, or starting a "new" system with the next resorts to be made.

In a nutshell, here's what Marriott did June, 2010. They created a new Trust point system. At the time their system was only full week other than some limited 3/4 day options at specified resorts. They gave ALL existing owners the chance to get into an exchange system called Destination points. The fee was not unreasonable for those who owned a few weeks. I think it was $495 for a single week that was bought retail and an extra $100 for multiple weeks. The fee was higher if ANY of the converted weeks were resale, I'm thinking it was $1495 for one week and $1995 for multiple. In addition to potential access both to new trust resorts and current resorts by a points system, they eliminated the need to belong to II, exchange fees to other Marriott's, change/cancelation fees and the $75 lockoff fee where applicable. In addition, they tied in a new VIP system. There's a yearly club fee but it's cheaper than the savings of other previous costs mentioned above, at least for me and many others. For me personally it was a very good choice. I own 9 weeks, 8 of which were resale and 3 of which have lockoff's.

It's not a perfect system either and I could talk about negatives as well but it's worked well for me and fit in well to my situation. Since converting in 2010, I've had 2 big trips. One to HI for 3 weeks. Of those 3 weeks I was able to get OF on Kauai and OF on Maui using the points and using the wait list priority that the VIP offered. I also got an exchange for the 3rd week so I banked my Ko Olina week I was planning to use. This past Jan/Feb we were in Aruba 10 days, also a combination of an exchange for 7 days and 4 nights using points. There were a couple of shorter stays in PCB. This summer I'll use my 3 Grande Ocean weeks and also have 3 matching reservations using points. It's worked well for me, is cheaper than before, gives me more and better options that I didn't have and essentially converted my resale weeks to the same as developer status.

 

[WMorganS]

In a nutshell, here's what Marriott did June, 2010. They created a new Trust point system. At the time their system was only full week other than some limited 3/4 day options at specified resorts. They gave ALL existing owners the chance to get into an exchange system called Destination points. The fee was not unreasonable for those who owned a few weeks. I think it was $495 for a single week that was bought retail and an extra $100 for multiple weeks. The fee was higher if ANY of the converted weeks were resale, I'm thinking it was $1495 for one week and $1995 for multiple. In addition to potential access both to new trust resorts and current resorts by a points system, they eliminated the need to belong to II, exchange fees to other Marriott's, change/cancelation fees and the $75 lockoff fee where applicable. In addition, they tied in a new VIP system. There's a yearly club fee but it's cheaper than the savings of other previous costs mentioned above, at least for me and many others. For me personally it was a very good choice. I own 9 weeks, 8 of which were resale and 3 of which have lockoff's.

It's not a perfect system either and I could talk about negatives as well but it's worked well for me and fit in well to my situation. Since converting in 2010, I've had 2 big trips. One to HI for 3 weeks. Of those 3 weeks I was able to get OF on Kauai and OF on Maui using the points and using the wait list priority that the VIP offered. I also got an exchange for the 3rd week so I banked my Ko Olina week I was planning to use. This past Jan/Feb we were in Aruba 10 days, also a combination of an exchange for 7 days and 4 nights using points. There were a couple of shorter stays in PCB. This summer I'll use my 3 Grande Ocean weeks and also have 3 matching reservations using points. It's worked well for me, is cheaper than before, gives me more and better options that I didn't have and essentially converted my resale weeks to the same as developer status.

So are you thinking Disney could do something similar? I.e. create a "premier" system of some kind, and then levy an extra fee to join if you own ANY resale weeks?

 

[Dean]

So are you thinking Disney could do something similar? I.e. create a "premier" system of some kind, and then levy an extra fee to join if you own ANY resale weeks?

They could, and maybe they should in some ways, but I doubt they'll do much along those lines. DVC/DVD has routinely exhibited feet of clay in such areas. So no, I don't think either a VIP or new system is likely but both are possible.

 

[intertile]

So are you thinking Disney could do something similar? I.e. create a "premier" system of some kind, and then levy an extra fee to join if you own ANY resale weeks?

anything is possible, but where Marriot and Disney differ greatly is Marriot almost never exercises ROFR, while Disney will. Marriot is also not (as far as I know) expanding there timeshare business any more at this time. They are more concerned with getting rid of whatever inventory they have left, or reclaimed since the economy tanked in 2009. From the way Dean described there new system, they found a way to integrate there resale customers for a small fee into there system. I don't think Disney needs to do that as much as Marriot did. In 2009 Marriot declared $500M in loses on the timeshare branch. Disney has no such problem, so I don't see them doing something just like that.

They could however do a premier system that will benefit retail customer, and not resale.

 

[disneynutz]

Looking at the existing system that Disney built, the loop holes, the ability to change the rules, policies, restrictions, room categories, and perks, they obviously know the laws much better than we do and they can do pretty much what they want. They have ways to work around issues legally. Remember Disney is a company who made their own cities to make their own laws and tax agencies. Did you know that they sell admission media from one Disney company to another for a tax break? They know how to work the system.

The big question is what makes them more money because that is their driving force. If a VIP, premier ownership program or fixed ownership weeks has business benefits, my guess is someday we will see it happen.

They also have a new challenge, competing at WDW with the new Four Seasons property that will probably attract deep pocket owners.

Another driving force are the two new executives, Ken Potrock has been named Senior Vice President and General Manager and another recent appointment (I can't find his name) to the new job title of VP Member Experiences and Club Management. If they want to keep their jobs, they will have to come up with something to increase revenue.

Bill

 

[dvc at last !]

All the speculation is interesting and anything possible.
We will soon see...

 

[SpaceMountain77]

I would really like to know Disney's projected demographic for Grand Floridian sales. With rates starting at $480 per night for an outer building garden view, I highly doubt that families that can afford to stay at the Grand Floridian are looking to save on future vacations through a timeshare ownership.

 

[Dean]

I would really like to know Disney's projected demographic for Grand Floridian sales. With rates starting at $480 per night for an outer building garden view, I highly doubt that families that can afford to stay at the Grand Floridian are looking to save on future vacations through a timeshare ownership.

IMO DVC is worthless if it doesn't offer any savings and for those that don't care about savings. DVC is targeted at those making generally in the range of $50-75K on the low end and $250-300K on the high end. Those that wouldn't worry about cost will get a suite or pay cash through Disney directly when they want it and those that can't afford it will generally not buy in (with exceptions we see her at times). Obviously these are guides and some on the low end will be in better shape than some on the high end but I'm sure you get the principle.

 

[Sammie]

I would really like to know Disney's projected demographic for Grand Floridian sales. With rates starting at $480 per night for an outer building garden view, I highly doubt that families that can afford to stay at the Grand Floridian are looking to save on future vacations through a timeshare ownership.

Grand Floridian repeat guests that have been booking two rooms because they have out grown the one room.

 

[WMorganS]

I would really like to know Disney's projected demographic for Grand Floridian sales. With rates starting at $480 per night for an outer building garden view, I highly doubt that families that can afford to stay at the Grand Floridian are looking to save on future vacations through a timeshare ownership.

No, GF guests buy timeshares too ;-)

Speaking from my own observations of my extended family, I assure you that staying at GF is often both a style choice and a dollar choice. I.e. plenty of people who live on a budget stay at GF, albeit a larger budget

For plenty of people, just like every other DVC resort, being able to save money at GF via a GFV contract will mean being able to stay longer, or visit at better times, or stay in a nicer room, etc.

 

[lilpooh108]

I don't necessarily disagree but I will point out that the only way they could do this is as a new timeshare system legally. It can be one that shares certain elements including management, MS and each side has potential access to the other. Emphasis on the potential because IF this were to happen those in the new system would be guaranteed to have a leg up. Here's one way how it might work. Members in the new system could book anything available at 7 months out in the old system and members in the old system would only be able to book up to the points traded from new to old AND after the new system members had gone first. They could also charge existing members for the ability to access the new system with an up front fee AND limit to qualified points only. Remember they already own a licensed timeshare exchange system in the BVTC.

In this scenario, and essentially in any scenario that includes a "new" system, wouldn't that mean that GFV owners cannot pool all of their DVC points (from GFV and non-GFV resorts) together to make one reservation? If that's true, then I think that's a huge disincentive for existing owners to buy in/add on. My brain hurts from thinking about this.

 

[Tamar]

Interesting thread. Subscribing.

 

[Dean]

In this scenario, and essentially in any scenario that includes a "new" system, wouldn't that mean that GFV owners cannot pool all of their DVC points (from GFV and non-GFV resorts) together to make one reservation? If that's true, then I think that's a huge disincentive for existing owners to buy in/add on. My brain hurts from thinking about this.

Maybe but not necessarily. I think it's possible they could pool their points and this could be one of the incentives. This is exactly the way the Marriott system has been working, that the crossover points are acting like actual trust points.