GF direct over Riviera direct is a no brainer

[RamblinWreck]

And the restrictions reduce the re-sale value of GFV (and all the other resorts) as they can't be used at RIV or future resorts.
And in a few years, those GFV re-sale values will be greatly affected, as there will be many resorts where they can't be used.

All DVC resorts, including RIV, currently have re-sale value of about 70% of direct pricing. That's pretty consistent. In fact, resale value of Riviera is actually a little better than several other DVC resorts.

https://www.*************.com/index.php/buying/direct-disney-prices

RIV resale value is 72% of direct
BLT is 63% of direct
AKL is 70% of direct
Polynesian is 68% of direct
Beach Club is 62% of direct
Aulani is 60% of direct

So, yes -- All resorts have re-sale restrictions. And they seem to affect the resorts evenly. Yes, Riviera is currently slightly more restricted than other resorts, but that isn't majorly impacting the resale values.

After 3 years on the market, there is absolutely no evidence of any major impairment of Riviera resale prices.

That figure is going to be a bit misleading, though.

RIV is in active sales. If it was sold out, Disney would jack up the direct cost like they have with other resorts. Would resale prices climb with it? What about when the resort has been open a little while longer and there are a lot more resale contracts on the market? It's hard to say. We won't actually know how much resale is affected by the restrictions until the resort sells out. But it is pretty encouraging that even though the resort is in active sales, people are willing to pay that much.

 

[Maria_Ohana]

Buying Riviera over GFV direct is a foolish decision. There are too many advantages in buying GFV over Riviera.
No resale restrictions which means that if you have to sell at some point GFV will probably be twice the value of Riviera.
GFV dues are about $1.30 per point less.
Rooms are comparable / almost identical.
Views are much better at GFV.
GFV is walking distance to a park and a valuable Monorail resort.
Dining options and Shopping options far overtake Riviera.
You can always use your Direct points to stay at Riviera if you want.

Can anyone come up with a reason to buy Riviera over GFV ? Please dont say its on the skyliner .

I have stayed at the Riviera and its nice . But Im not giving DVC any money to condone the ridiculous and unnecessary restrictions they have put on that resort. If they are successful with selling out that resort quickly then whats to stop them from doing this to every resort in the future. It just devalues the whole product to current owners.

I hope it takes them 20 years to sell that resort out !

We own at CCV and Riv, and have been thinking of adding VGF. That should solve our problems. lol

 

[SL6827]

That's why VGF1 got a refurb ahead of schedule...so that DVC could market bright, shiny new rooms in the original building.

Terrible. Not a single one or two bedroom in VGF-2 but they are marketing those rooms with VGF-2.

 

[havoc315]

That figure is going to be a bit misleading, though.

RIV is in active sales. If it was sold out, Disney would jack up the direct cost like they have with other resorts.

Not misleading at all. If sold out, and direct cost gets jacked up, then the re-sale price increases along with it.
That's basic economics.

Would resale prices climb with it? What about when the resort has been open a little while longer and there are a lot more resale contracts on the market?

But direct pricing is far more expensive. There are already plenty of re-sale contracts on the market.

It's hard to say. We won't actually know how much resale is affected by the restrictions until the resort sells out. But it is pretty encouraging that even though the resort is in active sales, people are willing to pay that much.

That's just it. People are already willing to pay $145 with the restrictions when they could get unrestricted for just $50 more.

I don't expect re-sale to move up dollar for dollar with increases in direct pricing. But as shown, most so-old resorts are at 60-65%. Aulani, which is NOT sold out, is only at 60%. So it's pretty safe to assume that Riviera will stay in that 60-70% ballpark. Could it drop to 59%? Sure.... It could also hold stead at 72%.
But I feel safe in saying it won't plummet below 50% (unless all DVC's plummet below 50%).

 

[scoobdoo]

I love this debate.. At the end, we left WDW with 400 RIV points, saw the error in our ways....... called our guide and said we needed 500 points.

I love this story! Long live RIV, the best resort in WDW by a wide margin!

 

[scoobdoo]

Now for a Skyliner expansion announcement at D23 in September

OMG can you imagine?!

 

[RamblinWreck]

Not misleading at all. If sold out, and direct cost gets jacked up, then the re-sale price increases along with it.
That's basic economics.

I'm not sure it's that simple.

We aren't seeing those kinds of movements with VGF, which just recently changed from sold out to being in active sales. Or with some of these other resorts which are starting to get ROFR'd at much higher levels than they were previously.

Some movement, yes. But not proportional. There is a lot more that goes into what someone is willing to pay for a Riviera resale contract than just the price of a Riviera direct contract.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I love this story! Long live RIV, the best resort in WDW by a wide margin!


OMG can you imagine?!

Can you imagine how excited you would be having already bought into SSR or AKV and finding out those resorts were going to be skyliner additions?

 

[NVDISFamily]

Can you imagine how excited you would be having already bought into SSR or AKV and finding out those resorts were going to be skyliner additions?

If they take Skyliner to AK park and AKV from the current network the. I’d be even more happy with my Riviera purchase.

 

[havoc315]

I'm not sure it's that simple.

We aren't seeing those kinds of movements with VGF, which just recently changed from sold out to being in active sales. Or with some of these other resorts which are starting to get ROFR'd at much higher levels than they were previously.

Some movement, yes. But not proportional. There is a lot more that goes into what someone is willing to pay for a Riviera resale contract than just the price of a Riviera direct contract.

As I said, I'm not claiming that the movement will be totally proportional. But it will be directional.
Re-sale pricing will be based on supply and demand. There will always be a direct supply -- Even for sold out resorts, outside of the Grand Californian, Disney will always still sell you direct points. The higher that direct price, the more people will pay for re-sale..
Let's imagine direct pricing was $200 and someone tried to list their re-sale at $199. No rational person is going to pay $199 for re-sale and accept all the restrictions for just $1.
Now, imagine the only way to purchase direct is $400 per point. A buyer wants Riviera but doesn't want to spend $400.... that $199 suddenly looks like a good deal.

Again, I'm not saying movement will be totally directly proportional. I am saying we are already seeing re-sale value at over 70%. Most DVC resorts are in the 60-65% range. There is no reason to believe that when RIviera sells out, it is suddenly going to drop to a 40% range.
The evidence suggests similar behavior to the other resorts.

 

[RamblinWreck]

As I said, I'm not claiming that the movement will be totally proportional. But it will be directional.
Re-sale pricing will be based on supply and demand. There will always be a direct supply -- Even for sold out resorts, outside of the Grand Californian, Disney will always still sell you direct points. The higher that direct price, the more people will pay for re-sale..
Let's imagine direct pricing was $200 and someone tried to list their re-sale at $199. No rational person is going to pay $199 for re-sale and accept all the restrictions for just $1.
Now, imagine the only way to purchase direct is $400 per point. A buyer wants Riviera but doesn't want to spend $400.... that $199 suddenly looks like a good deal.

Again, I'm not saying movement will be totally directly proportional. I am saying we are already seeing re-sale value at over 70%. Most DVC resorts are in the 60-65% range. There is no reason to believe that when RIviera sells out, it is suddenly going to drop to a 40% range.
The evidence suggests similar behavior to the other resorts.

The evidence so far is encouraging for Riviera resale values. But it's definitely not a sure thing.

And the thing about supply and demand is that with Riviera being so new, the supply of resale Riviera contracts is low, while the supply of direct contracts is high. That will eventually flip.

Riviera also doesn't exist in a vacuum. People will factor in the cost of Riviera resale not only against Riviera direct, but also against the direct and resale prices of the other resorts on property.

The signs are encouraging so far, and since I own some Riviera points I do hope that resale prices stay somewhat competitive for Riviera compared to other resorts. I just don't think there's enough evidence yet to say it's something you can count on.

 

[RamblinWreck]

If they take Skyliner to AK park and AKV from the current network the. I’d be even more happy with my Riviera purchase.

Me too!

I can hardly convince my wife it's worth the trip to visit AK for more than half a day out of an 8 day trip currently. That would change fast if she didn't have to ride a bus there!

 

[havoc315]

The evidence so far is encouraging for Riviera resale values. But it's definitely not a sure thing.

Nothing is a sure thing. A sink hole could open up next to GFV tomorrow, largely destroying the grounds, and making GFV worthless.
All we can do is talk about the most likely scenario based on historical evidence.

And the thing about supply and demand is that with Riviera being so new, the supply of resale Riviera contracts is low, while the supply of direct contracts is high. That will eventually flip.

But there will ALWAYS be a relationship between them in value. For any buyer, there will always be the option to buy more for unrestricted, or pay less for restricted.

I assume you hate restricted points. So, what's your favorite resort? Let's assume it is GFV, currently around $200 per point direct.
If I offered you RESTRICTED GFV points... at $150 per point, would you take it? You can ONLY stay in your favorite DVC resort, but the points are only $150? Okay... maybe that's not enough savings for you. $120? Maybe for you, it's $100? But I assume, even for you, it wouldn't be 0. Being limited solely to your favorite resort, would not be worthless.

And if people are willing to pay $200 for GFV to be their home resort, I'm confident plenty of people would pay $120 to $140 to be locked in to "only" GFV.

Riviera also doesn't exist in a vacuum. People will factor in the cost of Riviera resale not only against Riviera direct, but also against the direct and resale prices of the other resorts on property.

Which is why Riviera may actually do far better than most other resorts on resale!

Imagine, it's 2041.. just 19 years from now. I want to buy re-sale, I know I want to be in the Epcot/DHS area... Riviera may be the ONLY option!
On the other hand, if it's 2041, and I want to stay in the Magic Kingdom area, I have plenty of resorts I can buy. Why spend so much on GFV, when there is this massive supply of Poly and BLT points!

A LOT of factors go into re-sale pricing indeed. But they all gravitate to keeping re-sale pricing in the 60-70% range. You are fixated on a single factor -- the resale restrictions. You ignore the fact that non-Riviera resorts are also impacted by these restrictions (they don't get to stay at Riviera or other resorts). You ignore all the other factors that go into buying resale (wanting to buy into a specific resort, wanting to buy into a particular WDW location).

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if re-sale pricing on Riviera in 2041 is higher than GFV. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a little lower. But I'd be SHOCKED, if it wasn't in the same ballpark as the other resorts relative to their direct pricing.

The signs are encouraging so far, and since I own some Riviera points I do hope that resale prices stay somewhat competitive for Riviera compared to other resorts. I just don't think there's enough evidence yet to say it's something you can count on.

 

[Maria_Ohana]

We added Riviera knowing well the resale restrictions. Should we decide to sell whenever, I know that we will have recouped the money for our purchase. If any of our kids decide to keep it, then even better.

 

[TraderStitch]

I think two things we can all agree on are that VGF is a dump, and RIV is basically a Ramada.

... and the Polynesian owner as entered the chat. lol

 

[Sandisw]

I agree with OP. The restrictions will significantly impact resale value. Part of the robust resale prices are the value to ise points across resorts. Limiting to home resort only reduces its value. I fully expect resale on the new resorts to be very different than resale value on legacy resorts. Unless they start a DVC 2-- then that will equalize the value. The only other thing they can do is allow an exchange fee into the other dvc resorts. Otherwise people will be forced to deposit points into II or RCI -- whichever company dvc is with ( if they cannot get a reservation at their home resort). The only value in direct are the APs which i do think will return. I also wonder if dvc can strike a deal with ticketing to return the tickets sooner as that is a big selling point. If they disband aps all together we would most likely use our dvc resort as our base, but buy universal APs and go there for park days.
Back on track....I also hope it takes a long time to sell out RIV as dvc might rethink their restrictions. I think it would have been close to sold out by now if they did not have the restrictions in place. The resort itself is beautiful, but the skyliner can be close to an hour wait at park close.

Even if the pandemic had not happened, and RIV averaged around 100K a month...which would be considered a strong number, with 6 million points, it would take 5 years (60 months) to sell out. Its been on sale, including the time when sales were shut down for the pandemic, 40 months.

So, based on that, it should be about 66% sold, and its 44% sold. Now add in the pandemic, and all that has happened since, that reduction can certainly be just as much attributed to the pandemic as it can resale restriction.

I do not think DVD expected restrictions to have no impact on sales...they had to...and the fact that 40 months in they are still there, means they are not as disappointed in sales as some may think they are because they have the power to change them with the stroke of the pen.

In terms of Skyliner at end of night, we were there in summer last year, and we waited about 20 minutes to get on it...but to be fair, that was the only time we did it, In October, we waited about 15 minutes after the fireworks to head out of the park, and we didn't wait more than 15... But, I have also waited 40 minutes to get a bus at closing at HS back to BLT, so not sure the Skyliner is the only type of transportation that can take a while at the end of the night.

 

[Sandisw]

So DVC is marketing the 1 and 2 bedrooms heavily with the sale of VGF-2? That's wrong.

Why? Its all part of the same resort. IMO, that is the reason they had to incorporate it into the same association because it was a quick flip, to give them something to sell along with RIV, while they wait for the new Poly tower to come online, since Reflections...that had been projected to start sales in 2022...got scraped.

 

[Sandisw]

The impact of weather on the Skyliner is an oft-mentioned reason for people not liking Riviera, which is certainly understandable. My question is how often does it really go down because of the weather? 1% of operating hours? 5%? 10%?

Really curious, not looking for a drawn-out debate on the vicissitudes of the Skyliner.

I have stayed at RIV over 9 times already and we had the Skyliner go done once in all our trips...we weren't heading to the park at that time...we were hanging at the resort as we had just arrived and waiting on our room to be ready...so no impact on us.

I have been there every month of the year now, except September and November...

 

[Sandisw]

That figure is going to be a bit misleading, though.

RIV is in active sales. If it was sold out, Disney would jack up the direct cost like they have with other resorts. Would resale prices climb with it? What about when the resort has been open a little while longer and there are a lot more resale contracts on the market? It's hard to say. We won't actually know how much resale is affected by the restrictions until the resort sells out. But it is pretty encouraging that even though the resort is in active sales, people are willing to pay that much.

I agree and that is why I sometimes say that RIV is holding up fairly well so far...many of us...myself included...never expected anyone to buy at the prices they have bought...so, given the restrictions, I think people are buying it because they like the resort so much that they are okay having points to be used there...and I also think that most are probably owners who have other points for stays elsewhere, like I do.

 

[Royal Consort]

But there will ALWAYS be a relationship between them in value. For any buyer, there will always be the option to buy more for unrestricted, or pay less for restricted.

I assume you hate restricted points. So, what's your favorite resort? Let's assume it is GFV, currently around $200 per point direct.
If I offered you RESTRICTED GFV points... at $150 per point, would you take it? You can ONLY stay in your favorite DVC resort, but the points are only $150? Okay... maybe that's not enough savings for you. $120? Maybe for you, it's $100? But I assume, even for you, it wouldn't be 0. Being limited solely to your favorite resort, would not be worthless.

And if people are willing to pay $200 for GFV to be their home resort, I'm confident plenty of people would pay $120 to $140 to be locked in to "only" GFV.

%

Several resorts are also already 'self-restricted'. People pay a premium for BCV for instance. You'd better hope they're not using their points at SSR! I don't like the restrictions at all and want them gone. However, i don't believe it will be the catastrophe the boards make out. VGC, BCV, VGF, and BWV (even BLT) are already self-restricted by current buyers on resale. People *want* to own at these resorts. People aren't using their premium points at other resorts. The market is shifting and its already underway. 'This is the way'.