General Availablity Query

[snarlingcoyote]

So DH and I are considering using some of his overtime this fall (BIG HUGE project) to pay for a little DVC on the resale market.

The one thing that worries us is being lopped into one resort. We like BLT, WL and BC, but AKV is nice as is BW. We've decided we really like the second or third week of September, so that's when we'll go, except one year or two we might try for that sweet low spot at the beginning of December so we can see the Osborne lights and do a MVMCP.

If size matters, we'll probably usually do a studio; although, I wouldn't mind getting a one bedroom every now and again, even though we really don't need the extra space (it's just DH and myself). We like to stay 7 or 8 nights.

Am I correct in thinking that if we book at 6 or 7 months out, we shouldn't have too much of a hard time making reservations for varying resorts for September? What are things to think about with this before we take the leap?

 

[com_op_2000]

Sept is F&W time at EPCOT. So if you want to stay at BCV or BWV, then you need to have a reservation in at 11 months. These two resorts fill up fast during Sept - Oct.

 

[wdwfan1]

The best way to go is to buy where you wouldnt mind staying. Book there at 11 months and try to change at 7 months. If you were to buy at a resort you dont like thinking you will always be able to change at 7 months, you will probably be disappointed more than once.

 

[DebbieB]

So DH and I are considering using some of his overtime this fall (BIG HUGE project) to pay for a little DVC on the resale market.

The one thing that worries us is being lopped into one resort. We like BLT, WL and BC, but AKV is nice as is BW. We've decided we really like the second or third week of September, so that's when we'll go, except one year or two we might try for that sweet low spot at the beginning of December so we can see the Osborne lights and do a MVMCP.

If size matters, we'll probably usually do a studio; although, I wouldn't mind getting a one bedroom every now and again, even though we really don't need the extra space (it's just DH and myself). We like to stay 7 or 8 nights.

Am I correct in thinking that if we book at 6 or 7 months out, we shouldn't have too much of a hard time making reservations for varying resorts for September? What are things to think about with this before we take the leap?

You shouldn't have a problem with the 2nd or 3rd week of September. F & W starts around the last week (this year Sept 28). Early December can be an issue at 7 months.

 

[crisi]

Also, while BW and BLT have plenty of general availability for mid-September, you'd probably not be able to reserve standard views at either resort at seven months every time. Same with the value rooms at VAKL. So if those resorts are particularly appealing due to the standard view rooms, you might want a few more points.

 

[taaren]

Another strategy some try, is to pick your two favorite resorts, buy half the amount of points you need of each in separate contracts, then bank and borrow to get the 11 month advantage at each every other year. You could do it with three, but it would be more elaborate and complicated. (In your case it sounds like you'd like one Epcot resort and one MK resort perhaps?)

Eg.

2012 - Use Resort A's 2012 & borrowed 2013 points
Bank Resort B's 2012 points

2013 - Use Resort B's banked 2012 points + current 2013 points
Resort A (has no points)

Rinse and repeat.

 

[Deb & Bill]

You shouldn't have a problem with the 2nd or 3rd week of September. F & W starts around the last week (this year Sept 28). Early December can be an issue at 7 months.

For early Dec, you really want to book your home resort because the time is so popular with members. Points are low and the holiday decorations are up. Plus the Christmas party is going on.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

No, I don't think you'll have a difficult time booking for the 2ND or 3rd week of Sept at 6-7 weeks out. F&W starts at the end of Sept so no worries about that making it difficult. And since it sounds like you wouldn't normally book in the home resort priority it also won't matter where you own so your probably best off buying the least expensive resort - usually SSR.

The other thing in your favor is wanting 1 bedrooms which are often the last to fill.

 

[drusba]

Sep, except time at the very end of the month when Food & Wine starts, is the lowest DVC demand time of the year. This year during Sep at 7 months out, including for the second and third weeks, you could get anything anywhere except AKV concierge, BLT standard view and GVs at BWV. AKV value was open (rare almost any other time of year), as were BWV standard and boardwalk views, BLT MK and lake views, anything at BCV and VWL, and GVs everywhere except BWV. Moreover, contrary to former belief before you could check on-line for availability, the same applied to all the time around Labor Day and thus that holiday is also a slow DVC time.

Be aware the opposite is true for early Dec. which is actually the highest DVC demand time of the year and 7 months out little was available anywhere except for SSR and OKW.

 

[snarlingcoyote]

Whoops. Darn mouse.

 

[snarlingcoyote]

You shouldn't have a problem with the 2nd or 3rd week of September. F & W starts around the last week (this year Sept 28). Early December can be an issue at 7 months.

Definitely NOT doing F&W, at least not in the foreseeable future. We like having an almost empty park too much!

Also, while BW and BLT have plenty of general availability for mid-September, you'd probably not be able to reserve standard views at either resort at seven months every time. Same with the value rooms at VAKL. So if those resorts are particularly appealing due to the standard view rooms, you might want a few more points.

Ah-hah. That's good, I think DH would rather stay off-site than not be able to soak up maximum Disney magic. He'd begrudgingly stay in a standard room if he had to, but optimal is a room with a nice view, LOL.

Another strategy some try, is to pick your two favorite resorts, buy half the amount of points you need of each in separate contracts, then bank and borrow to get the 11 month advantage at each every other year. You could do it with three, but it would be more elaborate and complicated. (In your case it sounds like you'd like one Epcot resort and one MK resort perhaps?)

Eg.

2012 - Use Resort A's 2012 & borrowed 2013 points
Bank Resort B's 2012 points

2013 - Use Resort B's banked 2012 points + current 2013 points
Resort A (has no points)

Rinse and repeat.

Hmmm. That's a thought. The thing is, we only manage to make it to Disney about once every 2 years, due to our work schedules. (For example, no trip this year because we both have big work projects.) I'm going to have to look into how that would work on a longer rota and how long you can bank points, but that might be a good option! (And might get us to Disney more often than once every 2 years, which is not a bad thing at all.)

For early Dec, you really want to book your home resort because the time is so popular with members. Points are low and the holiday decorations are up. Plus the Christmas party is going on.

No, I don't think you'll have a difficult time booking for the 2ND or 3rd week of Sept at 6-7 weeks out. F&W starts at the end of Sept so no worries about that making it difficult. And since it sounds like you wouldn't normally book in the home resort priority it also won't matter where you own so your probably best off buying the least expensive resort - usually SSR.

The other thing in your favor is wanting 1 bedrooms which are often the last to fill.

I hadn't thought about that. We like the studio, but. . .yeah. The 1 bedrooms are really nice for napper/non-napper and the early riser vs night owl. (I, unfortunately, am predisposed to needing very little sleep.) If they tend to have more availablity, that is a thought! If we buy at SSR with enough points for a one bedroom at some of the more expensive resorts, it would come close to paying for itself, I would think. . .

Sep, except time at the very end of the month when Food & Wine starts, is the lowest DVC demand time of the year. This year during Sep at 7 months out, including for the second and third weeks, you could get anything anywhere except AKV concierge, BLT standard view and GVs at BWV. AKV value was open (rare almost any other time of year), as were BWV standard and boardwalk views, BLT MK and lake views, anything at BCV and VWL, and GVs everywhere except BWV. Moreover, contrary to former belief before you could check on-line for availability, the same applied to all the time around Labor Day and thus that holiday is also a slow DVC time.

Be aware the opposite is true for early Dec. which is actually the highest DVC demand time of the year and 7 months out little was available anywhere except for SSR and OKW.

Thank you for this, drusba! This helps. All the rooms I would want were open at 7 months. (Okay AKV concierge would be tres kewl, but not in a bucket list kind of way or anything.)

Also, I guess the slow part of December would be out except for our home resort, which would be okay, even if we bought SSR, because it's not likely to happen often, if ever - it's just a wish. (Bad part of the work year for me.)

Now I have to plug numbers in for all the various DVCs and their maintenance fees with what's posted on the DIS in terms of fair market value and figure out our best bang for the buck.

Thank you all!!!!

 

[zavandor]

Also, while BW and BLT have plenty of general availability for mid-September, you'd probably not be able to reserve standard views at either resort at seven months every time. Same with the value rooms at VAKL. So if those resorts are particularly appealing due to the standard view rooms, you might want a few more points.

I just checked for the first week of March and despite it being open for 4 days now, I could make a reservation for a Standard View Studio at BWV or a Value Studio at AKV, two of the most difficult booking categories to get at 7 months out. Also BC is open. AKV Club level instead is all booked (not surprisingly).
It's hard to get the most requested views for studios, but not impossible, above all in slow time for DVC, and September is one of those.
With your travel plan I would suggest SSR (also because you said that you wouldn't mind to stay there). You might get enough points to get a week in a studio every year, if you'll have to skip one year then next year you'll be able to book a 1 bedroom (it nearly twice the studio point cost)

 

[disneynutz]

Here are my thoughts.
September is hurricane season so plan accordingly.
DVC resorts are booked 80% to 98% all year long.
60 days prior to any given date, DVC rooms are given to Disney to rent out for cash.
Expect to spend more time at your resort and less time in the Parks as you become a seasoned owner.
Competition for some resorts increases as the ownership continues to increase.
Buy where you love to stay. Settling for a resort that you don't really care for doesn't make sense after paying so much money to purchase, thousands on dues and thousands on each vacation.

Bill

 

[crisi]

I just checked for the first week of March and despite it being open for 4 days now, I could make a reservation for a Standard View Studio at BWV or a Value Studio at AKV, two of the most difficult booking categories to get at 7 months out. Also BC is open. AKV Club level instead is all booked (not surprisingly).
It's hard to get the most requested views for studios, but not impossible, above all in slow time for DVC, and September is one of those.
With your travel plan I would suggest SSR (also because you said that you wouldn't mind to stay there). You might get enough points to get a week in a studio every year, if you'll have to skip one year then next year you'll be able to book a 1 bedroom (it nearly twice the studio point cost)

Cool! If the same is true next year, and the year after, and the year after that, every time for those weeks, I'd be shocked. A spot check on availability is not a very valid way to statistically measure availability, and I'd hope no one makes a purchasing decision over "the year I bought that was available at seven months."

 

[castleri]

Have been on the waitlist for one night in the end of September for about 3 months now with no luck. Of course that was at the 6 month mark and it is for BCV. Have backup at SSR for that night and since it is for the night before DS honeymoon cruise it really isn't a big issue since they won't be spending much time at the resort anyway and have to be on their way to the port the next morning. Will advise as others have that you should buy where you really want to stay so you can book at 11 months no matter when you plan to go. Have not had any luck with Sept-Oct waitlists the last three times I tried. Of course if the family would not make these decisions to go at the 6-7 month point there would be no need for waitlists.

 

[cseca]

I think the second best advice for buying DVC is: Buy where you love or at least where you don't mind staying at for the next x# of years.
(The first one is : consider resale )

Yes you most likely will be able to stay at one of the resorts you listed above but if Disney somehow change the rule would you be happy staying at your HR?

 

[zavandor]

This is my theory: every time a new resort opens, wherever it is, availability at 7 months should increase.
Every time a member uses his points elsewhere than his home resort (other resorts, RCI, a cruise...), points are not used at the 11 months priority window, so that means some more availability at 7 months.

Peak periods will always be a problem. For example since many bought BWV for the food and wine priority, it will always be problematic to book there in that period. But BWV owners will check other resorts over time, and more choices means that more people will use their points elsewhere, opening rooms at the 7 months above all in slow DVC periods.

Of course it's just my humble theory. And the system it's much more complicated than that. For example what will happens if DVC stops offering cruises for points? Less points used for cruise = more request for home resorts.
And more overall members means more competition at the 7 months mark, that might mean that we'll need to be online right at the 7 months opening to get a room.

I'm not saying to buy DVC in the cheapest resort to everyone, above all based on the speculations of someone who never stayed in a DVC resort yet
"Buy where you want to stay" is still the best strategy. But also "Buy the cheapest resort where you don't mind to stay and try to switch" can be a good idea, above all given the info the OP gave us.

 

[CarolMN]

This is my theory: every time a new resort opens, wherever it is, availability at 7 months should increase.

For the system as a whole, availability at 7 months should stay the same. But since not all resorts are the same size or equally "popular", ease of booking at 7 months does not stay the same for all resorts. Space at a resort is finite. For the smaller resorts, booking at 7 months becomes more difficult as membership increases - so more competition for the limited number of BCV studios, for example.

Every time a member uses his points elsewhere than his home resort (other resorts, RCI, a cruise...), points are not used at the 11 months priority window, so that means some more availability at 7 months.

That assumes MS waits until after the 7 month window opens to send rooms to CRO (to get cash to pay for the non-DVC option the member wants to pay for with points). I don't think they do. So for example, if a member uses points to cruise, availability for other DVC members does not increase. Availability for cash reservations made through CRO increases.

Those who cannot or will not book more than 7 months in advance might as well buy the least expensive resort. After 7 months, a point is a point is a point.

Otherwise, they should buy where they don't mind being "stuck" if they can't get what they really want at 7 months.

 

[crisi]

For the system as a whole, availability at 7 months should stay the same. But since not all resorts are the same size or equally "popular", ease of booking at 7 months does not stay the same for all resorts. Space at a resort is finite. For the smaller resorts, booking at 7 months becomes more difficult as membership increases - so more competition for the limited number of BCV studios, for example.

And there is an element of Disney Expansion Roulette at play. If DVC puts in 500 rooms at the Poly, that might take some pressure off BCV. If they put in 1500 rooms in Branson, Missouri that people buy for a low price hoping to book WDW at seven months, that would increase seven month pressure at BCV.

There is also Disney Event changes and Life changes at play. When we bought BWV, we went in mid-October - the week before F&W started, and BWV was easy to book. Before we took our first trip, F&W had been moved back and my "it will be easy to get a standard view room" plan had changed to "I'd better make a note on my calendar to call exactly eleven months out." Now we go in late August because our kids have grown and we can't pull them from school - that's still a pretty "dead" DVC time - but who knows what event Disney might slot in that space in the future.

30-50 years on a contract is a long time to be making projections on availability.

 

[Deb & Bill]

This is my theory: every time a new resort opens, wherever it is, availability at 7 months should increase.
Every time a member uses his points elsewhere than his home resort (other resorts, RCI, a cruise...), points are not used at the 11 months priority window, so that means some more availability at 7 months. ....

Your theory isn't that correct. Whenever a member trades out to RCI, someone from RCI gets to use that reservation, not a DVC member. It's a trade, remember?

When a member trades out to a non-DVC Disney reservation like the DCL or other Disney resorts, the inventory those points represent are given to Disney Reservation Center to sell for cash to pay for those non-DVC stays. So, again, nothing goes back to members to book for cash.

And when a new resort is opened, any unsold inventory is owned by the developer, not members, so it also goes to DRC to sell for cash.

But if a member uses their points at another DVC resort, yes, that would free up inventory at that member's home resort. And that is all open to any member at 7 months out.

One more problem, you're booking Dec 1-7, someone else is booking Nov 30 through Dec 6. They might book up exactly what you want at seven months out and you don't get to book it.