Gambling On Contemporary Dvc

[pinnocchiosdad]

I am in a state of conffusion trying to make a decission of whether to by this week before the current incentive program expires 2/18/2008

I must make a choise between AKV or SSR. I like both but neither is my 1st choise. I love BWV or the beach villas.

I am looking for your thoughts on my current plan which is: Not buy now and miss the current promotion which I am told is the best in a while, and wait to see if the top secret construction at the Contemporary is a new DVC. If it is it will be the only DVC with a monorail stop and the ability to walk from your room into the magic kingdom. It is also on a lake. Disney has sealed lips on the project. They are building now and I think they may offer presales within the next 2 years. What do you all think. I appreciate your opinions.

 

[Jimdvc]

I love BWV or the beach villas.

Buy a re-sale at the resorts you love.

By the time the CVR is done, you will be in the mood for an add on, trust me.

If by chance you aren't ready for an add on , and still want CRV, simply sell your BW or BCV. Those 2 resorts are always in demand, and will sell with ease of priced right. My guess is once you own them, you won't sell and will do a CRV add on if you still desire to own there.

 

[pinnocchiosdad]

I am totaly new to this, what is an addon?
JOE

 

[rsinj]

.

 

[tjkraz]

If by chance you aren't ready for an add on , and still want CRV, simply sell your BW or BCV. Those 2 resorts are always in demand, and will sell with ease of priced right. My guess is once you own them, you won't sell and will do a CRV add on if you still desire to own there.

Given the timeframes involved, I think that is a VERY risky approach.

Contemporary construction will be completed sometime in 2009. *IF* those units are DVC, they will almost certainly have 50-year contracts running thru 2059. That's 17 years longer than BWV and BCV.

Many (myself included) believe that as soon as CRV is announced, the bottom will fall out of the market for BCV and BWV. While those two resorts certainly have their own appeal, the single greatest factor driving their popularity appears to be proximity to the theme parks. Well, if CRV comes to pass, it will also have the benefit of close theme park proximity PLUS 19 more years of ownership.

In fact, resale prices for BWV and BCV have already taken a hit since AKV was announced. At one time they were approaching $100 per point.

In my opinion, someone who buys BWV or BCV today with the intention of selling in a couple of years when CRV is announced stands to lose as much as $10 per point. That's not even including the commission (typically 10-15%) paid to the broker on the sale.

 

[pinnocchiosdad]

You make good points, but I have heard that it can be quite difficult to gat a reservationat the beach villas inside the 7 month window. i would have a much bettr chance with 11 months as a home resort. yes I could buy resale at the beach but the current incentive is hard to pass. They are giving me $8
off per point ($1280) 160 2007points, 160 2008 points this year and a bonus 160 developer points (I have to use these by 11/08).

 

[DVC Mike]

In my opinion, someone who buys BWV or BCV today with the intention of selling in a couple of years when CRV is announced stands to lose as much as $10 per point. That's not even including the commission (typically 10-15%) paid to the broker on the sale.

IMHO, you should buy any timeshare (including DVC) with the intention of using it, as it's not an investment but a prepaid vacation. Most timeshares have a steep declining slope in terms of resale value. DVC has been an exception to the rule, due to it's high-demand location and Disney agressively exercising ROFR to keep resale prices high. But we won't know what will happen in the future.

 

[tjkraz]

A Contemporary resort may or may not happen. If it does happen, you are guaranteed that the price will be higher than whatever the current price is that you pay. You won't be able to buy/stay there for at least another 2 years, where you could be using your membership right now. Lastly, as with all DVC resorts, you will have plenty of opportunity to stay there no matter where your home resort is.

That tends to mesh with my own philosophy.

An add-on purchase is simply when you add additional points to your ownership. Once you are a DVC member, you can buy more points in bundles as small as 25 points.

If it's a case of "CRV or bust", then obviously I would suggest waiting. By owning at SSR or AKV, there will never be 100% success booking CRV (or any other resorts, for that matter.)

But if the goal is simply to stay at CRV every 3 or 4 trips, this can easily be accomplished with a small Contemporary add-on. Let's say that one purchased 50 points at CRV. If the 2009 points from that contract are banked into 2010, the owner would then have as many as 150 points available for use in 2010. That would include the '09 banked points, the '10 current year points and the '11 borrowed points. For that one planned CRV trip in 2010, the owner could call 11 months out and virtually guarantee a room.

The AKV / SSR points can then be used for other resort stays--some mixture of booking and staying at the Home resorts, and getting another property at 7 months.

 

[Jimdvc]

Many (myself included) believe that as soon as CRV is announced, the bottom will fall out of the market for BCV and BWV.

ROFR

As soon as the "bottom falls out" DVC sales from them direct will come to a halt. I am very very doubtful that the "bottom will fall out" at the 2 DVC's that are currently the most in demand from a % standpoint. We see post after post after post about people wanting to waitlist at these 2 resorts. They are the flag ships. They are where people if given a chance would stay the majority of the time. Yes I understand nothing is 100%, but simply read the post on this board. See where people want to stay. When CRV opens I do agree many will want to stay there. But it will still leave BWV and BCV very very much in demand. There is nothing in the world like a 10-12 min walk and an adult couple can be in the world show case. If you take the monorail to epcot, you are still 15 mins from the world show case. Adults love epcot and that will never change. To be close to epcot you stay at the BWV or the BCV. Period.



While the 17 years is great, I think you may over estimate it's value to many.

Now with all that being said, for a family with kids or grand kids the CVR being right beside MK will be an outstading resort. I'll be curious what the cost ofpoints are, and the # of points needed to stay there.

 

[rsinj]

.

 

[tjkraz]

You make good points, but I have heard that it can be quite difficult to gat a reservationat the beach villas inside the 7 month window. i would have a much bettr chance with 11 months as a home resort.

That's pretty much the decision all of us have had to make.

Buying BCV resale will cost you about the same as SSR or AKV, but you end up with an ownership duration that's 25-30% less plus higher annual dues.

If you are of the mindset that every trip where you cannot book a room at BWV or BCV will be a disappoointment, then you need to bite the bullet and buy your points at one of those two resorts. Reports of success booking those two resorts vary from member-to-member, but they are certainly not 100% unless you own there AND can book 11 months ahead of time.

 

[pinnocchiosdad]

$104 before the $8 discount, free maintenance on 2007, I will pay maintenance in 2008. Like I said, it will be a gamble to pass this up.

 

[disney dumbo]

Buy a re-sale at the resorts you love.

By the time the CVR is done, you will be in the mood for an add on, trust me.

If by chance you aren't ready for an add on , and still want CRV, simply sell your BW or BCV. Those 2 resorts are always in demand, and will sell with ease of priced right. My guess is once you own them, you won't sell and will do a CRV add on if you still desire to own there.

Agree!!!
Especially if you can decide on your travel plans in time to do an 11 month reservation!

 

[tjkraz]

ROFR

As soon as the "bottom falls out" DVC sales from them direct will come to a halt. I am very very doubtful that the "bottom will fall out" at the 2 DVC's that are currently the most in demand from a % standpoint. We see post after post after post about people wanting to waitlist at these 2 resorts. They are the flag ships. They are where people if given a chance would stay the majority of the time. Yes I understand nothing is 100%, but simply read the post on this board. See where people want to stay. When CRV opens I do agree many will want to stay there. But it will still leave BWV and BCV very very much in demand. There is nothing in the world like a 10-12 min walk and an adult couple can be in the world show case. If you take the monorail to epcot, you are still 15 mins from the world show case. Adults love epcot and that will never change. To be close to epcot you stay at the BWV or the BCV. Period.

Wanting to STAY at a resort and wanting to OWN at that resort are two very different things. I'm not an owner at BWV, but will be making my 4th trip there in a few weeks. But I would sooner buy points at AKV (a resort which is not particularly a favorite) before BWV.

Right now The Timeshare Store has listings for BCV as low as $85 per point. And that's not the only contract in the $80s. 18-24 months ago points there were consistently selling in the mid-to-upper $90s. There's a BWV listing for $79 per point.

The market for these two resorts has already taken a hit. If CRV is announced, demand for those contracts will go down further. That's not to say that the resorts will be any less popular among members. Sure, people will still want to stay there. But two things will happen from a sales standpoint:

1. Many current owners of BCV and BWV will opt to sell their ownership. Some will be selling to buy CRV points. Others will simply be trying to cash in before the value drops too far. But make no mistake--the supply of available contracts will increase.

2. Demand will drop dramatically. Again, if you can buy CRV and get the same close proximity to the theme parks PLUS 19 more years of ownership, why bother paying inflated prices for BWV or BCV? Some will still choose to do so, but not in as great of numbers. In the end, demand will definitely be lower.

Greater supply combined with lower demand results in lower prices.

ROFR will prop-up prices to some extent, but in order for DVC to exercise ROFR, you still have to receive an offer on the points. And offers will only go to the most attractive (i.e. lowest-priced) contracts on the market.

If someone were to buy BCV today at $92 per point with the intention of selling in 2-3 years when CRV is on sale, my guess is the best return they would get out of the contract is about $78 per point. My assumption is that the contract value will drop by about $5 per point (that's less than I said in my first post--I didn't realize how low they had already dropped). That takes you down to $87 per point. Then subtract 10% broker commission.

 

[TisBit]

To the OP, if you are looking at buying direct from DVC at AKV or SSR, but don't particularly care about having an 11 month booking advantage at either, SSR has a bigger incentive and lesser dues. Now, if you really don't like SSR, than go with AKV.

But, as others have said, if you have your heart set on wanting something "close" to the parks than resale is probably a good idea, at the resort you want. BWV and BCV can actually have problems booking even at 11 months if you want one of those coveted BW or Value rooms or F&W festival.

As far as CRV, if you don't mind paying more per point, plus more for MF's (with monorail service, MF's will have to be higher than other resorts, IMO) this might be an option for you. But even if they announce CRV, you won't be able to close on it or even get into the system until they begin releasing rooms, which will probably be end of 2009 or beginning of 2010. So there is definitely a waiting game there.

 

[La2kw]

You make good points, but I have heard that it can be quite difficult to gat a reservationat the beach villas inside the 7 month window. i would have a much bettr chance with 11 months as a home resort. yes I could buy resale at the beach but the current incentive is hard to pass. They are giving me $8
off per point ($1280) 160 2007points, 160 2008 points this year and a bonus 160 developer points (I have to use these by 11/08).

I don't own at BCV and have stayed there 3 times already. I have booked as close as 4 months out.

 

[CarolA]

1. Buying a timeshare and assuming you will NOT lose money on the resale is not smart REGARDLESS of the fact that "it's Disney" This is not an investment for your retirement plan (unless you plan to live in it when you retire)

2. Some of us own BCV or BWV because we like to stay there. So the "unrealisitic" prices of a few months ago or the "bottom dropping out" aren't big issues. (See #1.... ) I have absolutely NO desire to be on the Monorail or at the MK. (I actually can't tell you the last time I went to the MK. I hit Epcot every trip)

3. There were a lot of posters whining a few months ago that they felt "ripped off" because the first offer for AKV was not as good as later promos in thier view. YMMV. I bought AKV at first offer and was fine. Developer points didn't do much for me.

4. How old are you? If you are my age those extra years don't mean much.....If CRV was to go thru 2059 I would be 99 and visiting Disney.... probably not feasible LOL! (And the bottom would have dropped out sometime around the time I turned 80 so I would be stuck with the useless "asset" using the logic on here! LOL!)

 

[CarolAnnC]

I am in a state of conffusion trying to make a decission of whether to by this week before the current incentive program expires 2/18/2008

I must make a choise between AKV or SSR. I like both but neither is my 1st choise. I love BWV or the beach villas.

I am looking for your thoughts on my current planwhich is: Not buy now and miss the current promotion which I am told is the best in a while, and wait to see if the top secret construction at the Contemporary is a new DVC. If it is it will be the only DVC with a monorail stop and the ability to walk from your room into the magic kingdom. It is also on a lake. Disney has sealed lips on the project. They are building now and I think they may ofer presales within the next 2 years. What do you all think. Iappreciate your opinions.

I always feel it is best to buy where you want to stay. If you love BWV and BCV then that is where you will be happiest on your vacations.

I would not put off purchasing because of speculation that the Contemporary may offer DVC units in the future. If it does come to pass you can always add on points there in the future as was suggested above.

Resales are possible, if you do not need Disney financing. Good luck to you!

 

[Tink-n-Belle]

1. Many current owners of BCV and BWV will opt to sell their ownership. Some will be selling to buy CRV points. Others will simply be trying to cash in before the value drops too far. But make no mistake--the supply of available contracts will increase.


.

As an owner of the BWV I will not be selling my interest to buy into CRV. I will be buying add'l points at the CRV (maybe 100 or 120)but I will still keep my BWV points as it is a Fantastic Resort. By having points at both resorts, I will get the best of both worlds!!!

To the OP, please don't worry about the value of DVC dropping. The value of any timeshare is the value to you. Its a prepaid vacation!! It would be great if I sold today, I'd get my investment back, but that's not the reason I bought in. I bought in so that I could spend a week at the BWV or any other DVC in a 1bedroom for the next 37 years.

The CRV will be a great resort to buy into IMHO, but if you love staying at BWV and BCV than buy a smaller contract and then if and when the CRV becomes available buy another small contract and switch off every other year. (That's what makes DVC so great is that you can bank the points from one resort and use them the next year and borrow the points from the other resort to use this year or you could do a split stay which I plan on doing) The CRV and BWV and BCV all will have there pro's and con's so buy what you love.

And yes, they are having great deals, but how much are you really saving when you can't stay where you want to. I bought in 2.5 years ago and bought in at the BWV because that's what I wanted. This will be our 4th trip (in 4 days)to the BWV and I'm really excited to be going back!!!. Yes, some people have NO problem booking the BWV at 7 months and with more and more choices it may never become a problem, but at least I know that Next Feb I will be staying at the BWV guaranteed. And hopefully by 2010 I'll also be guaranteed a CRV Room too.

 

[tjkraz]

As an owner of the BWV I will not be selling my interest to buy into CRV. I will be buying add'l points at the CRV (maybe 100 or 120)but I will still keep my BWV points as it is a Fantastic Resort. By having points at both resorts, I will get the best of both worlds!!!

To the OP, please don't worry about the value of DVC dropping. The value of any timeshare is the value to you. Its a prepaid vacation!!

I'm sure you won't be selling but others will. You don't have to look hard to find posts from people who sold contracts to buy AKV. The same will be true of CRV...perhaps in greater numbers.

And just to clarify, the comments of mine that you quoted were a direct response to another poster who recommended buying BCV or BWV now and then selling to buy CRV in a couple of years.

I have absolutely no problem with someone buying either of those resorts now if they want that 11 month booking window and plan to keep the contract indefinitely. But I don't see any upside to buying one of those two resorts now with plans to sell in such a short time.

Even if one can sell for the same price at which they purchased, the commission alone on the sale will cost around $1500 on a 160-pt contract. And, as statd, I also happen to think that the value of those two resorts will be diminished by a CRV announcement.