Future resale value on restricted resorts?

[dvc lover 1970]

I almost purchased direct RIV quite a few times but resale restrictions always prevent me from pursing this. We have decided to purchase resale for the right price. The fact that resale can only be used at RIV concerns me for both direct and resale. I have been watching RIV resale prices and sales on both the resale sites and here in the rofr thread. There are a lot of RIV resales on the market, and small contracts that are not moving. I think dvc resale over the next ten years - as the 2042 resorts come closer to their expiration date - will not maintain their value as they had in the past.
Part of what has allowed for such a robust disney timeshare market was partly due to being able to book any dvc resort, even for those of us who mostly use points at home resorts, the abilty to change is nice. I have made many last minite trips where I book whatever is available. That option disappears with the new restrictions. Restricted points are a great value for owners who already own RIV as they can switch out restricted points for direct points. Unless dvc implements some sort of exchange fee for restricted points, resale will a be tough market, limited to those who only want a specific resort. One more consideration is point transfers or rentals. Restricted points might be have less value for transfers. Also rentals, those who have a few points left over and rent points in 7 month window may find there is nothing available to rent since points are restricted.

 

[Nursemanit]

I almost purchased direct RIV quite a few times but resale restrictions always prevent me from pursing this. We have decided to purchase resale for the right price. The fact that resale can only be used at RIV concerns me for both direct and resale. I have been watching RIV resale prices and sales on both the resale sites and here in the rofr thread. There are a lot of RIV resales on the market, and small contracts that are not moving. I think dvc resale over the next ten years - as the 2042 resorts come closer to their expiration date - will not maintain their value as they had in the past.
Part of what has allowed for such a robust disney timeshare market was partly due to being able to book any dvc resort, even for those of us who mostly use points at home resorts, the abilty to change is nice. I have made many last minite trips where I book whatever is available. That option disappears with the new restrictions. Restricted points are a great value for owners who already own RIV as they can switch out restricted points for direct points. Unless dvc implements some sort of exchange fee for restricted points, resale will a be tough market, limited to those who only want a specific resort. One more consideration is point transfers or rentals. Restricted points might be have less value for transfers. Also rentals, those who have a few points left over and rent points in 7 month window may find there is nothing available to rent since points are restricted.

Renting out RIV points is very hard - tons of competition - Best to only buy RR direct if you want to stay at RR or a site with good 7 month availability.

I would only get resale RiV if they have a SV preferred week come up and you wanted that week. That is like having 12 month booking. I think SV at RR will be super tight @ 11months once sold out

 

[Sandisw]

No question that the DVC product is changing into something it different And resale value may be one of them when more resorts have restrictions.

But I think once it’s more than just RIV, it’s possible they stabilize because it will be the norm,

And, at that point, it is possible an exchange fee will happen. But remember, the goal of restrictions is to sway people to buy direct because you can’t get the same thing buying resale les,

Whether the difference is worth it is subjective and everyone will see it differently.

If, in 2042, place like BWV and BCV come back new, with restrictions , they may indeed still hold some value because of where they are.

Most know that I don’t think anyone should consider resale value as anything but a bonus, so what happens over time should not be a big deal,

What is also possible is that people do end up owning more than one resort so they can stay different places…

The prices for RIV direct right now are still decent so that may be contributing to why contracts are not moving faster on the resale market. Makes much more sense to go direct right now.

 

[Spinster Travel]

The resale restrictions are problematic for a number of reasons especially given that RR is the only resort impacted currently. IF I was looking at RR, I'd go with Direct but thats because I personnally like the flexibility of resort choices and even if I LOVED RR, needs and preferences change and I just don't want to lock myself down to one option. For all these reasons (and some others) I've steered clear of RR, but MANY adore the resort and have zero regrets buying it direct or resale. Good luck!

 

[mkmcqu]

Renting out RIV points is very hard - tons of competition - Best to only buy RR direct if you want to stay at RR or a site with good 7 month availability.

I would only get resale RiV if they have a SV preferred week come up and you wanted that week. That is like having 12 month booking. I think SV at RR will be super tight @ 11months once sold out

I got a standard view preferred week at riviera for exactly this reason!! I also think Riviera popularity may shift once 2042 approaches and once the MK resorts become more and more saturated with the new poly tower. If they don’t extend the 2042s, Riviera may become the only Epcot/HS area DVC resort. Again … lot of “ifs” here. Ha!

 

[pianomanzano]

Renting out RIV points is very hard - tons of competition - Best to only buy RR direct if you want to stay at RR or a site with good 7 month availability.

I would only get resale RiV if they have a SV preferred week come up and you wanted that week. That is like having 12 month booking. I think SV at RR will be super tight @ 11months once sold out

In my experience renting RIV points out is incredibly easy if you have an existing reservation, which is my preferred way to rent out points in general because you can get top dollar and don’t spend a bunch of time looking up availability for people. Put up reservations for a standard studio and a tower studio on Facebook and had to pause commenting on the post because 20+ people reached out in the first hour of my post wanting to rent those reservations.

 

[Jlo85]

I tend to think Riviera resale is overpriced right now. You can tell from some recent low sell prices in the $110-$120 / per point range. Also, that Riviera is listed at similar prices to AKV, and clearly not selling at the same rate. If I were a betting man, I would think prices will settle near the Aulani range. Right now, the cheapest Aulani contracts are listed for $108/point. If you’re talking about almost 50% off direct on a nearly 50 year contract, it makes it a much more attractive deal.

Though, how/whether Disney will address customers being underwater on the Riviera contracts will be interesting.

 

[pianomanzano]

I tend to think Riviera resale is overpriced right now. You can tell from some recent low sell prices in the $110-$120 / per point range. Also, that Riviera is listed at similar prices to AKV, and clearly not selling at the same rate. If I were a betting man, I would think prices will settle near the Aulani range. Right now, the cheapest Aulani contracts are listed for $108/point. If you’re talking about almost 50% off direct on a nearly 50 year contract, it makes it a much more attractive deal.

Compared to current incentives RIV resale is definitely overpriced, especially for larger contracts. But it doesn’t make sense to compare selling rates if RIV and AKV when RIV is in active sales and is a new resort compared to AKV. There’s just not going to be a lot of RIV resale contracts out there. Currently, AKV has more than double the amount of RIV contracts on the resale market right now. I also think the price after RIV sells out will dictate what the resale value will be. I don’t think it would go down to the 100s if their sold price will be 225+, otherwise might see a lot of buybacks. But who knows, maybe after 7-10 years after RIV’s opening when members tend to sell their contract there may be so much RIV on the resale market that the prices may drop that low. I’ll happily scoop up more RIV resale up at the at rate!

 

[Sandisw]

I tend to think Riviera resale is overpriced right now. You can tell from some recent low sell prices in the $110-$120 / per point range. Also, that Riviera is listed at similar prices to AKV, and clearly not selling at the same rate. If I were a betting man, I would think prices will settle near the Aulani range. Right now, the cheapest Aulani contracts are listed for $108/point. If you’re talking about almost 50% off direct on a nearly 50 year contract, it makes it a much more attractive deal.

Though, how/whether Disney will address customers being underwater on the Riviera contracts will be interesting.

Typically, when a resort is in active sales, you see about a 30% reduction between resale and direct.

So current RIV prices..minus the few outliers ..is within that range..

Many of us predicted it would never sell as high as it has for a one resort product but iit is doing pretty well.

AKV is going as high as it is, IMO, because of ROFR being so heavy now and for the past year. I’d bey it would be closed to $115 to $120 if that wasn’t happening.

I agree with others that once we see it sold out, it will give us a more settled price.

In terms of upside down? Only those who financed could be in that position. M

But those of us who paid cash, would still get the bulk of our money back after having taken trips with it so right now, it’s not too bad.

 

[Jlo85]

Compared to current incentives RIV resale is definitely overpriced, especially for larger contracts. But it doesn’t make sense to compare selling rates if RIV and AKV when RIV is in active sales and is a new resort compared to AKV. There’s just not going to be a lot of RIV resale contracts out there. Currently, AKV has more than double the amount of RIV contracts on the resale market right now. I also think the price after RIV sells out will dictate what the resale value will be. I don’t think it would go down to the 100s if their sold price will be 225+, otherwise might see a lot of buybacks. But who knows, maybe after 7-10 years after RIV’s opening when members tend to sell their contract there may be so much RIV on the resale market that the prices may drop that low. I’ll happily scoop up more RIV resale up at the at rate!

That's fair enough and may be true, though my arguments against that would be:

1. Number of contracts on the market has a limited impact on the price point. Look at VGC. Fewer contracts on the market than RIV and they're still selling faster. Demand is demand. There just is limited demand for Riviera on the resale market.
2. Aulani is still for sale, and still getting 50% off direct prices. I tend to think Aulani and Riviera face similar obstacles, and will settle at similar prices. Hell, VGF is still selling, and look at the how much better it's doing in the resale market.

 

[Wakey]

Direct purchasers, who are now attempting to offload at a big loss, can’t say they were not warned.
There’s zero financial case for buying RIV over VGF direct. Zero. There may be a case to buy it if you love RIV so much you only want to stay there. That’s it.

 

[GoingSince1990]

One reason that I bought into DVC when I would not go near a traditional timeshare is the ease of resale in a thriving, liquid resale market; not that I was planning to resell anytime soon, but you never know what will happen in life. My big worry with RIV would be that the points are worth so much more to Disney (who can resell them as direct points with access to all resorts) than to resale buyers (who are restricted to RIV). This would make me expect that given the big resale discount, over time Disney would start ROFRing pretty much every RIV resale contract. This in turn would lead to the resale market drying up altogether; why go to all that time and trouble when Disney will almost certainly do ROFR? Which takes away the liquid resale market and leaves somebody who wants to sell dependent upon Disney.

 

[Floridian From Afar]

Everything Disney does is in their own financial interest. And unfortunately, the company's financial interests are often not aligned with their customers. A lot of Disney fans are angry with the state of affairs in the company, but when push comes to shove they hand over their credit cards anyway. Disney knows this. You may not like the resale restrictions, but unless Disney is financially impacted in a negative way, there won't be a change. As far as I can tell, Riviera seems to be selling. And if that's the case, expect more resale restrictions on future resorts.

 

[matt and beth]

Personally not interested in RR because of restrictions. Direct or resale

 

[RoseGold]

All of this has been obvious for many years. The restrictions change the product completely, which is why it isn't selling.

VGF over RIV is a no-brainer for almost everyone. I can think of maybe a couple examples to buy RIV, but not many. And even they might be in for pain if RIV resale gets crowded.

In terms of upside down? Only those who financed could be in that position.

I mean yea, you can't be upside down strictly, as in bringing money to pay off a loan you didn't take. But you can take a big hit selling something for less than you paid, which would be pretty much anyone who bought RIV, especially after closing and commission.

 

[Sandisw]

All of this has been obvious for many years. The restrictions change the product completely, which is why it isn't selling.

VGF over RIV is a no-brainer for almost everyone. I can think of maybe a couple examples to buy RIV, but not many. And even they might be in for pain if RIV resale gets crowded.


I mean yea, you can't be upside down strictly, as in bringing money to pay off a loan you didn't take. But you can take a big hit selling something for less than you paid, which would be pretty much anyone who bought RIV, especially after closing and commission.

Which is where we differ because a timeshare isn’t meant as an investment and dont see resale value the same way.

i bought my 125 RIV resale for $152...if I sold for $135, my loss is $3375 when taking in to account commission…closing costs apply to all sales so that is a wash regardless of what resort you buy or sell.

But I have used 3 years worth of points…so 275…already…and that value is more than $0…using a rental rate of even $15 a points, I am actually ahead of the game right now.

So, not everyone trying to sell RIV right now are upside down are taking a big loss…

But, my point was more, that other than VGF…which was an existing and not new resort…every person who has bought direct when a new resort went on sale were in the same boat if they sold within the first 3 1/2 years. And, anyone buying even SSR, OKW, or AKV direct right now would be losing as much if not more than those buying RIV.

Its just too early in the process to know where RIV resale will settle and how the restrictions will ultimately influence resale market long term.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

RIV resale becomes a niche market, but I think all future resorts may very well be. I think the first round of sales was obviously to those of us who already own DVC. Then there was a pause. Now the best incentive is to buy RIV, which for new buyers, who do not understand the implications of the restrictions, may very well be the majority of buyers at this point. They might wrongly assume that disney timeshares hold their value. Which up until recently, they held up very well. No one knows what the future holds but my guess, is that RIV resale and future restricted resorts will not ride the wave of the legacy 42. I think this, in turn, will impact resale prices. I would buy RIV resale - and only within a certain price point.

 

[RoseGold]

I would buy RIV resale - and only within a certain price point.

I'd buy RIV resale too, and take whatever color card they gave me, if the price were right.

But let's be real. They have an army of salesmen and kiosks for a reason. The plan was to sell this thing, like any other timeshare, who cares what it is worth in ten years. And plenty of people buy those too. Disney knows educated buyers were going resale. The restrictions were the only chance to get back in the game competing against themselves, but the restrictions are really pinching short term sales. So, though DL Tower restrictions are obvious IMO, Poly2 is a tough decision for Disney, and a decision on the direction of the product as a whole.

I think the 150 point min also didn't help. This is a tough sell at $30,000. Not exactly a magical impulse decision. And so, some Googling leads them here. Oops.

 

[Nursemanit]

All of this has been obvious for many years. The restrictions change the product completely, which is why it isn't selling.

VGF over RIV is a no-brainer for almost everyone. I can think of maybe a couple examples to buy RIV, but not many. And even they might be in for pain if RIV resale gets crowded.


I mean yea, you can't be upside down strictly, as in bringing money to pay off a loan you didn't take. But you can take a big hit selling something for less than you paid, which would be pretty much anyone who bought RIV, especially after closing and commission.

I could have purchased either but I wanted Epcot area and VGF does not give me that. As nice as the rooms are - I took a Lyft from Epcot after getting crammed in a Monorail with soaking wet kids and strollers on the way.

One is an Epcot resort and one is a MK resort - That is a huge reason for me.

 

[RoseGold]

I could have purchased either but I wanted Epcot area and VGF does not give me that. As nice as the rooms are - I took a Lyft from Epcot after getting crammed in a Monorail with soaking wet kids and strollers on the way.

One is an Epcot resort and one is a MK resort - That is a huge reason for me.

Let's say you bought March 2019 with opening incentives, $188/points. Let's go with the board sponsor's aggressive current (July 22) resale of 139. That's -49/point. Ouch.

BC (June 19) was 142, now (July 22) 167. That's +25. That's a $74/point spread.