Future Recession: Which DVC resale Resorts drop fastest

[AstroBlasters]

2010-2012 was the golden era for getting awesome deals on resale DVC.

It was the golden era to buy almost anything except CDs and UST….

 

[Stank]

Have to agree to disagree.

A wise and confident soothsayer would sell their DVC contract ahead of a severe recession if that were the case. Alas, we all know that’s not going to happen.

Went through 25% inflation over 4 years with $5+ national average gas June 2022. Just filled up for $3.10 today and the war is ending. Check the headlines. Iran is relenting. China has put immense pressure on them. US recession?! This would be a depression in Asia if this doesn’t promptly end. America has literally the best setup energy-wise.

Venezuelan heavy crude is flowing to US Gulf refineries and ramping up significantly already. I remember years ago that diesel was routinely cheaper than gas. Now it’s at a $1-1.50 premium. You’re going to see jet fuel and diesel prices collapse over the next 12-24 months. This is going to reduce costs for everything, including travel.

DVC isn’t going to collapse in price. It won’t go up much. It’s basically going to ebb and flow. Maybe more commercial contracts will go up for sale with the renting clamp down announced today, and if people start getting their reservations canceled. Outside of that, you’re looking at regular price oscillations.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

A wise and confident soothsayer would sell their DVC contract ahead of a severe recession if that were the case. Alas, we all know that’s not going to happen.

Went through 25% inflation over 4 years with $5+ national average gas June 2022. Just filled up for $3.10 today and the war is ending. Check the headlines. Iran is relenting. China has put immense pressure on them. US recession?! This would be a depression in Asia if this doesn’t promptly end. America has literally the best setup energy-wise.

Venezuelan heavy crude is flowing to US Gulf refineries and ramping up significantly already. I remember years ago that diesel was routinely cheaper than gas. Now it’s at a $1-1.50 premium. You’re going to see jet fuel and diesel prices collapse over the next 12-24 months. This is going to reduce costs for everything, including travel.

DVC isn’t going to collapse in price. It won’t go up much. It’s basically going to ebb and flow. Maybe more commercial contracts will go up for sale with the renting clamp down announced today, and if people start getting their reservations canceled. Outside of that, you’re looking at regular price oscillations.

I could counter every one of your points. But that’s not the purpose of the thread. The thread isn’t when will the next recession be. It is which resort will drop the fastest.

 

[Sandisw]

Remember, please do not delve into politics.

 

[Stank]

I could counter every one of your points. But that’s not the purpose of the thread. The thread isn’t when will the next recession be. It is which resort will drop the fastest.

Yet:

Given the current economic indicators, we may be in for a very painful economic recession. If this happens, which DVC resale property(s) do you think will drop the most and why?

Standard backhanded swipe shoehorned in.

Meanwhile, DVC commercial renting crackdown criteria have been released. That’s the stuff that’ll impact DVC pricing with less demand for contracts/more supply by commercial renters.

And I’ll still stick confidently to taking the other side of the premise of this thread.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

Yet:

Standard backhanded swipe shoehorned in.

Meanwhile, DVC commercial renting crackdown criteria have been released. That’s the stuff that’ll impact DVC pricing with less demand for contracts/more supply by commercial renters.

And I’ll still stick confidently to taking the other side of the premise of this thread.

Standard bullying tactics. I’m not taking the bait.

If you want to make a comment as to which resorts resale will fall the fastest either in a recession or the DVC rental crackdown, feel free to do so.

 

[atthebeachclub]

There’s no need for rudeness in here. You might have other opinions, but that doesn’t make the other side your enemy, and you shouldn’t treat them that way.

This is DVC, not congress, and we don’t need to generate antagonistic soundbytes to radicalize our bases in here. Thank God.

 

[Sandisw]

Last reminder…stay on topic and away from what seems as arguments or attacks.

 

[intamin]

I know a lot of people think that VB and HHI will drop off first but does anyone think that they may actually drop off later? It might be easier to stay at VB or HHI since it doesn't require you to purchase tickets. Also, they're already priced low, there isn't much more they could drop so in a recession the person selling it isn't going to get that much money from offloading the contracts although obviously not paying the high dues would be nice during a recession. But it's not like you're going to be able to get back 20k from selling it unless it's a large contract.

 

[gvel]

Standard bullying tactics. I’m not taking the bait.

If you want to make a comment as to which resorts resale will fall the fastest either in a recession or the DVC rental crackdown, feel free to do so.

! This thread was meant as a hypotetical fun discussion on which properties might be affected the most. I don't get why people want to make it about politics and nonsense.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

I know a lot of people think that VB and HHI will drop off first but does anyone think that they may actually drop off later? It might be easier to stay at VB or HHI since it doesn't require you to purchase tickets. Also, they're already priced low, there isn't much more they could drop so in a recession the person selling it isn't going to get that much money from offloading the contracts although obviously not paying the high dues would be nice during a recession. But it's not like you're going to be able to get back 20k from selling it unless it's a large contract.

I also wonder if VB and HHI since they are ‘42 resorts have a lot of long term owners who fell in love with the experience, which as you note doesn’t include park time, and this still works well for them as a budget friendly vacation on a yearly basis.

 

[cruisehopeful]

I know a lot of people think that VB and HHI will drop off first but does anyone think that they may actually drop off later? It might be easier to stay at VB or HHI since it doesn't require you to purchase tickets.

I do think people who can't afford a vacation this year or next year or the next might be able to still enjoy a vacation at one of those resorts since it's already paid for. If I weren't on the other side of the country, I'd be booking those for sure.

 

[Jerry@dvcstore]

It’s difficult to say with certainty which properties may decline in value the fastest. However, if I had to point to a few, Vero Beach and Hilton Head would be near the top of the list. Their higher annual dues, combined with their off-site locations relative to the Walt Disney World resorts, can make them more susceptible to declines in the resale value over time.

In addition, properties with resale restrictions—such as Disney’s Riviera Resort, The Cabins at Fort Wilderness, and The Villas at Disneyland Hotel—could also experience more downward pressure on resale values. Since resale buyers at these resorts are limited in how they can use their points, the buyer pool tends to be smaller compared to unrestricted “legacy” resorts. That reduced flexibility will impact demand and, ultimately, pricing.

That said, all of these resorts offer incredible vacations for families. But when evaluating long-term value, factors like annual dues, location, and usage restrictions will play a significant role in resale performance.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

It’s difficult to say with certainty which properties may decline in value the fastest. However, if I had to point to a few, Vero Beach and Hilton Head would be near the top of the list. Their higher annual dues, combined with their off-site locations relative to the Walt Disney World resorts, can make them more susceptible to declines in the resale value over time.

In addition, properties with resale restrictions—such as Disney’s Riviera Resort, The Cabins at Fort Wilderness, and The Villas at Disneyland Hotel—could also experience more downward pressure on resale values. Since resale buyers at these resorts are limited in how they can use their points, the buyer pool tends to be smaller compared to unrestricted “legacy” resorts. That reduced flexibility will impact demand and, ultimately, pricing.

That said, all of these resorts offer incredible vacations for families. But when evaluating long-term value, factors like annual dues, location, and usage restrictions will play a significant role in resale performance.

I know the dues are high at Vero and Hilton Head, but are they disproportionately represented at this point in the resale market relative to the number of points they have? I know their resale value is lower, but given they are 2042 resorts and in locations on their own, that doesn’t surprise me.

 

[VGCgroupie]

It’s difficult to say with certainty which properties may decline in value the fastest. However, if I had to point to a few, Vero Beach and Hilton Head would be near the top of the list. Their higher annual dues, combined with their off-site locations relative to the Walt Disney World resorts, can make them more susceptible to declines in the resale value over time.

In addition, properties with resale restrictions—such as Disney’s Riviera Resort, The Cabins at Fort Wilderness, and The Villas at Disneyland Hotel—could also experience more downward pressure on resale values. Since resale buyers at these resorts are limited in how they can use their points, the buyer pool tends to be smaller compared to unrestricted “legacy” resorts. That reduced flexibility will impact demand and, ultimately, pricing.

That said, all of these resorts offer incredible vacations for families. But when evaluating long-term value, factors like annual dues, location, and usage restrictions will play a significant role in resale performance.

Hot take for these boards. RIV owners love their RIV and hate seeing restrictions used against them all the time in regards to value. Not saying I agree or disagree on RIV.

I own VDH and I wouldn't think it would fall faster than other resorts simply due to the only other resort in CA is priced the highest both direct and resale of any resort in the portfolio. I am not saying it wont drop but certainly not the fastest.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Hot take for these boards. RIV owners love their RIV and hate seeing restrictions used against them all the time in regards to value. Not saying I agree or disagree on RIV.

I own VDH and I wouldn't think it would fall faster than other resorts simply due to the only other resort in CA is priced the highest both direct and resale of any resort in the portfolio. I am not saying it wont drop but certainly not the fastest.

Obviously I agree about VDH or I wouldn’t have bought there, but the wildcard is the ToT. If it goes up an insane amount it could affect VDH resale pricing negatively I assume.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Obviously I agree about VDH or I wouldn’t have bought there, but the wildcard is the ToT. If it goes up an insane amount it could affect VDH resale pricing negatively I assume.

It will also go up at every other place that you will be staying at to visit DLR. So I firmly believe it will be on the same playing field as it is now with TOT.

 

[atthebeachclub]

It will also go up at every other place that you will be staying at to visit DLR. So I firmly believe it will be on the same playing field as it is now with TOT.

But it’s fixed at VGC, right? Or maybe just at a lower rate?

 

[Mirabell Rose]

It will also go up at every other place that you will be staying at to visit DLR. So I firmly believe it will be on the same playing field as it is now with TOT.

Good point

 

[VGCgroupie]

But it’s fixed at VGC, right? Or maybe just at a lower rate?

Yes but VGC is still very expensive up front and very hard to book. Unless VGC also tanks I dont see the TOT being fixed there making VDH value plummet.