Future Recession: Which DVC resale Resorts drop fastest

[Mirabell Rose]

Hilarious premise. People of certain persuasion were saying this last summer. Didn’t happen.

I’ll take the other side and say we’ll have diesel prices sub-gasoline within the next 2 years, which will be a substantial boon to the entire economy. And we’ll have resolved multi-decade geopolitical issues within a matter of months in 2026, to the disappointment of some.

Regardless, DVC has always had extremely brief punctuated declines following big events, and then recovered quicker than you could make a buying decision. This doesn’t even register as one of them. I randomly was on Google Street View a few days ago and scrolled past a gas station from April 2025 and saw $3.09 gasoline; I literally just filled up at Costco for $3.10 an hour ago. Oil is in severe backwardation. The price of oil 3 months from now, in the middle of summer travel, can be locked up for $80. That shows none of what popular opinion is actually going to materialize.

Wake me up when political eagerness gives way to vapor-locked panic nonbuying. That’s when you’ll see a decline you’re looking for. That’s COVID/9-11/2008. Because you’re eagerly anticipating something that’s clearly not going to materialize means you won’t have the bargain basement prices you’re hoping for.

The commercial renting crackdown changes announced today will have a far larger impact on DVC than ideological day-dreaming fantasies.

Have to agree to disagree.

 

[AstroBlasters]

2010-2012 was the golden era for getting awesome deals on resale DVC.

It was the golden era to buy almost anything except CDs and UST….

 

[Stank]

Have to agree to disagree.

A wise and confident soothsayer would sell their DVC contract ahead of a severe recession if that were the case. Alas, we all know that’s not going to happen.

Went through 25% inflation over 4 years with $5+ national average gas June 2022. Just filled up for $3.10 today and the war is ending. Check the headlines. Iran is relenting. China has put immense pressure on them. US recession?! This would be a depression in Asia if this doesn’t promptly end. America has literally the best setup energy-wise.

Venezuelan heavy crude is flowing to US Gulf refineries and ramping up significantly already. I remember years ago that diesel was routinely cheaper than gas. Now it’s at a $1-1.50 premium. You’re going to see jet fuel and diesel prices collapse over the next 12-24 months. This is going to reduce costs for everything, including travel.

DVC isn’t going to collapse in price. It won’t go up much. It’s basically going to ebb and flow. Maybe more commercial contracts will go up for sale with the renting clamp down announced today, and if people start getting their reservations canceled. Outside of that, you’re looking at regular price oscillations.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

A wise and confident soothsayer would sell their DVC contract ahead of a severe recession if that were the case. Alas, we all know that’s not going to happen.

Went through 25% inflation over 4 years with $5+ national average gas June 2022. Just filled up for $3.10 today and the war is ending. Check the headlines. Iran is relenting. China has put immense pressure on them. US recession?! This would be a depression in Asia if this doesn’t promptly end. America has literally the best setup energy-wise.

Venezuelan heavy crude is flowing to US Gulf refineries and ramping up significantly already. I remember years ago that diesel was routinely cheaper than gas. Now it’s at a $1-1.50 premium. You’re going to see jet fuel and diesel prices collapse over the next 12-24 months. This is going to reduce costs for everything, including travel.

DVC isn’t going to collapse in price. It won’t go up much. It’s basically going to ebb and flow. Maybe more commercial contracts will go up for sale with the renting clamp down announced today, and if people start getting their reservations canceled. Outside of that, you’re looking at regular price oscillations.

I could counter every one of your points. But that’s not the purpose of the thread. The thread isn’t when will the next recession be. It is which resort will drop the fastest.

 

[Stank]

I could counter every one of your points. But that’s not the purpose of the thread. The thread isn’t when will the next recession be. It is which resort will drop the fastest.

I don’t think you could because the war is already winding down as China desperately needs the oil flowing. Trump got them to pressure Iran. It’s over. Watch. Plus, the markets already have September oil trading at $78.

And the thread was about “current economic indicators” indicating a severe recession is around the corner. Laughable. Business equipment production surged 17% annualized as a result of the tax cuts last year; the biggest growth from a non-recession since 1997.

You’re having massive business capex and investment, which yields productivity and growth downstream. This is the exact opposite of your hypothesis. Plus, as I said, diesel is going to come down thanks to heavy crude from Venezuela. Enjoy.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

I don’t think you could because the war is already winding down as China desperately needs the oil flowing. Trump got them to pressure Iran. It’s over. Watch. Plus, the markets already have September oil trading at $78.

And the thread was about “current economic indicators” indicating a severe recession is around the corner. Laughable. Business equipment production surged 17% annualized as a result of the tax cuts last year; the biggest growth from a non-recession since 1997.

You’re having massive business capex and investment, which yields productivity and growth downstream. This is the exact opposite of your hypothesis. Plus, as I said, diesel is going to come down thanks to heavy crude from Venezuela. Enjoy.

I could. I won’t. Why do you insist on continued off topic postings?

 

[Stank]

I could. I won’t. Why do you insist on continued off topic postings?

Given the current economic indicators, we may be in for a very painful economic recession. If this happens, which DVC resale property(s) do you think will drop the most and why?

So there’s that.