Future Recession: Which DVC resale Resorts drop fastest

[Mirabell Rose]

We heard from the condo meetings something like 20% of DVC points are currently being exchanged for something non DVC like cruises. (Do I have the 20% number right?). That’s a lot of points being used for a pretty low conversion rate. It leads me
to believe that there will be serious consideration for those who are converting that many points to sell off of times get tight. It may be the push they need to sell versus poor conversions. And I think it may be the Gen Xers who do a fair amount of dumping. They have no where near the defined benefit pensions the boomers had. Mostly 401k’s. You never saw the pension funds drop in a defined benefit pension, but that 401k statement comes quarterly. This is also a lot of people who have grown kids and realize that grandkids are more of a maybe these days than a for sure. So holding onto Disney stays may not be needed if there are no grandkids.

 

[airjay75]

We heard from the condo meetings something like 20% of DVC points are currently being exchanged for something non DVC like cruises. (Do I have the 20% number right?). That’s a lot of points being used for a pretty low conversion rate. It leads me
to believe that there will be serious consideration for those who are converting that many points to sell off of times get tight. It may be the push they need to sell versus poor conversions. And I think it may be the Gen Xers who do a fair amount of dumping. They have no where near the defined benefit pensions the boomers had. Mostly 401k’s. You never saw the pension funds drop in a defined benefit pension, but that 401k statement comes quarterly. This is also a lot of people who have grown kids and realize that grandkids are more of a maybe these days than a for sure. So holding onto Disney stays may not be needed if there are no grandkids.

I think that's a fair point, but I also think the people exchanging their DVC points for cruises aren't exactly focused on getting the most value for their points. If they aren't in financial difficulty (not just a drop in their 401k but facing serious pressure on monthly expenses), maybe they just say, well, we may not be going to WDW but at least we can keep cruising with our points!. If the resale value looks low, maybe they just hold on and wait for better times. But, if they are facing true financial pressure, then maybe it's a different story.