Future of VDH resale now that DL forward has been approved. Give me the good... the bad.. and the ugly.

[BrianLo]

Currently we have CCV and are under contract for VGC both resale. I was able to book Aulani with my CCV Im not a fan of any of the super close hotels, Hyatt House is pretty good we liked it but I don't like walking the streets of Anaheim, or driving or taking the bus. So Disney properties are our preference.

I think your answer is already VDH, but I’d say the true answer is, which of the two would you actually use 11 month home priority for?

Do you like the concepts of split stays at WDW or no?

From your portfolio you already own, RIV provides you something meaningfully that VDH doesn’t.

VDH provides some wicked point discrepancies to VGC on some random timeframes. Though they may close the points charts discrepancies In the future. The reverse is also true for VGC.

VDH, I agree, should hold better resale value than RIV. Since you are somewhat planning to use them as SAP+, that takes the occasional sting of the TOT out of the mix.


As for Poly, I honestly think that’s a no go, mostly because once you start getting into your level of points ownership, you really should just own Poly resale instead, when it comes back down to earth.

 

[CastAStone]

Do you think RIV will hold value better than VDH? Why or why not.

Will DL forward make VDH more valuable in the future?

1) No, because of the tax. I think the gulf between resale VDH and VGC could wind up being massive.

2) Maybe? It depends what they do, and it depends how the integrate it.

I think it’s likely that DCA’s expansion will happen entirely south of DLH and DL’s will happen entirely north. The DVC tower will have no views into the parks except from a few of the highest rooms on the western telescoping part of the tower, and even those will be partial at best. If they make everyone funnel down to the main entrances to get into the DL, Disneyland Forward will have effectively been useless to VDH. If they add dedicated entrances near DLH into both parks, it will add a lot.

But you’ll lose the little parking there is, among other negatives. It’s not I think a guaranteed huge plus. It’s a potential upside.

 

[CastAStone]

if you rent at $20pp pre-tax

I am not sure what the current rental market is, but I’m assuming people will need to take $2-$3 less for VDH stays due to the taxes. Maybe not right away, but when the market settles.

from nicer/closer “offsite” hotels, so I value it differently than others….but it’s already having trouble selling around $140 with almost no supply, right?

Agree and agree! I think the area around Disneyland and Anaheim Convention Center is probably one of the safest places in the country. Yes some of the buildings have miserly owners who refuse to make them look nice, and yes, sometimes there’s a homeless guy, but it’s the 66th richest county in the entire country, and it’s swarming with cops and conventioneers and parents and children.

And yes, if it can’t sell at $140, it’s going down. Remember Disney is having trouble selling it direct as well; after a hot start it’s been very slow.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I am not sure what the current rental market is, but I’m assuming people will need to take $2-$3 less for VDH stays due to the taxes. Maybe not right away, but when the market settles.

Agree and agree! I think the area around Disneyland and Anaheim Convention Center is probably one of the safest places in the country. Yes some of the buildings have miserly owners who refuse to make them look nice, and yes, sometimes there’s a homeless guy, but it’s the 66th richest county in the entire country, and it’s swarming with cops and conventioneers and parents and children.

And yes, if it can’t sell at $140, it’s going down. Remember Disney is having trouble selling it direct as well; after a hot start it’s been very slow.

People right now are getting $20-$25pp.

We’ll see about the rental market, but with limited Grand Cal inventory the comparison for renters is cash hotel rooms and they all have the TOT.

Disney can always dial up the perks for onsite guests like early entry and extended hours if they want to promote their own hotels and that would likely benefit people staying on DVC points.

Not that I would recommend ever buying with the goal of renting points, but in theory it would put some level of a floor on resale prices.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

People right now are getting $20-$25pp.

We’ll see about the rental market, but with limited Grand Cal inventory the comparison for renters is cash hotel rooms and they all have the TOT.

Disney can always dial up the perks for onsite guests like early entry and extended hours if they want to promote their own hotels and that would likely benefit people staying on DVC points.

Not that I would recommend ever buying with the goal of renting points, but in theory it would put some level of a floor on resale prices.

*in theory* being the key part of your argument. Currently Disney is having trouble keeping Deluxe resorts at a high enough occupancy level at WDW and yet they are rolling out a Genie+ replacement that will give offsite guests with 10 day tickets the opportunity to book in advance of on site guests with 4-7 day tickets, if I understand correctly.

I know you already said this, but I would definitely not buy points with the expectation that Disney will always do what’s necessary to allow owners to rent them profitably…though I suspect that if you can get VDH close to $100 (especially a fixed week stay) it’s likely you’ll be able to at least do better than cover your annual dues and buy in cost spread over life of ownership (assuming you own at least 20 years).

 

[intamin]

*in theory* being the key part of your argument. Currently Disney is having trouble keeping Deluxe resorts at a high enough occupancy level at WDW and yet they are rolling out a Genie+ replacement that will give offsite guests with 10 day tickets the opportunity to book in advance of on site guests with 4-7 day tickets, if I understand correctly.

That's a good point, never thought about it like that. So basically guests not staying at a Disney resort who start their trip 4 days earlier than you can compete with you for lightning lanes.

Or I wonder if it's actually guests who aren't staying with on property have to book each day of lightning lanes 1 day at a time 3 days in advance rather than the duration of their stay since Disney doesn't know how long their actual visit is? Because the only thing they'd have to go off of is your AP/ticket park pass reservations

 

[AstroBlasters]

That's a good point, never thought about it like that. So basically guests not staying at a Disney resort who start their trip 4 days earlier than you can compete with you for lightning lanes.

Or I wonder if it's actually guests who aren't staying with on property have to book each day of lightning lanes 1 day at a time 3 days in advance rather than the duration of their stay since Disney doesn't know how long their actual visit is? Because the only thing they'd have to go off of is your AP/ticket park pass reservations

Is it correct that offsite is 3-days before each day vs onsite that is 7-days before length of entire trip?

So a 10 day offsite guest has to book 3-days out 10x… this also being while they are there at the park on vacation…..

 

[JackosinDIS]

Is it correct that offsite is 3-days before each day vs onsite that is 7-days before length of entire trip?

So a 10 day offsite guest has to book 3-days out 10x… this also being while they are there at the park on vacation…..

I believe for date based tickets, off site guests can book for the entire length of their ticket. So if they have a 10 day ticket they can book up to 13 days out.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I believe for date based tickets, off site guests can book for the entire length of their ticket. So if they have a 10 day ticket they can book up to 13 days out.

It’s weird they spelled out length of stay for the onsite and specifically omitted it for the offsite.

 

[JackosinDIS]

It’s weird they spelled out length of stay for the onsite and specifically omitted it for the offsite.

It is, I agree. Lots of UK folks get an 18 day ticket.. we won’t be able to book until we get to the US due to the way the app works, but in theory, the way it’s currently worded, off site guest could book 18 days ahead, where as on-site limited to 14 days

 

[AstroBlasters]

It is, I agree. Lots of UK folks get an 18 day ticket.. we won’t be able to book until we get to the US due to the way the app works, but in theory, the way it’s currently worded, off site guest could book 18 days ahead, where as on-site limited to 14 days

Fascinating. Thank you for the insights!

It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out.

Disneyland is so much simpler ….. that may influence more people who are equidistant to fly west instead of east if DisneylandFWD is done correctly…. (Moderators STAY ON TOPIC countdown clock in my head)

 

[BrianLo]

*in theory* being the key part of your argument. Currently Disney is having trouble keeping Deluxe resorts at a high enough occupancy level at WDW and yet they are rolling out a Genie+ replacement that will give offsite guests with 10 day tickets the opportunity to book in advance of on site guests with 4-7 day tickets, if I understand correctly.

I know you already said this, but I would definitely not buy points with the expectation that Disney will always do what’s necessary to allow owners to rent them profitably…though I suspect that if you can get VDH close to $100 (especially a fixed week stay) it’s likely you’ll be able to at least do better than cover your annual dues and buy in cost spread over life of ownership (assuming you own at least 20 years).

Disneyland should remain a much different beast than WDW. For the moment, it remains quite under supplied for the number of Disney owned hotel rooms. So even if the WDW rental market softens, I think there will still be strong demand at DLR. Even the DVC supply as stands is incredibly meagre.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Well you can get RIV resale contracts now for $115pp…. how low do you think VDH contracts would go?

I think VDH resale prices could be there in a year, but at $115pp you are almost at a 6% ROI if you rent at $20pp pre-tax. That has to put some sort of floor on it…..

Yeah that 115 kind of scares me, so I was hoping that VDH would possibly be better.

I'm a bit confused how you've concluded the above. I've been an owner at VGC for a few years now and there isn't really any issue with owner availability. Peak times are a little more popular, and Disney took out inventory fall 2024 for refurbishment, changed their mind, and put inventory back. But outside that, no problem.

I was looking at the 11 month availability and what I would want was gone, but thats not to say I couldn't get what I wanted at 8am when the 11 month window opens.

I think your answer is already VDH, but I’d say the true answer is, which of the two would you actually use 11 month home priority for?

Do you like the concepts of split stays at WDW or no?

I would be okay split stay at WDW, but for DL I probably would not want to split stay.

But you’ll lose the little parking there is, among other negatives. It’s not I think a guaranteed huge plus. It’s a potential upside.

So its basically rolling the dice and hoping for the best.

 

[intamin]

I believe for date based tickets, off site guests can book for the entire length of their ticket. So if they have a 10 day ticket they can book up to 13 days out.

Sooo basically if you're an annual passholder who likes staying offsite then you're kind of screwed.

 

[JackosinDIS]

Sooo basically if you're an annual passholder who likes staying offsite then you're kind of screwed.

It doesn’t look great for that group of people, but I’m optimistic that LL times will be held back for the 3 day advance bookings so there are some left for both this group and people who purchase ‘day of’ LL. We will find out in 23 days!

 

[CastAStone]

Fascinating. Thank you for the insights!

It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out.

Disneyland is so much simpler ….. that may influence more people who are equidistant to fly west instead of east if DisneylandFWD is done correctly…. (Moderators STAY ON TOPIC countdown clock in my head)

I have felt that way since the introduction of fastpass+ in 2013, but no one seems to have joined me on my regular trips out west

 

[CastAStone]

Sooo basically if you're an annual passholder who likes staying offsite then you're kind of screwed.

Or lives locally. I think honestly, though that greatly depends on how popular multi pass lightning lane will be, and how much availability they have before it sells out, which we really don’t know.

 

[intamin]

Fascinating. Thank you for the insights!

It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out.

Disneyland is so much simpler ….. that may influence more people who are equidistant to fly west instead of east if DisneylandFWD is done correctly…. (Moderators STAY ON TOPIC countdown clock in my head)

You could just be like me and not buy Genie+/ILLs on either coast (I refuse to reward Cheapek ). I do feel for those families though who have young children that don't have the patience for an hour long line

 

[AstroBlasters]

You could just be like me and not buy Genie+/ILLs on either coast (I refuse to reward Cheapek ). I do feel for those families though who have young children that don't have the patience for an hour long line

G+ is just a cost of doing business for a DisneyParks trip for us.

 

[intamin]

G+ is just a cost of doing business for a DisneyParks trip for us.

That's fair, it's more of a personal thing for us since we'll have been locals to both sides pretty soon that I don't feel the need to get it but to each their own. I am curious if I'll ever purchase G+/ILL. Like I said possibly with kids down the line. We are for sure buying it for Tokyo Disney during that upcoming trip because Tokyo Disney reservations are insane. Buying the package to guarantee entry into Fantasy Springs was worth it.