Future DVC prices - strategy

[Bjaiken77]

I know there have been other threads like this, so I apologize to those who love to point that out. However, I’m attaching this directly to DVC Resale Markets Resale report for March:

DVC Resale March

I’m concerned because I’m new to DVC and thought I’d be getting my feet wet and adding on or maybe selling contracts. You know, playing around until you get it just right. However, I feel this pressure to make sure I make all the right decisions now, as prices are just skyrocketing.

I’m just trying to figure out strategies based on anticipated trends:

1. Is this steep incline in prices going to continue at the same rate? Is it going to be steeper?

2. Should I focus on”premium” resorts (if I ever want to buy there) as those will go up faster than others?

3. Should I buy as many points as possible at cheaper resorts (ie SSR, OKW) and just be happy that I’m staying on property for less than rack rate?

4. Is there a point in time when you or I just throw in the towel and say, “these prices aren’t worth it?”

I know nobody knows for sure, but I’m sure you can appreciate my position. It’s crazy entering pretty much any situation as a new person in volatile times. It’s much more comfortable to enter when things are stable and look around a bit knowing things will be relatively similar month to month. Thanks, in advance, for your thought.

 

[Minniemoo15]

No advice, just commiseration. We bought a few years ago- resale at PVB and now are looking to add-on. I can't believe how much the prices have risen there in a short time. So now I'm wondering...do I just buy SSR direct, if it's the same price as PVB resale? The blue card and ability to stay at future resorts is enticing. But if I'm considering SSR...shouldn't I just get it resale since I have already determined the perks don't mean much to me anyway? Ahh.. DVC research is never-ending mind games!

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Direct prices always kind of put a ceiling on resale. Considering the benefits of buying direct instead, I'm not sure price can increase at this rate for month after month.

I wouldn't rush into anything. Maybe take a look at the ROFR thread to get an idea for what people are paying? DVC Resale's list prices seem a bit higher than other brokers so it wouldn't surprise me if their average is higher.

 

[MrWonderful]

IMO, now is not a good time to be buying. In real estate, it's all about location location location & TIMING, and sometimes dumb luck. Last summer was the latest buying opportunity, the "Covid dip" and no ROFR active made it a buyers market. As things ebb and flow, another buying opportunity will come, but right now is not that time. Prices are just silly high at the moment.

 

[havoc315]

I know there have been other threads like this, so I apologize to those who love to point that out. However, I’m attaching this directly to DVC Resale Markets Resale report for March:

DVC Resale March

I’m concerned because I’m new to DVC and thought I’d be getting my feet wet and adding on or maybe selling contracts. You know, playing around until you get it just right. However, I feel this pressure to make sure I make all the right decisions now, as prices are just skyrocketing.

I’m just trying to figure out strategies based on anticipated trends:

1. Is this steep incline in prices going to continue at the same rate? Is it going to be steeper?

2. Should I focus on”premium” resorts (if I ever want to buy there) as those will go up faster than others?

3. Should I buy as many points as possible at cheaper resorts (ie SSR, OKW) and just be happy that I’m staying on property for less than rack rate?

4. Is there a point in time when you or I just throw in the towel and say, “these prices aren’t worth it?”

I know nobody knows for sure, but I’m sure you can appreciate my position. It’s crazy entering pretty much any situation as a new person in volatile times. It’s much more comfortable to enter when things are stable and look around a bit knowing things will be relatively similar month to month. Thanks, in advance, for your thought.

There are no right or wrong answers to your questions.
For those looking to simply pay the lowest possible prices, that are happy to have something nicer than a value resort -- then buying a ton of cheap points makes sense.
For someone who wants to book premium times of year at premium resorts, then it makes sense to buy into those more premium resorts.

As to the the rate of include -- impossible to really know. Inflation will likely continue to increase prices, but I don't think anybody can say how steeply.
And is there a point where the prices aren't worth it? That's a largely subjective question. For many resorts, any "savings" are pretty minor compare to either renting points or booking with discounts, pin codes, etc.
Considering the time value of money, it's definitely questionable whether it makes sense to lock in a huge down payment on future travel.
So it really becomes very subjective.... is it worth locking in so much money in advance in order to lock in future vacations at a somewhat discounted rate.

 

[princesscinderella]

I think VGF will always hold its value and resale prices are only about $30 more than when they went on sale direct. I think it will become the VGC of the WDW properties due to its size and being part of the Grand Floridian.

 

[happythoughts & pixiedust]

Prices will continue to increase. There is a huge amount of pent up demand from all the pandemic lockdowns. In my opinion, this will lead to a "YOLO" mentality that will drive leisure and travel spending over at least the next 3-5 years.

You could hold off waiting for a price correction or recession, but if prices continue to go up for the next 5 years until that happens, the "dip" in prices will be higher than they are today. Like the stock market, studies have shown waiting to "buy the dip" almost never works out and you'd be better off going all in today, as it's much more likely the market will continue to rise until it comes back down.

Buy now if you have a use for the points now. It doesn't make sense to own DVC if you're not going to use the points. If you have a use for the points, it is still a great deal, even at these increased prices. It's going to take 3-4 months from offer to points in your account for resale, plus you'll want to utilize your 7-11 mo. window, so buy today for trips you want to take next spring or summer.

Also, if you're planning to hold the contract to expiration, the fluctuating future value of your points doesn't matter. It only matters if you think you'll be reselling at some point.

If you are thinking about reselling, then buying direct makes little sense. Resale offers far better value.

My first advice is buy where you want to stay, but if you know for sure you are going to be selling in 10-15 years, these are the best contracts to look at:

Polynesian (currently undervalued)
Grand Floridian (will be a top resale performer)
Bay Lake Tower (strong track record, demand should continue to be strong)
Copper Creek (currently undervalued)

Stay away from any of the 21 year remaining contracts. Their value will undoubtedly decline over the next 10-15 years.

In my opinion, Grand Californian is over priced, Riviera is too much of a crapshoot with resale restrictions (a small direct purchase is probably the best way to play Riviera), Animal Kingdom is a bit overpriced at the moment, Saratoga Springs doesn't have a great resale track record (the worst resale performer at WDW - this is exactly why it remains an "affordable" option), and Aulani has had a terrible resale track record.

 

[Ruttangel]

I’m not sure on your strategy of buying and selling, with closing costs, commission etc.....difficult to see where you could make money in a short period of time starting DVC today.
If I had to guess then PVB are still low on buybacks so a good option at $140 or even VGF is you can get it at $160

 

[RoseGold]

Take your time. DVC is not going anywhere.

Before you buy, you need to be an informed consumer. You should know the answer to all of those questions before buying IMO, and some of those you might answer differently than me.

Especially right this minute, DVC is on fire. There is no rush.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

I think it will become the VGC of the WDW properties due to its size and being part of the Grand Floridian.

VGC is small and the only DVC property in California which drives very high demand. There are too many DVC options at WDW for any DVC property to be like VGC.

 

[sethschroeder]

adding on or maybe selling contracts.

I don't get your comment are you trying to flip DVC contracts?

Do you want:

• Stay at your preferred resort and pay a premium?
• Stay at random resorts each and save some money upfront although you may never stay at the most wanted resorts?

Some don't care where they stay and others want to stay at their preferred resort each year for sure.

 

[Bjaiken77]

I don't get your comment are you trying to flip DVC contracts?

Do you want:

• Stay at your preferred resort and pay a premium?
• Stay at random resorts each and save some money upfront although you may never stay at the most wanted resorts?

Some don't care where they stay and others want to stay at their preferred resort each year for sure.

No, I’m not trying to sell or flip. However, I may change my strategy down the road (ex. sell a big contract and use proceeds to buy a smaller contract at a different resort). It feels like I need to make all the right decisions up front, as things are changing so fast. I’m sure there will be things I’ll learn regarding my preferences with DVC over time. I’d like to return to a stable marketplace to purchase or at least have the ability to explore possibilities. That doesn’t seem to be the direction things are headed, though. I’ve tried to think of everything in advance, but I’m sure I made at least a few mistakes or there are things I wished I had done differently.

 

[Sandisw]

My advice is simple. Buy DVC for the purpose of vacation, not for getting your purchase price back. Buy a resort that makes you happy when you go if that’s the only place you could stay, even if it costs you a little more now. DVC is too much $$$$ to end up with a resort that doesn’t make you happy when you arrive.

DVC resale prices go up and down but over time, have risen steadily. That could change tomorrow so if what you see today fits your needs and feels like a good deal, then don’t worry about trying to beat the market.

Good luck!

 

[Brian Noble]

My advice is simple. Buy DVC for the purpose of vacation, not for getting your purchase price back.

Agreed, and I would go one step further: Assume for a moment that you will get nothing when you want to dispose of the contract, and buy only if it still makes sense to you.

 

[Kahlenfiore]

I've been looking to add on since December and honestly am kicking myself I didn't jump on some of the listings I saw then. In that time I've seen a few awesome deals listed, of course I was too late on any of them, but they do come through. You have to have a good idea of what you want and be ready to jump when you see it. I am getting impatient now though and have been considering adding on direct at OKW. Will cost more, but will be quick and have the extended years. Hoping we don't see another direct price increase before I decide.

 

[fgaini]

Good luck with the choice! From a pure economical point of view Aulani subsidized, Poly and BLT for me are the best option, but it really depends on how important for you is the home preference...

 

[DL1WDW2]

I probably would not allow friends or family to buy currently. But strangers with cash only to buy and no finance Yes we need to keep DVC going.
I am most uncomfortable with future of DVC Maintenance fees and increasing point charts per night and DVC “creating” a 7 month chart (instead of traditional 5 month seasons) to manipulate items we have no control over.
I currently own BRV and BLT . BRV has always seems to be the slowest to increase in pricing and now it is seeing increase finally. So might sellBRV... will never sell BLT .
I also agree with previous poster : YOLO .for next 5 years. I think next year and a half and then falling back down to normal demand but never crashing down... 50 th Anniversary will be crazy busy for next year and half cause they always extend Anniversaries.
People are booking in advance hoping for cash discounts but why would Disney offer discounts when they see everybody grabbing reservations?

 

[DL1WDW2]

I just saw A billboard on recently cleared property (with sewage lines already in place) for an Embassy Suites location behind Target and Margaritaville/Sunset Walk complex. Also Marriott Residence Inn and new Hilton Garden Inn and another Hilton Hampton Inn& suites) about to open just off Western Way behind AK . near the new College Internship Housing (also huge campus) ... Disney will have lots of family vacation choices nearby. Also some new construction on Disney Springs side with Drury Inn for example.
Maybe guests won’t need (deluxe but some not so deluxe) DVC choices in future... If DVC is hoping to compete they will need to update . Which will increase dues ... Nothing “deluxe” about a bed and a couch in studio in my opinion. I think I just talked myself into dumping my BRV ... currently that 11 month/ 7 month window has been brutal. Nobody tells you about walking !

 

[DVCanadian]

Prices will continue to increase. There is a huge amount of pent up demand from all the pandemic lockdowns. In my opinion, this will lead to a "YOLO" mentality that will drive leisure and travel spending over at least the next 3-5 years.

You could hold off waiting for a price correction or recession, but if prices continue to go up for the next 5 years until that happens, the "dip" in prices will be higher than they are today. Like the stock market, studies have shown waiting to "buy the dip" almost never works out and you'd be better off going all in today, as it's much more likely the market will continue to rise until it comes back down.

Buy now if you have a use for the points now. It doesn't make sense to own DVC if you're not going to use the points. If you have a use for the points, it is still a great deal, even at these increased prices. It's going to take 3-4 months from offer to points in your account for resale, plus you'll want to utilize your 7-11 mo. window, so buy today for trips you want to take next spring or summer.

Also, if you're planning to hold the contract to expiration, the fluctuating future value of your points doesn't matter. It only matters if you think you'll be reselling at some point.

If you are thinking about reselling, then buying direct makes little sense. Resale offers far better value.

My first advice is buy where you want to stay, but if you know for sure you are going to be selling in 10-15 years, these are the best contracts to look at:

Polynesian (currently undervalued)
Grand Floridian (will be a top resale performer)
Bay Lake Tower (strong track record, demand should continue to be strong)
Copper Creek (currently undervalued)

Stay away from any of the 21 year remaining contracts. Their value will undoubtedly decline over the next 10-15 years.

In my opinion, Grand Californian is over priced, Riviera is too much of a crapshoot with resale restrictions (a small direct purchase is probably the best way to play Riviera), Animal Kingdom is a bit overpriced at the moment, Saratoga Springs doesn't have a great resale track record (the worst resale performer at WDW - this is exactly why it remains an "affordable" option), and Aulani has had a terrible resale track record.

Happy thoughts post contains all you need to know.

Prices will keep going up. I believe the people who know about DVC are buying it now based on previous vacations. Right now how many parents are promising kids (or themselves) that trip to Disney to get through the pandemic? That will produce a whole new crop of potential DVC purchases.
People are desperate for vacations, some families have missed out on two years of vacations, you can’t get that time back, only double down on going in the future, with DVC.

eventually the prices for 2042 resorts have to go down, when is that? No idea, I don’t see demand for vacations going down any time soon (barring pandemic v2).

counterpoint: owning a timeshare seems like a good idea when sitting on the couch in lockdown, perhaps in 2-3 years a lot of regret will hit the market and tons of people sell.

buy if you want DVC then sit back and take the vacations.

 

[Stargazer65]

Don't stress about it. If you planned to buy points for vacation now, then do so. If you planned to save up and do it next year, do so. Ignore what's going on in the real estate market. Buying at the right or wrong time might cost a thousand or a few thousand, or save a few thousand more or less. But in your lifetime it most likely will not matter much. This is a vacation club, it's not an investment...or at least I don't consider it one.