As many have previously opined there is some possibility a second wave of point shifting from higher demand to lower demand seasons similar to that for 2021 will be made for 2022. That is what occurred a decade ago when a major shift of points from weekend days to weekday was made. The shift occurred over two years, mainly because the total shift done over the two year period that
DVC made exceeded a 20% daily change for some of the times and rooms, and points for any given room cannot be lowered or raised for any particular date more than 20% in any one year absent an actual vote of the members.
My personal sense is that, even if a 2022 change is in the plans, it might be delayed. or consist of only minor changes, because of Covid, not accelerated, because DVC may now believe it necessary to wait a couple years to see what the actual impact the Covid changes may have on reservation patterns.
For example, beginning about three months ago, many have expressed a belief that demand for 2021 would become a real problem because of the move of points from 2020 to 2021 as a result of the Covid problems. However, from what I have thus far been seeing for reservations at the 11-month and 7-month windows in 2021, that excess demand is not actually occurring, at least not yet. Availability at 11-months out appears to be about the same that it has has been in past years, with those rooms usually having an 11-month issue still having it on about the same frequency and the rest of the rooms still being readily available.
The same has been occurring for 7-month reservations, with rooms usually booked full before 7-months out during the applicable times during prior years being booked full in 2021 and those usually open at 7-months out still being open. The feared excess demand may not be occurring due to Covid factors offsetting the significant increase in overall available points, e.g., many members may not even be making reservations because they are instead waiting for a vaccine to be readily available before even considering it, or they have had financial issues develop putting off taking any trips to WDW in 2021.
Though DVC asserts it has the right, despite prior written representations otherwise, to significantly raise points needed for studios and 1BRs year-round (the lock-off premium issue), my guess is we will not see that one again, at least not soon. Though it is true that a member might no longer be able to trust the modern DVC to avoid taking actions designed to do injury to members for the sake of making more profits (e.g., all the moves it has done to satisfy its desire to destroy resale purchasers), DVC did withdraw its previous attempt to raise studios and 1BRs year-round, and it appears it changed that plan to one perusing the alternative plan, as it did for 2021, of allowed shifts of points among seasons.
