You have to wonder why Disney doesn't seem worried about late summer/fall crowds planning to go somewhere else

? Even if they weren't sure if they are ofering FD or are secretly planning to offer it later, you think they would have something out now to keep people interested. Like maybe extend the up to 30% through the end of Sept for now and see how booking goes and maybe add
free dining later to boost bookings. it makes no sense that there is NOTHING out there after 8/14. People who want to vacation at the end of the summer (like us) may start getting nervous that there's not going to be a GP offer and book other things.
They are worried about both the way I see it.. but right now -- they are worried about the closer dates that they still want to fill rooms for. And they'll probably keep tossing offers into the marketplace til those summer bookings get up where they want them to be.
And then they'll move on to the fall bookings.. as has been suggested many times (including by me in the first post of this thread) I wouldn't expect a F/D offer til late April or early May.
Will I still be checking daily? Yup. But I really don't expect it.
Another MODERATOR stated that the folks on this site are merely a fraction of the people that attend Disney. The 'few' people that are booking now and still hoping to get FD know they can do that. Like the other MODERATOR said, when Disney advertises FD or Discounts the general public goes Hey that sounds like a good deal and books. Very few folks that go to Disney know about this site or any unoffical site. I bet it's less the 3% and that is the high end estimate.
All of that is true - but I still agree with Goofy4Tink that those who book in anticipation of the fall promo are in fact shooting themselves in the foot. Disney DOES release rooms to a promo based on existing bookings ... This is why for the past couple of years, the F/D rooms at Pop Century are ridiculously hard to come by. There are other resorts with that same story.
At the end of the day - I completely agree with Goofy4tink -- if you book at your favorite resort now before the promo - you are reducing the number of rooms potentially to be released on any forthcoming promo. It's simple math.
I did a huge post about this and explaining the math, the logic etc. And add to that it would only take a thousand DIS'ers booking 5 night or greater stays in the month of September to adversely affect the number of rooms available etc.
I get that people want to 'have something booked' .. but it guarantees you NOTHING ... why? Read on..
If you book a reservaton and then a promotional offer comes out, you do not have to cancel your reservation. They simply add/change the offer to your existing reservation.
Sorry, but thats how they make it sound on the phone. But that's not the reality.
Any promo ... has a room inventory associated with it. If you are booked now at rack rate or on another promo (and it has to be one of those because F/D is not yet available for booking) they will have to create a new reservation for you from the 'promo room inventory' vs. whatever room inventory you have now. Depending on how the Cm on the phone goes about the steps necessary for that -- your reservation # may or may not change.
But that doesn't change this fact:
IF there is no room inventory on the promo at your resort of choice ... then you either gotta change your dates, or your resort, or possibly both. Regardless of what reservation you currently hold.
Everyone sing along... I repeat it enough you all know the tune...
BOOKING NOW GUARANTEES YOU ABSOLUTELY NOTHING unless you intend to go with or without F/D offers.