When we were there in June, the first past pass return times we'd see would only be 20-30min away sometimes. That 's why we'd run a get a fast pass, get in a stand-by line, and ride the fast pass ride if we couldn't get a new one yet. By then, the fast pass times were starting to get an hour or so away. A new, really popular ride like soarin' will use up the fast-pass times much faster. By noon, return times can be in the evening, so ride early while you can.
This is less true for the most popular attractions. When we visited last week Space Mountain FPs were for after 10:00 by 9:10 (so about an hour ahead).
If you go for morning EMH, the times will be around 20 minutes after official opening, so 1 hour +. I made this mistake at MK when I got one for Pooh and did not realize it was 1 hour later than I wanted.
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