FP availability and Crowd Prediction.

[xipotec]

So I noticed something today....
Here is my current 2 day plan.

Monday HS SWGE
Tuesday : MK

Heres the interesting part.
FP for both parks is pretty much non existent at this point for both days. Especially for the big rides.

BUT

If I switch days, MK on Monday and HS on Tues, then the FP availability for BOTH parks is much more open.....which is odd since Monday at MK is a hard ticket night for Disney after Dark.

The ADR’s are still pretty open for each day, enough to make it work.

So does anyone have experience with FP availability and Crowd levels?

Do you think this is enough reasons to switch my park days?
(BTW I am in the 30 day window !

 

[Robo]

Just do what looks best for your dates.

 

[Remy is Up]

Just because they arent available now means nothing. Day of use refresh and anything is available. Especially at MK

 

[Klayfish]

Just because they arent available now means nothing. Day of use refresh and anything is available. Especially at MK

Yep. OP, what you're trying to correlate has very little if any accuracy value.

 

[xipotec]

Ah well. Its was worth a shot.

Trying to plan out the days a bit because of ADRS

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

That's very interesting. I would say that's a pretty decent indication that parks may be less busy the opposite days than you were planning them. Both days are within 30 right (not just one of them)? What it doesn't account for is AP holders, people buying tickets last minute and day of. That could always skew things at the last minute and the park that looks less busy now might actually be more busy on the day. But if you're thinking of changing for better crowds (and not FP availability day of), I'd be tempted to switch too. If you can get better FP times, ADRs aren't a problem, and it doesn't mess up anything else in your schedule, go for it. If you're just thinking of switching because you think it's an indication there will be more FPs day of, then I think pp are right. A lot of the open FPs will be booked eventually and day of it will probably not matter much either way.

 

[CastAStone]

MK is basically always busier on Monday than Tuesday. The exceptions are almost all during party season when MK closes at 6 some Mondays, and around holidays.

I wouldn’t switch.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

MK is basically always busier on Monday than Tuesday. The exceptions are almost all during party season when MK closes at 6 some Mondays, and around holidays.

I wouldn’t switch.

I looked at the Touring Plans historical crowd levels for last year and the pattern you mentioned holds for earlier in the year and July. But particularly in April and May you see a mixed bag. Often MK and M and T are the same and sometimes T had a lower crowd than M. You do also see some cases like what the OP is looking to do where M was lower at MK and T was lower at HS. It's not super common, but given the FP data that OP is seeing, that week could be one of those cases.

 

[xipotec]

FP data is still really convincing.at least with the switch I was able to get 7DMT and SM at the times I wanted, and got all my ADR’s at better times also. So even if crowds are higher, the plan should be easier due to getting the big 2 rides at great times.
On the other side, with HS , I was able to get 2 earl morning throw away FP and a tier one TSM at 3. Also was able to get my ADR’s that day at 2 separate time (Oga’s twice).
So by 3pm I can start hunting other tier ones after spending the morning at SWGE.

 

[gharter]

Glad it worked out.
Same day FPs tend to be easy to get at MK for everything except 7DMT, maybe PP.
Other than SDD, we have ben able to get same day FPs for all the other tier 1 rides.
Good luck.