For those with Cruises before May 31

[FigmentSpark]

Our Fantasy cruise next weekend is now showing availability, including concierge. What surprises me is the price is still way up there to book. Either they don't think there's any hope of selling those rooms or they're trying to make sure people aren't going to cancel and then rebook the same sailing as a new sailing. Maybe it's cheaper to have some empty rooms.

 

[DIS_MIKE]

Is anyone here old enough to remember H1N1 and the way that played out? Millions infected and over a thousand fatalities before any sort of emergency response was put into action, no?

I don't remember cruises, concerts, festivals, etc. being cancelled. What is so different about CV19/Covid19 that it is generating this sort of response?

same here...I don’t remember H1N1 canceling events and cruises. It was a big deal but it fizzled out After a while. Didn’t they come out with a vaccine rather quickly though? With CV19 they are saying a year at the earliest.

 

[Gentry2004]

Our Fantasy cruise next weekend is now showing availability, including concierge. What surprises me is the price is still way up there to book. Either they don't think there's any hope of selling those rooms or they're trying to make sure people aren't going to cancel and then rebook the same sailing as a new sailing. Maybe it's cheaper to have some empty rooms.

I wonder how many rooms can sail empty and still pay for the operating expenses of the boat, fuel, staff, food, etc. ?

 

[Gentry2004]

same here...I don’t remember H1N1 canceling events and cruises. It was a big deal but it fizzled out After a while. Didn’t they come out with a vaccine rather quickly though? With CV19 they are saying a year at the earliest.

Yes, we got vaccinated for it that same winter. I didn't cruise back then so no idea about that.

 

[jdg345]

Oh yes, my daughter was pregnant and got sick, they put her right into the hospital, luckily she didn't have it.
I have no memories of cancellation of so many events either.

So what makes this so different? Is this really a much bigger threat than that was?

 

[jdg345]

I saw a post showing every election year it is some virus that is going to take the world to its knees.

Eventually, I suppose they'll be right.

 

[cph706]

Is anyone here old enough to remember H1N1 and the way that played out? Millions infected and over a thousand fatalities before any sort of emergency response was put into action, no?

I don't remember cruises, concerts, festivals, etc. being cancelled. What is so different about CV19/Covid19 that it is generating this sort of response?

So H1N1 was a virulent strain of influenza. The vaccine available had a slight protective effect. This is a “novel” virus meaning there is a no native immunity (though there is apparently some in young children) and of course no vaccine. In addition this virus shows a predilection for deep lung tissue, which is why those with underlying illnesses end up on respirators (and sometimes die). Right now the fatality rate is doubled with every decade over 60 (so 15% for those in their 80’s).

 

[DIS_MIKE]

I wonder how many rooms can sail empty and still pay for the operating expenses of the boat, fuel, staff, food, etc. ?

That’s a good question. My cruise in May has a ton of staterooms showing availability And the price hasn’t dropped. I doubt they will sell those rooms now.
Makes me wonder if DCL will offer upgrades to certain guests.

 

[cwis]

That’s a good question. My cruise in May has a ton of staterooms showing availability And the price hasn’t dropped. I doubt they will sell those rooms now.
Makes me wonder if DCL will offer upgrades to certain guests.

I'm afraid DCL is not going to drop prices, out of fear that people would NOT book new rooms until prices drop significantly.

On the same topic, I'm wondering if, maybe, they're more generous regarding port upgrades. (Edit: I mean upgrades you pay for. There might also be free upgrades though, to balance work between stateroom hosts.)

 

[jdg345]

same here...I don’t remember H1N1 canceling events and cruises. It was a big deal but it fizzled out After a while. Didn’t they come out with a vaccine rather quickly though? With CV19 they are saying a year at the earliest.

Yup, H1N1 really started hitting hard around April and vaccine was available by December 2009/January 2010 ... pretty quick turnaround compared to what they're saying with this. The other thing is that the CDC stated recovery tended to be fairly quick for H1N1 and that just doesn't seem to be the case for this. It's been 2 weeks since the passengers from the Diamond Princess were brought back and as far as I know, they're all still in QT.

H1N1 killed ~13k in the US and Hundreds of Thousands (estimates up to ~550k) worldwide.

The numbers for COVID19 seem to be a far stretch from those at this point in time (we're 3 months in to this) ... so I just don't understand what they are treating this so differently?

 

[DCSWO]

I would go. The quarantine is the biggest threat - not a virus. It will be less crowded. You will likely see some service changes but nothing that will overshadow your family’s long lasting positive memories. Admittedly, I am someone who went to Disneyland a few days after 9/11 and it was great.

 

[lorimay]

That’s a good question. My cruise in May has a ton of staterooms showing availability And the price hasn’t dropped. I doubt they will sell those rooms now.
Makes me wonder if DCL will offer upgrades to certain guests.

I'm curious about this too.
This is our 20th DCL cruise, they can upgrade me, that would be awesome. Haven't had a free upgrade since our second cruise in 2003!
We live about 45 minutes north of the port, we're gonna go early and see about changing our room.

 

[jdg345]

So H1N1 was a virulent strain of influenza. The vaccine available had a slight protective effect. This is a “novel” virus meaning there is a no native immunity (though there is apparently some in young children) and of course no vaccine. In addition this virus shows a predilection for deep lung tissue, which is why those with underlying illnesses end up on respirators (and sometimes die). Right now the fatality rate is doubled with every decade over 60 (so 15% for those in their 80’s).

While there was some cross protection, H1N1/09 destroys the lungs' alveoli, often causing acute respiratory distress syndrome, which kills in half of all cases. Preliminary research suggests that severity is linked to a genetic variation in immune systems (from Wiki) ... so there is predilection for lung tissue damage here as well.

With the recent "community spread" and testing, I'm left to wonder if this hasn't been around in the US for months now and we're only finding it because we're looking for it. If this is as contagious as the cold/flu, and 80% of the cases are mild, the fatility rate could be comparable. I guess we just don't know yet.

 

[n2mm]

I'm afraid DCL is not going to drop prices, out of fear that people would NOT book new rooms until prices drop significantly.

On the same topic, I'm wondering if, maybe, they're more generous regarding port upgrades. (Edit: I mean upgrades you pay for. There might also be free upgrades though, to balance work between stateroom hosts.)

I would be more concerned if they cancel the cruise because it cost more taking it out then keeping it in port. Maybe the plan is to get enough people to cancel to justify canceling the cruise. I’m 40 days out, so watching how this all plays out.

 

[MarkLT1]

The numbers for COVID19 seem to be a far stretch from those at this point in time (we're 3 months in to this) ... so I just don't understand what they are treating this so differently?

I think one of the primary concerns is the time history, and how fast it is happening. Here is a basic plot showing deaths in the first 100 days of H1N1 vs SARS vs COVID-19. We're only "officially" at day 58 for COVID. Now there are many reasons for there being more deaths, including how reliable the China numbers have been, the seasonality of H1N1 and influenza in general (and when the H1N1 outbreak began), and so this plot should not be looked at as "OMG the sky is falling", however I think it illuminates why the WHO/CDC/et al are (and should be) "concerned" about this bug.

Just to be clear- this plot should not be inferred as fear mongering, implications that this bug is going to kill off the world, etc.. as there are perfectly valid reasons you would have this kind of acceleration in the first 100 days. However it is simply to illustrate why epidemiologists would consider it a bug that could end up being quite bad.

 

[jdg345]

I think one of the primary concerns is the time history, and how fast it is happening. Here is a basic plot showing deaths in the first 100 days of H1N1 vs SARS vs COVID-19. We're only "officially" at day 58 for COVID. Now there are many reasons for there being more deaths, including how reliable the China numbers have been, the seasonality of H1N1 and influenza in general (and when the H1N1 outbreak began), and so this plot should not be looked at as "OMG the sky is falling", however I think it illuminates why the WHO/CDC/et al are (and should be) "concerned" about this bug.

Just to be clear- this plot should not be inferred as fear mongering, implications that this bug is going to kill off the world, etc.. as there are perfectly valid reasons you would have this kind of acceleration in the first 100 days. However it is simply to illustrate why epidemiologists would consider it a bug that could end up being quite bad.

View attachment 479669

Do you have a chart that shows beyond Day-100? Would love to see what happens to that curve; it looks like it's getting ready to rip.

Agree also on your point regarding acceleration. H1N1 had some cross protection and it started to spread during spring/summer where Influenza tends to be less active in general. Day-100+ is when season kicks in, which is why I'm wondering what that looks like.

I figured deaths are also higher than stated, but I also figure there are many more people who have caught this and just don't know they have it.

 

[BlueRibbon]

We're booked on the 3/23 Magic sailing out of Miami. Like many here, the crew is all young and healthy, so we're not worried about the virus, but are concerned about a QT.

Personally, I feel this is all overblown, and the Chicken Littles are being allowed to rule the day. I see it as my American Duty to go on this cruise to keep the economy going.

However, if things turn south late next week, we'll probably take advantage of the credit, but I'll have to deal with JetBlue about an airline credit. I booked the tickets just two weeks ago, and LAX-FLL was $500/ticket. Now they're around $250!!! But of course, I made the reservations 3 days before their "Book with confidence!! You'll get your money back if you need to cancel out!" announcement too effect. Worst case is that I'd need to pay a $200/ticket cancellation fee, but at least I'd get a portion of my money back...

 

[LeiaOfAlderaan]

I am doing the same. 14 days having food delivered and watching Disney movies sound bliss to me.

I agree that that doesn’t sound too bad (other than DD missing school). The problem is that after the Diamond Princess (as we are seeing happen now with Grand Princess) you would most be likely doing the 14 day quarantine on a military base or similar, not the ship.

 

[jdg345]

I agree that that doesn’t sound too bad (other than DD missing school). The problem is that after the Diamond Princess (as we are seeing happen now with Grand Princess) you would most be likely doing the 14 day quarantine on a military base or similar, not the ship.

The base is probably a better scenario than the ship I would think in terms of risk of contracting this.

 

[Mainsail Minnie]

I wonder how many rooms can sail empty and still pay for the operating expenses of the boat, fuel, staff, food, etc. ?

Disney has more than doubled their cruise prices over the past dozen years. That increase way way way outpaced inflation, and they were never the cheapest cruise line to begin with, so they can certainly afford to sail less than full as long as most of those who sail pay full price. They've been trending towards that model, lately, anyway.