Folks who are so excited about VGF2

[Sandisw]

Whatever the price is, the fact that it’s for 40 more years, not the 50 and to me, that is significant. It’s not a new offering, yet when I read the pricing thread, folks have discounted that, or it’s not mentioned at all.

I’m not in the demographic that’s expected to buy these points. I have enough points, although I did recently buy 40 more HHI points before the last increase.

At 11 months, I used my VGF points for a stay this April. I hope to see the Easter Egg display like they have had in the past. I’m not anti VGF.

I think the shorter expiration is imbedded in why people think the price has to be comparable to RIV.

Shorter contract and now a studio heavy resort.

 

[SleeplessInTO]

That's not the worst case scenario. Plenty of DVC owners need APs to make this plan anywhere close to reasonably priced. The worst case scenario is that APs are gone and waaaay fewer people are going to be making multiple visits a year and don't need DVC anymore. That's me. DVC demand drops. DVC pricing drops.

I don't want to be left holding the bag when Disney parks have priced out us cheapskates and we all finally realize it's time to sell. Chapek has been very clear that is his goal, not an accident. Writing is on the wall.

DVC as a product doesn't make sense to me when even people like me who want APs and want to come multiple times only visit once a year or every other year. I'll just pay for my tickets and stay at Swolphin. I'm really struggling with whether I will even renew in October if APs are gone.

I've always assumed my DVC contract, my timeshare, is worth nothing. I don't rely on any sort of resale market, this isn't an investment for me. Its a vacation expense, pure and simple, with no financial return expected. So yes, actually, what I wrote is the worst case scenario for me - that I'm renting out my points and not enjoying them myself.

Your scenario sounds pretty good to me. I'd be happy to scoop up a contract or two for pennies when DVC pricing drops. Spending a few months at WDW seems easier than snowbirding in a condo in Florida anyways. Dare I also hope for fewer people in the parks in your scenario? (Nah, DVC isn't that big a component of park-goers.)

 

[bobbiwoz]

I think the shorter expiration is imbedded in why people think the price has to be comparable to RIV.

Shorter contract and now a studio heavy resort.

OK, I didn‘t realize that a price like RIV would mean a discount over what they used to sell VGF. That’s what I was missing.

 

[lowlight]

Your perception, with which I disagree as previously stated.

I can understand Disney's trying to draw buyers with different wants than the current studios may meet. It's a legitimate business endeavor, IMO.

The reason I think you’re wrong is that they didn’t do half as normal deluxe studios and half as resort studios. They also didn’t lessen points required. If these were 10 points less a night than deluxe studios I’d be inclined to agree with you. They aren’t dipping their toes in the water to sense demand, they went full in. If you look at Riviera and DLT, they have the “tower” rooms which provide the cheap points rooms for people who don’t need all that a deluxe studio provides.

 

[bobbiwoz]

The reason I think you’re wrong is that they didn’t do half as normal deluxe studios and half as resort studios. They also didn’t lessen points required. If these were 10 points less a night than deluxe studios I’d be inclined to agree with you. They aren’t dipping their toes in the water to sense demand, they went full in. If you look at Riviera and DLT, they have the “tower” rooms which provide the cheap points rooms for people who don’t need all that a deluxe studio provides.

The tower studio has a mini fridge and a microwave! They kept what many would consider basic necessities! We old timers considered them requirements for a studio!

 

[Sandisw]

The reason I think you’re wrong is that they didn’t do half as normal deluxe studios and half as resort studios. They also didn’t lessen points required. If these were 10 points less a night than deluxe studios I’d be inclined to agree with you. They aren’t dipping their toes in the water to sense demand, they went full in. If you look at Riviera and DLT, they have the “tower” rooms which provide the cheap points rooms for people who don’t need all that a deluxe studio provides.

I agree with you. If this type of room was in the works with Reflections, I might say it was something they had thought about as a long term strategy.

But, the quick turnaround leads me to believe it’s not. And, while there is no microwave right now, I am not yet convinced they won’t be added later. Maybe they wanted to make sure they could supply and equip them before changing the POS to say they would include them.

Now, I think that if this goes well, this strategy may become something they do on purpose.

 

[Her Dotness]

The reason I think you’re wrong is that they didn’t do half as normal deluxe studios and half as resort studios. They also didn’t lessen points required. If these were 10 points less a night than deluxe studios I’d be inclined to agree with you. They aren’t dipping their toes in the water to sense demand, they went full in. If you look at Riviera and DLT, they have the “tower” rooms which provide the cheap points rooms for people who don’t need all that a deluxe studio provides.

While it's true I may be all wrong about what newbie buyers and some current owners want, I think you could be underestimating the possibility there are more out there than we're aware who think the resort studios are a great idea.

I don't think they're comparable to the RIV tower ones at all and thus shouldn't be points-priced lower. These are almost 100 sq. ft. bigger than the existing VGF studios. At 255 sq. ft., the tower ones are TINY.

The new RStus sleep 5, not 2--and those 2 in RIV are in a Murphy rather than a "real bed" which quite a few prefer.

As for the idea that Disney didn't make half kitchenette studios and half not or cut the point cost, why would they? Design and construction costs would undoubtedly be somewhat higher had they done it half and half. Those have to have been a big consideration vs. simply refurbing the existing BPC rooms and dubbing them DVC studios.

Ultimately, we'll see if these are DVC's Galactic Starcruiser minus roleplay and bizarre-colored foods.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I wonder if anybody's done a break-even analysis anywhere near recently? I know when I bought in it was about 10 years, but it can't be anywhere near 10 years anymore given direct pricing relative to CRO. Anybody run any numbers lately? I'm just curious.

 

[lowlight]

I wonder if anybody's done a break-even analysis anywhere near recently? I know when I bought in it was about 10 years, but it can't be anywhere near 10 years anymore given direct pricing relative to CRO. Anybody run any numbers lately? I'm just curious.

For VGF points specifically, or any property? I know when I added on my last contract a few years ago at 170ish dollars a point, staying in a studio in one of the consistent top 3 DVC weeks for demand and therefore points (first week of December), using a fancy spreadsheet that floated around here several years ago that took into account rack rate increases, , time value of money, dues increases, etc., it estimated it would take me 7-8 years of visiting when, where, and how I wanted to break even. Of course, I had factored in AP savings among other things, so I'm not sure where that puts it these days. One thing I did learn during that research is that DVC point rentals are massively underpriced after going up under $1/year since 2008. I'd be curious to know what's keeping rental points so artificially low, since the demand is enormous and cash room discounts are (from what I hear) not so frequent anymore.

 

[sndral]

I hope you're right about those who buy in not having an impact on VGF1 availability. I have serious misgivings about the imbalance of rooms.

And regardless of demand, this is a quick and dirty conversion to grab some easy cash at a resort that has historically had difficulty selling hotel rooms.

I was pretty set on buying VGF2, but this quick cash grab cheap conversion is a bit off putting.
I’m also rethinking because my visit in Dec. was less than thanks to Disney’s changes. We had APs but even trying to use the LLs we didn’t get as much done - couldn’t really plan our days because who knew what ride we’d get when. & we really missed ‘free’ park hopping, we felt trapped in our a.m. park until the witching hour of 2 p.m. hit. I was ok w/ the ILL$ except the night Remy broke & we were sitting on previously purchased ILL$ & when the ride reopened the ILL$ line was anything but fast, EMH at Epcot was a bust - again because Remy was down the whole time thus the line for frozen was insane. MK evening EMH at 2 hours just wasn’t long enough to ride everything. And park hours were fewer in every park & we missed the longer hours we used to get. & it was our last DME ride - so add another complication/expense next trip + schlepping our luggage . I can afford to pay more, but I don’t like paying more & getting less.
And then there’s the horrible tech that is DVC & Disney - the Olafs & 7dwarves when trying to book something, the whole Y/ND tech debacle, the 50% borrowing restriction w/ the never fixed tech issue of some owners unable to borrow w/out an hour+ call to MS. The little things like the stupid phone’s not opening doors.
I’ve still not forgiven DVC for the resale Riviera restrictions which IMO was a huge change in how the system works & cheapened the whole product making it more sleazy timeshare-esque IMO. Add in DVC’s recent lock-off point grab attempt.
Each of these issues individually I could adjust to, but all together it starts to add up.
Most likely if our annual visit next Dec. is less work & more rewarding I’ll nevertheless buy then - we’ll be in a VGF 1 br. for 12 days, so the temptation will be there .

 

[CaptainAmerica]

What about the “No AP’s for sale” policy? Do you think that’s temporary? What about the GENIE+, LL effects on park enjoyment? I am curious because the VGF2 pricing thread seems to indicate that DVC members are so happy with things now that they are just opening their wallets for Disney.

I am not happy with Disney right now, and I feel they have devalued my VGF1 points.

I never used an AP and I like Genie+.

Most of the other stuff that I'm unhappy about is COVID-related, and I'll wait to see how permanent it is before I get upset.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

OK, I didn‘t realize that a price like RIV would mean a discount over what they used to sell VGF. That’s what I was missing.

Personally I don't think DVC thinks of pricing that way. Historically they price at a similar level to the current resort in active sales and then do minor adjustments with incentives if they want to increase sales for a period or slow down sales. I've mentioned in the past that BCV was originally sold with 42 years right from the start and that's what the new 2Million VGF points will have. That it was higher than RIV before this was because it was "sold out" so Disney's recovery of points was thru foreclosure and ROFR - a much higher cost to them than selling a "new" resort. Also IMO they began pricing sold out resorts higher because they don't really want to sell them but do get points back and do have owners than at times are interested in adding a few more. That's fine with DVC but they haven't wanted to price them to be just as appealing as their new resorts to new buyers. They wouldn't have made the same amount of money selling a 200 point contract at VGF last year as they would selling a 200 points contract at RIV and in the end DVC/Disney wants that larger profit.

 

[RoseGold]

Your scenario sounds pretty good to me. I'd be happy to scoop up a contract or two for pennies when DVC pricing drops. Spending a few months at WDW seems easier than snowbirding in a condo in Florida anyways. Dare I also hope for fewer people in the parks in your scenario? (Nah, DVC isn't that big a component of park-goers.)

If that's your goal, you can do it now in Wyndham, much cheaper than DVC. If I wanted to stay in a nice resort in Florida, it wouldn't be at Disney, next to some theme parks I've been priced out of in hotels swarming with kids. Heck, one of the Disney bloggers stayed at one of the Hiltons I had never heard of and it had a gorgeous lazy river. Even near Disney, there is a LOT of competition, with objectively nicer hotels.

 

[Her Dotness]

Even near Disney, there is a LOT of competition, with objectively nicer hotels.

What? You mean no bubble?

 

[RoseGold]

What? You mean no bubble?

If I'm priced out of the parks (no APs), I'm not going to Florida at all. But if I were, there are objectively nicer hotels competing with Disney, and a lot of them.

 

[Brian Noble]

You mean no bubble?

Depending on what you mean by that, not necessarily. All of the properties in the Bonnet Creek area "feel like" they are in the bubble, even though legally and technically they are not. That plot is not part of RCID, but is landlocked by it on three sides and I-4 on the fourth, and is only accessible via Buena Vista Drive. We often drive past the Bonnet Creek entrance between SSR/OKW and other WDW destinations. It includes the (in)famous Wyndham Bonnet Creek timeshare property, which is enough of a sore point with DVC that they parked a snarky 3D billboard right outside the entrance where people sitting at the traffic light leaving Bonnet are staring at it. "DVC: Vacation Ownership with True Character."

(For the record, we like our Wyndham Bonnet vacations about as much as OKW and SSR. There are some things we liked better about the two DVC resorts; other things we liked better about Wyndham. The vacation experiences overall are comparable for us.)

I think the Four Seasons was de-annexed but is also landlocked, but I could be wrong about that. You don't visibly leave the bubble to get to Silver Lake, though you do leave it when you round the "big corner" of Sherberth on the way, and it has another non-RCID entrance. The Swolphins are on RCID land, but do not charge Disney prices. The Disney Springs area resorts are arguably in-bubble too, but some consider that stretching it.

 

[TinkB278]

I never used an AP and I like Genie+.

Most of the other stuff that I'm unhappy about is COVID-related, and I'll wait to see how permanent it is before I get upset.

I just feel like if the Covid stuff hasn’t changed by now, it most likely is permanent. They aren’t restricting capacity in any manner so none of their decisions are due to safety at this point.

 

[DVCsloth]

Love VGF, but not excited about the Studio only VGF2. I guess they needed to update the Hotel and figured this was the most cost-effective way to do it. I imagine the walkway was pretty expensive as well. Still love VGF but probably won't be adding anymore points.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I just feel like if the Covid stuff hasn’t changed by now, it most likely is permanent. They aren’t restricting capacity in any manner so none of their decisions are due to safety at this point.

"Because of COVID" and "because of safety" are not always the same thing.

COVID has caused a nationwide labor shortage that isn't helped by the fact that our borders are still basically closed to new legal immigration.

 

[gregskellington]

"Because of COVID" and "because of safety" are not always the same thing.

COVID has caused a nationwide labor shortage that isn't helped by the fact that our borders are still basically closed to new legal immigration.

Not to mention ongoing massive supply chain issues.